Long Range Models

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO continues to show a low emerge Africa.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8071700!!/

[Frank2]

True, July has been unusually busy so far, but, there have been many seasons that started out this way and ended quietly, or vice versa, so, each season is unique, and, no one down here can say what the rest of the season will bring...

Frank

[blp]

The EURO has developed this low on four consecutive runs. This has caought my eye considering it is not the most bullish of the models.

The GFS has been off and on with it. With the 12Z GFS being quite bullish with it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

The CMC has a weaker low on two consecutive runs.
12Z CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

The UKMet is also picking it up but seems to be the weakest.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

One thing I noticed is that if this low develops the models depict it will be a big system. Also, I noticed that the Azores High seems to be a little further West than normal on the runs so that could be why this might be able to develop.

We have only had two systems but I was curious so far this year which of the globals have had the better accuracy in predicting cyclogensis in the medium range? Last year I think the GFS with Dean and a few others was probably the best.

[KWT]

This is interesting sutff because it reminds me of how the models went when they forecasted Bertha to develop, needs to be watched closely because there have been some strong waves come off so far this season.

[Meso]

00z EURO still on the idea

[Ed Mahmoud]

00z EURO still on the idea

A second July Cape Verde storm, if the Euro is correct...

[KWT]

Got an upper high to its north and the ECM does strengthen the system by 240hrs once again. Also still below 20N by about 50W though its too early to even have a guess at any possible track.

[blp]

00Z Ukmet picking up on a weak low for the 2nd run. Ukmet has also been conservative this year.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

06Z GFS a little stronger than the 00Z.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

Looks like the low will move off the coast in about 120hrs.

[SouthFloridawx]

So I was looking at the GFS 18Z model run tonight. I know the 18Z isn't as accurate as the 00 or 12Z runs, but what struck me was... Low pressure after low pressure coming off of Africa. I think we're in for a very active hurricane season this year.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

So I was looking at the GFS 18Z model run tonight. I know the 18Z isn't as accurate as the 00 or 12Z runs, but what struck me was... Low pressure after low pressure coming off of Africa. I think we're in for a very active hurricane season this year.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

I would have to agree with that. Signs are there that there should be several long-tracking CV storms this year. Synoptics look good with above normal SSTs just off of Africa and the wave train has been cranking since the start of hurricane season back in June. We should find out very soon, the CV season officially kicks off Aug. 15 in about 2 1/2 weeks.

[jhamps10]

So I was looking at the GFS 18Z model run tonight. I know the 18Z isn't as accurate as the 00 or 12Z runs, but what struck me was... Low pressure after low pressure coming off of Africa. I think we're in for a very active hurricane season this year.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

I would have to agree with that. Signs are there that there should be several long-tracking CV storms this year. Synoptics look good with above normal SSTs just off of Africa and the wave train has been cranking since the start of hurricane season back in June. We should find out very soon, the CV season officially kicks off Aug. 15 in about 2 1/2 weeks.

you mean your saying it hasn't kicked off yet.... Bertha and Dolly both came from CV waves, and it looks like we could get 2 more storms off of CV waves before the month ends.

[njweather]

Anyone know what the 06zGFS is getting at in the Gulf of Mexico at 96 hours:



3 small areas of low pressure?

Edit:

For what it's worth, EURO shows an open Low in the same area at 96 hours:

[N2Storms]

[quote="njweather"]Anyone know what the 06zGFS is getting at in the Gulf of Mexico at 96 hours:

[img]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2008072406/slp16.png[/img]

3 small areas of low pressure?

Edit:

For what it's worth, EURO shows an open Low in the same area at 96 hours:

[img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008072400!!chart.gif[/img][/quote]



Possibly another Cristobal type set up in the Gulf?

[cheezyWXguy]

Well 0z GFS shows a storm developing near the cape verde islands at hour 192. It tracks west across the catl, gradually strengthening, then hits puerto rico and is shown as an open wave. Soon after the wave closes off near the eastern bahamas and strengthens moving up the coast toward the carolinas.

[Meso]

Latest CMC run continuing with the showing of a busy CV season, though nothing guarenteed of course since it showed 2 storms this week, although it appears one of those may materialize

[cycloneye]

Since this is the thread for long range model runs,here is the most longest timeframe as you can get,384 hours.I know its pure fantasyland,but only being on August 12th,when things may turn more favorable in the Atlantic,that is why I am posting It,here is what it shows SW of the CV islands.

[Derek Ortt]

what is with saying things turn mroe favorable in August?

The mets have said here on multiple times that the MJO has little to no influence outside of the GOM and WC

That said, many yeras have featured a break during this time of year. Even, 2005 had a break in activity between Harvey and the heart of the season

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, huge, boldy assertive, if unofficial prediction. No more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic until August.


Way, way out on a limb.

I'm a loner, Dotty, a rebel.

[RL3AO]

OK, huge, boldy assertive, if unofficial prediction. No more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic until August.


Way, way out on a limb.

I'm a loner, Dotty, a rebel.

No more TCs for four days! No way that will ever happen.

[Meso]

Interesting feature on the Gulf coast per the 12z GFS