TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[ConvergenceZone]

I just don't see how the smaller blob could take over at this point. The area of convection on the northern side of this huge circulation is very intense. Almost looks like Florence wants to split in two, but I don't think that's possible.

I think the smaller blob is trying to wrap the larger blob around it. Hopefully the larger blob will dominate but I think it is going to get sheared to bits as the night wears on.

perhaps we should rename this thread "The Battle of the Blobs"

[jaxfladude]

00Z GFS shifts further west
18Z GFS 138 hours
00Z GFS 174 hours

I DO NOT LIKE THAT SETUP AS GFS SEES IT!!!
In the words of Hurricane Girl: Holy Crap!!!
I hope that is shows a turn to the north followed by a turn more to the NE and out to sea after a scare and not a hit on the US East Coast........

[windnrain]

That's what it looks like to me, Gator, but it almost looks like that smaller thing is trying to pick up that other blob and hunch it on its shoulders, like an ant.. its sapping energy from it, and I think that this may dramatically change forecasts... this thing may be heading for the US, guys, even maybe the gulf...

[Stratosphere747]

Windrain....

Read the 11pm disco and it explains what you are seeing...

[gatorcane]

That's what it looks like to me, Gator, but it almost looks like that smaller thing is trying to pick up that other blob and hunch it on its shoulders, like an ant.. its sapping energy from it, and I think that this may dramatically change forecasts... this thing may be heading for the US, guys, even maybe the gulf...

well its all about trends...if tomorrow AM we are not seeing it gain much lattitude then I think it is possible......I hope it pulls up tonight and gets back on a WNW movement....

[Brent]

That's what it looks like to me, Gator, but it almost looks like that smaller thing is trying to pick up that other blob and hunch it on its shoulders, like an ant.. its sapping energy from it, and I think that this may dramatically change forecasts... this thing may be heading for the US, guys, even maybe the gulf...

well its all about trends...if tomorrow AM we are not seeing it gain much lattitude then I think it is possible......I hope it pulls up tonight and gets back on a WNW movement....

Agreed.

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL turns Florence to the north about 1° sooner than the previous run...but as before, the northwest movement it forecasts during the 12h-30h period seems dubious.

WHXX04 KWBC 060530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.4 49.0 285./ 9.9
6 17.5 49.6 285./ 5.9
12 18.0 50.0 322./ 6.2
18 18.6 50.4 327./ 7.0
24 19.6 50.7 342./10.2
30 20.5 51.5 317./11.7
36 21.2 52.4 307./10.7
42 21.9 53.3 311./10.5
48 22.4 54.1 302./ 9.7
54 22.9 55.3 291./11.9
60 23.4 56.4 295./10.8
66 23.7 57.6 285./11.8
72 24.1 58.4 296./ 8.0
78 24.5 59.6 290./12.0
84 25.0 60.6 298./10.1
90 25.7 61.6 303./11.5
96 26.3 62.3 311./ 8.3
102 27.0 63.0 317./ 9.8
108 28.0 63.6 327./10.6
114 28.8 63.9 341./ 9.0
120 29.7 64.0 350./ 8.9
126 30.7 64.0 1./ 9.9

[Derek Ortt]

the GFDL again is probably too far right

However, the UKMET now has a similar solution

Chances of an EC landfall seem to be decreasing and the threat for Bermuda may be increasing

[SouthFloridawx]

Florence is still trying to get her groove on.

[StrongWind]

Will that ULL that's digging south to the west of Florence slow or block her westward movement?

[Fego]

Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 am EDT Wed Sep 06 2006

...Special feature...
the center of Tropical Storm Florence at 06/0300 UTC is near
17.7n 49.5w moving west-northwest 10 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat1/wtnt21 knhc
and the public advisory under miatcpat1/wtnt31 knhc for more
details. Numerous strong showers and thunderstorms from 17.5n
to 20.5n between 45w and 49w. Another area of some cells of
strong convective precipitation is from 16n to 17n between 50w
and 51w. Scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms
from 9n to 11n between 48w and 57w. Isolated moderate showers
from 12n to 15n between 45w and 50w.

Well, still WNW, according to the NHC.

[SouthAlabamaWX]

Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 am EDT Wed Sep 06 2006

...Special feature...
the center of Tropical Storm Florence at 06/0300 UTC is near
17.7n 49.5w moving west-northwest 10 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat1/wtnt21 knhc
and the public advisory under miatcpat1/wtnt31 knhc for more
details. Numerous strong showers and thunderstorms from 17.5n
to 20.5n between 45w and 49w. Another area of some cells of
strong convective precipitation is from 16n to 17n between 50w
and 51w. Scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms
from 9n to 11n between 48w and 57w. Isolated moderate showers
from 12n to 15n between 45w and 50w.

Well, still WNW, according to the NHC.

The NHC will not change the direction or location on this discussion. They will use the 0300 UTC position and direction until the next advisory is issued.

[Zardoz]

...Well, still WNW, according to the NHC.

I don't get it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

All I see is due west, or maybe slightly south of west.

[mesocyclone]

The latest image they are showing us is 345 utc which is 11:45pm est that was three hours ago. Whats goin on?

[superfly]

Eclipse, happens every night.

[SouthFLTropics]

we should come out of the eclipse probably sometime in the next hour or two...I hate the eclipse but it is just one of those satellite issues we have to deal with. Just look at it this way...it's like waiting for a Christmas present...you never know what the next image is going to look like and its a big suprise!!!

[BUD]

What time does the next model runs come out?????

[Fego]

Those last frames shows, IMO, a WNW movement. If not, my eyes need a rest.

[SouthFLTropics]

Those last frames shows, IMO, a WNW movement. If not, my eyes need a rest.

Well, it is very difficult to tell at this point in time. I would suspect though that even though it may appear to be a west of even south of west movement right now to some people that it is most likely a mean of WNW. Considering I don't have a doctorate in meteorology and I don't work with the NHC I'll trust them when they tell me that it is heading WNW, although they readily admit right now that the center is difficult to locate. After the eclipse we should have a good idea on what direction it is headed because the change will be dramatic due to the missing frames on the sat pic.

[clfenwi]

first post-eclipse look from GOES.