GOM System (Ex 95L)

[Portastorm]

I'm glad you guys posted something on this ... I saw that as well this morning but then dismissed my own interest as nothing more than wish-casting. The morning discussion from NHC said nothing about it and the NWS forecast offices along the Gulf didn't seem too concerned ... so I figured why should I be?

Nevertheless, the facts are presenting themselves and, like yesterday morning, convection is looking more impressive. I guess persistence is the key and if it continues all day and into the night, then we should be more concerned?!

[Portastorm]

This system looks interesting and it reminds me of the beginnings of Charley 1998. Today's increase of convection, with lots of convergence going on, could strengthen the weak area of low pressure there. This could be a quick developer for the Texas coastline.

If it does develop, it will have less than 72 hours for strengthening, so hopefully, it'll be just a blessing for Texas. Upper-level winds are not very conducive for development, but not prohibitive of a tropical depression or storm.

This has caught my eye...

BTW, that storm gives me heebee-geebees. I was in Houston for Charley and remember the rain ... but what I remember more is what Charley did to Del Rio, Texas, as a dying tropical system. It wiped out a poorer section of town and created a lot of misery down there.

[Sanibel]

Too Weak.


I'm gambling no development.

[Yankeegirl]

Are we supposed to get any rain outta this ?? or do we have a 30% chance of rain to be different.. lol... ?

[Air Force Met]

The loop current is interesting. It has broken off and is now very close to the LA coast. If anything gets in there over the next week or two...it won't weaken as much as it approaches the coast.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6228go.jpg

[Stratosphere747]

The loop current is interesting. It has broken off and is now very close to the LA coast. If anything gets in there over the next week or two...it won't weaken as much as it approaches the coast.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6228go.jpg

The one I've been using does not show that....?

http://tinyurl.com/rfucv

[teal61]

Interesting looking cloud formation in the middle Gulf this evening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rgb-l.jpg

I'm in the breakroom at work on dial-up so I can't really loop it. JB says there is a mlc about 28/90 but it looks to me like it's a little further sw than that.

[Stratosphere747]

Interesting looking cloud formation in the middle Gulf this evening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rgb-l.jpg

I'm in the breakroom at work on dial-up so I can't really loop it. JB says there is a mlc about 28/90 but it looks to me like it's a little further sw than that.

There is a definite spin at about the area JB mentions.....

[Air Force Met]

The loop current is interesting. It has broken off and is now very close to the LA coast. If anything gets in there over the next week or two...it won't weaken as much as it approaches the coast.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6228go.jpg

The one I've been using does not show that....?

http://tinyurl.com/rfucv

That's because I posted the heat content...and you are looking at SST's.

I don't look at SST's. Heat content is far more important than SST's...which is the reason why a storm appoaching the northern GOM coast...with water temps of 86-88 degrees can weaken...because the TCHP...or heat potential is not there.

It's more about the total available energy in the water than what is right at the surface. It could be 91 degrees at the sfc...but if there is no depth to it...it means nothing.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

[benny]

The loop current is interesting. It has broken off and is now very close to the LA coast. If anything gets in there over the next week or two...it won't weaken as much as it approaches the coast.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6228go.jpg

The one I've been using does not show that....?

http://tinyurl.com/rfucv

That's because I posted the heat content...and you are looking at SST's.

I don't look at SST's. Heat content is far more important than SST's...which is the reason why a storm appoaching the northern GOM coast...with water temps of 86-88 degrees can weaken...because the TCHP...or heat potential is not there.

It's more about the total available energy in the water than what is right at the surface. It could be 91 degrees at the sfc...but if there is no depth to it...it means nothing.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

All of that heat potential stuff is irrelevant for tropical storms.. it takes such a miniscule amount of heat to support one. Even weak hurricanes... you need a potential aoa 20 or so? very small. major hurricanes are different beasts...

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not so sure of that

Take Alberto. It blew up over the Loop Current and collapsed on its final approach. The same with Helene in 2000

[Air Force Met]

All of that heat potential stuff is irrelevant for tropical storms.. it takes such a miniscule amount of heat to support one. Even weak hurricanes... you need a potential aoa 20 or so? very small. major hurricanes are different beasts...

Well Benny...I'm not talking about tropical storms. Of course a minor TS can be supported by a lower TCHP.

IF you will go back to my original post (about storms weakening as they approach the coast)...you would summize that I am speaking of stronger storms in the GOM that tend to weaken before landfall.

However, it is NOT irrelevent for TS, as you say. Weak tropical storms are much more likley to go postal over an area of high heat content (give good upper air environment) than a TS in an area of low heat content (give the same environment). I refer you to Wilma of last year...which was over an area of very high heat content as a TS. Had she been over a TCHP of 20 or so...we would not have that record on file.

That is a fact. Therefore, I sumbit to you it is not irrelevant.

[windycity]

Wow, i think thats very interesting about the loop current. A few months ago , i noticed the loop current had more of a northern component to it,maybe an extention of the edy vortex?

[bayoubebe]

So, is this(system in the gulf) something that could still happen or not?

[skysummit]

So, is this(system in the gulf) something that could still happen or not?

Nope...this system is long gone.

[Yankeegirl]

Shoot... I would like a little rain maker...

[southerngale]

Shoot... I would like a little rain maker...

Come visit me...I'll plan a BBQ. No doubt you'll see rain.