Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[P.K.]

No change:

WHXX01 KWBC 031231
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060103 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060103 1200 060104 0000 060104 1200 060105 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 41.9W 23.4N 40.7W 23.3N 40.3W 22.9N 40.1W
BAMM 23.0N 41.9W 22.8N 42.2W 22.5N 42.9W 22.5N 43.9W
A98E 23.0N 41.9W 22.7N 42.6W 22.4N 43.1W 21.9N 43.3W
LBAR 23.0N 41.9W 23.2N 41.6W 23.9N 41.3W 24.7N 41.4W
SHIP 55KTS 46KTS 32KTS 15KTS
DSHP 55KTS 46KTS 32KTS 15KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060105 1200 060106 1200 060107 1200 060108 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.3N 38.7W 21.4N 34.6W 20.6N 30.5W 21.8N 23.1W
BAMM 23.1N 44.6W 25.4N 45.0W 24.6N 48.6W 25.8N 54.0W
A98E 22.6N 43.4W 23.2N 42.1W 23.0N 42.7W 19.4N 42.3W
LBAR 26.0N 41.6W 28.4N 41.3W 29.4N 40.6W 27.9N 41.4W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 41.9W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 23.5N LONM12 = 41.0W DIRM12 = 242DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 23.8N LONM24 = 40.4W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 100NM

[JamesFromMaine2]

I wonder if they even looked at the latest windsat before starting the models! lol like I said theres way to much 60kt winds for it to be bad data and I don't even think its in the center so there could be even stronger winds closer to the center!

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!! It's up to 65 mph!! Go Zeta Go!!

[cjrciadt]

[HURAKAN]

[lester]

so, so true

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING REALLY GOOD THIS MORNING!

DO YOU HEAR THAT GRACE? YOU ARE BEING BEATEN BY A DECEMBER-JANUARY STORM!!!!

[HURAKAN]

03/1145 UTC 23.1N 41.6W T3.5/3.5 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean


BACK ONCE AGAIN TO 3.5/3.5

[cjrciadt]

[EDR1222]

Zeta sure looks to be holding its own this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 031718
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JAN 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.0 41.9 240./ 5.0
6 22.8 41.8 156./ 1.7
12 22.8 42.1 274./ 2.9
18 22.7 42.7 259./ 5.3
24 22.8 43.3 277./ 5.4
30 22.9 43.9 283./ 6.0
36 23.1 44.5 289./ 6.0
42 23.7 44.9 330./ 6.8
48 24.4 45.1 342./ 6.9
54 25.4 45.0 4./10.5
60 26.4 44.8 12./ 9.8
66 27.3 44.6 12./ 9.2
72 27.8 44.4 27./ 5.5
78 28.0 44.1 46./ 3.4
84 28.0 44.0 105./ 1.0
90 27.6 44.3 223./ 4.8
96 27.1 45.3 241./10.4
102 26.7 46.7 255./13.0
108 26.7 48.4 269./15.0
114 27.1 50.1 285./16.0
120 28.3 51.2 317./15.4
126 30.4 51.4 356./20.4


12z GFDL hangs on Zeta for 126 more hours.

[cjrciadt]

Hey cycloneye, 126 model runs later it will say 126 more hrs!!!

[cycloneye]

Hey cycloneye, 126 model runs later it will say 126 more hrs!!!

Good one my friend.

[cycloneye]

03/1745 UTC 22.9N 42.1W T3.5/3.5 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean


No change from this morning.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060103 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060103 1800 060104 0600 060104 1800 060105 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.2N 42.2W 22.9N 41.8W 22.4N 41.7W 22.0N 40.3W
BAMM 23.2N 42.2W 22.9N 42.8W 22.7N 43.8W 23.0N 44.7W
A98E 23.2N 42.2W 23.2N 42.7W 23.0N 43.1W 22.9N 43.3W
LBAR 23.2N 42.2W 23.3N 41.9W 23.8N 41.9W 24.6N 42.1W
SHIP 55KTS 45KTS 30KTS 0KTS
DSHP 55KTS 45KTS 30KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060105 1800 060106 1800 060107 1800 060108 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 37.4W 20.8N 32.3W 21.0N 22.9W 24.4N 8.4E
BAMM 24.4N 45.3W 26.9N 45.9W 25.9N 49.6W 27.3N 53.8W
A98E 24.3N 43.2W 24.3N 42.6W 23.2N 43.8W 19.1N 44.7W
LBAR 26.0N 42.4W 28.0N 41.8W 28.6N 41.2W 27.6N 43.5W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 42.2W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 248DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 23.6N LONM24 = 40.8W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 100NM



18:00z Model guidance does not have any change in intensity still at 55kts.

[Astro_man92]

To my untrained eye's Zeta's looking like crap! doesn't look like it'll make hurricane status


EDIT: is that trough doing anything to it???

[brunota2003]

From the 4 P.M.:

There is an upper-level trough practically superimposed
on the storm at this time. This trough should continue to move
eastward...and strong northwesterly flow in its wake is likely to
begin to disrupt the system in 12-24 hours. So...although you've
heard this from US before...we expect a weakening trend to commence
tomorrow.

[Weather Watcher]

HANG ON ZETA HANG ON!!!

[EDR1222]

From the 4 P.M.:

There is an upper-level trough practically superimposed
on the storm at this time. This trough should continue to move
eastward...and strong northwesterly flow in its wake is likely to
begin to disrupt the system in 12-24 hours. So...although you've
heard this from US before...we expect a weakening trend to commence
tomorrow.

They must be having flashbacks to Epsilon!

[dhweather]

I never thought I'd bee looking at a tropical Atlantic system in January.

Maybe it's time for a special edition EATS OUT!