95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Forecaster Colby]

Yeah. I have to chuckle that, based on 11:30 TWO, they're getting ready to upgrade it now.

[MiamiensisWx]

OK, it's gone! Goodbye, Delta!

Just joking...

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest Tropical Weather Outlook...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231603
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST WED NOV 23 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG AND LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
AZORES ISLANDS IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS
CONTINUING TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER WARMER WATER...
AND IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TPC TROPICAL ANALYSIS
AND FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KNHC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[JamesFromMaine2]

could it really be more organized then we had thought and could it be going through a ERC since it looks alot worse now and the eye is clouded and everything?

[Forecaster Colby]

It's not an ERC...it never had a true eyewall to replace anyway. What we're seeing is it transitioning to fully tropical under high shear.

[cycloneye]

781

WTNT80 EGRR 231745



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.11.2005



TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION: 27.2N 40.2W





VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.12.2005 27.2N 40.2W WEAK STRENGHENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.11.2005 26.2N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.11.2005 25.4N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.11.2005 24.3N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.11.2005 22.8N 40.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.11.2005 22.0N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.11.2005 23.7N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 27.11.2005 24.2N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.11.2005 26.2N 38.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 28.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



12z UKMET.

[MiamiensisWx]

Shear had increased earlier today and, although it is now decreasing, it is generally decreasing gradually. The latest UKMET run now dosn't have much faith in developing it.

[WindRunner]

Shear had increased earlier today and, although it is now decreasing, it is generally decreasing gradually. The latest UKMET run now dosn't have much faith in developing it.

It's better than some other runs I've seen this season, though.

[cjrciadt]

[WindRunner]

Nothing this season has looked this good under this much shear before developing.

[Forecaster Colby]

Shear tendency map shows -10 to -20kts/day

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A 986 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 27N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES
FROM 34N34W TO 30N30W TO 24N30W 16N40W 14N46W 15N55W. THE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACCORDING TO THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS COVERS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 16N TO 35N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W. ONE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS NEAR 28N32W. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N41W. THE TROUGH
RUNS THROUGH THIS AREA OF THE ATLANTIC TO 19N44W TO 12N46W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...COUNTING THE
DRY AIR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N21W 21N31W 16N40W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY IS FOUND AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER FROM 25N TO 28N
BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO ACQUIRE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER WARMER WATER...AND IT COULD
BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.



1 PM EST Discussion.

[Forecaster Colby]

A Delta? For me?

[MiamiensisWx]

The pressure is higher and weaker than before.

[MiamiensisWx]

A Delta? For me?

Maybe we should back down on expecting that...

[MiamiensisWx]

It's not an ERC...it never had a true eyewall to replace anyway. What we're seeing is it transitioning to fully tropical under high shear.

You mean TRYING to transition to tropical status under shear. Also, even though the winds have been increased in the models to 50KT, it still looks less organized than before.

[Forecaster Colby]

I meant what I said.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL952005) ON 20051123 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051123 1800 051124 0600 051124 1800 051125 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.3N 40.6W 24.0N 38.8W 23.4N 35.8W 24.3N 33.4W
BAMM 26.3N 40.6W 25.2N 39.1W 25.0N 37.7W 25.2N 37.3W
A98E 26.3N 40.6W 24.6N 40.1W 22.7N 38.6W 22.4N 35.4W
LBAR 26.3N 40.6W 24.9N 39.4W 25.1N 37.6W 27.1N 35.9W
SHIP 50KTS 51KTS 49KTS 50KTS
DSHP 50KTS 51KTS 49KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051125 1800 051126 1800 051127 1800 051128 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.8N 31.9W 28.8N 28.1W 29.4N 16.3W 28.5N 5.0E
BAMM 25.4N 37.6W 27.4N 38.2W 31.7N 38.3W 36.4N 38.8W
A98E 22.6N 32.2W 21.6N 26.9W 23.0N 22.0W 23.8N 18.1W
LBAR 29.0N 34.8W 31.8N 35.0W 32.9N 35.7W 31.3N 33.7W
SHIP 50KTS 49KTS 51KTS 54KTS
DSHP 50KTS 49KTS 51KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.3N LONCUR = 40.6W DIRCUR = 170DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 28.6N LONM12 = 40.8W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 30.7N LONM24 = 40.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 250NM RD34NW = 300NM


18:00z Models.They upped to 50kts this afternoon from 45kts this morning.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... I know, cycloneye. Still, it looks poorer than yesterday and earlier on current satellite imagery.

[Forecaster Colby]

How did that post move down?