2023 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern Pacific south of the
coast of El Salvador is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally
westward, and an area of low pressure is expected to form off the
coast of southern Mexico later this weekend. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is forecast and a tropical depression
will likely form early next week while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located south of the coast of Guatemala is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression will likely form early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to
the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Invest 96E is up.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the lid is coming off in the EPAC with the GFS showing three hurricanes in the next 14 days. Given the strengthening El Nino, I expect the EPAC to crank out a lot of hurricanes this season with several majors:

Saved loop:

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the lid is coming off in the EPAC with the GFS showing three hurricanes in the next 14 days. Given the strengthening El Nino, I expect the EPAC to crank out a lot of hurricanes this season.

Saved loop:
https://i.postimg.cc/VLCqGMKx/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-fh6-384.gif

Just out of curiosity, what are your thoughts on the -PDO?

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like the lid is coming off in the EPAC with the GFS showing three hurricanes in the next 14 days. Given the strengthening El Nino, I expect the EPAC to crank out a lot of hurricanes this season with several majors:

Saved loop:
https://i.postimg.cc/VLCqGMKx/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-fh6-384.gif

I rarely believe any GFS prediction after TAU 180.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the lid is coming off in the EPAC with the GFS showing three hurricanes in the next 14 days. Given the strengthening El Nino, I expect the EPAC to crank out a lot of hurricanes this season with several majors:

Saved loop:
https://i.postimg.cc/VLCqGMKx/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-fh6-384.gif

2 of the 3 systems look believable although the Euro and CMC don't agree much on intensity.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS now shows four hurricanes forming in the EPAC over the next 14 days.

[cycloneye]

Southwest of southern Baja California:
A small area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California is producing a few showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Clear TC btw.

[zzzh]

Yep, this is a TD.

[cycloneye]

Here comes the other one models develop.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form late this week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some gradual
development is possible by the upcoming weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwest of southern Baja California:
A small area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California is still producing a few
showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system
is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

Not really sure why it's still 10/10 when it has a closed circulation...

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

2. Central East Pacific:
A small area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to
produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions do not appear to be conducive for development of this
system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form late this week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some gradual
development is possible by the upcoming weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 AM Pacific:

2. Central East Pacific:
A small area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to
produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
proximity of nearby dry air is likely to prevent significant
development of this system while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form towards the end of this week a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible by the weekend while
it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has a fantastic UL environment and as a result consistently goes below 950 mbar. ECMWF barely has any development.

[Ntxw]

Could be two big hurricanes simultaneously at some point if the second one is real from the models.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form late this week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some gradual
development of this system is possible by the weekend while it
moves west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

It looks like this basin will surpass in a easy way, the average ACE threshold with Dora and future Eugene. As of August 1, is below average with 43.3 vs 25.4.

Source=CSU.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[cycloneye]

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form towards the latter part
of this week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern
Mexico. Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel
to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.