2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

The beginnings of Meranti showing up nicely over the Philippine sea as it is embedded within a surface trough from Mindanao to Guam. Latest EURO run takes this over the Philippines and into the SCS and strengthens it into a TS 6 days from now...

[mrbagyo]

CMC is also on board with Meranti on their 12Z run, striking Central Luzon then into... Pearl River Delta?
GFS - nothing

For now let's wait and see if that bunch of convection between Mindanao and Guam can persist for the next few days. ATM, vorticity is increasing in that area.

[mrbagyo]

00z GFS now develops the disturbance southeast of Guam. moves NW then recurves towards just east of Japan.
CMC still wants a Central Luzon tracker then moves it to Hainan
Haven't seen the Euro yet.

The disturbance near Guam is now tagged as 98W

[euro6208]

EURO still robust on the South China Sea system...994mb through Vietnam.

And...

Has another possible typhoon entering the Philippine Sea...

GFS now on board shows a deepening typhoon headed towards Vietnam.

[euro6208]

1 TD

2 Invests with another on the way for system over the Philippines...

[euro6208]

Invest 91W

South China Sea storm.

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS hinting of another TC. Latest runs has a 975 mb typhoon northwest of Guam while the latter has a weak LPA south of Guam.

Quite the difference...

[1900hurricane]

Looking ahead, there are a couple of things that could work in the WPac's favor for storm development the next few weeks. First, guidance has backed way off on the upward pulse of Madden-Julian in the Western Hemisphere, which should help limit subsidence over the basin some. Second, La Nina is looking more and more like a no-show. Some La-Nina type conditions have undoubtably been felt across the basin so far this season, but if forcing stalls out, we could swing back to more typical WPac conditions pretty quickly. In fact, we may already be beginning. 16W/likely soon-to-be Meranti is the first non-gyre system to develop in the open tropical WPac since Nepartak in early July, and unsurprisingly, it is expected to become rather strong. Guidance is also hinting as more typical WPac storms coming up, such as possibly from 90W. Honestly, it would not surprise me if things ramped up going into Super Typhoon Season.

[euro6208]

EURO drops the typhoon and GFS's 18z run drops the deepening TS east of Guam...

06Z GFS now has a 984 mb typhoon southeast of Taiwan.

[euro6208]

Damn if that forecast of another Super Nino holds for next year, I see a solid ending to 2016 and a fast start to 2017.

The WPAC will be a Hurricane/Typhoon hunter's dream...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looking ahead, there are a couple of things that could work in the WPac's favor for storm development the next few weeks. First, guidance has backed way off on the upward pulse of Madden-Julian in the Western Hemisphere, which should help limit subsidence over the basin some. Second, La Nina is looking more and more like a no-show. Some La-Nina type conditions have undoubtably been felt across the basin so far this season, but if forcing stalls out, we could swing back to more typical WPac conditions pretty quickly. In fact, we may already be beginning. 16W/likely soon-to-be Meranti is the first non-gyre system to develop in the open tropical WPac since Nepartak in early July, and unsurprisingly, it is expected to become rather strong. Guidance is also hinting as more typical WPac storms coming up, such as possibly from 90W. Honestly, it would not surprise me if things ramped up going into Super Typhoon Season.

Always appreciate your analysis Ryan! Interesting times ahead.

[mrbagyo]

More on the distant horizon...
There is some bunch of flaring convection located just southwest of Hawaii.
Let's see if it can survive and enter the WPAC...looks pretty good on IR
But mushy on ASCAT : Ascending & Descending

[euro6208]

The streak is a consecutive 4th year with Meranti reaching the 155 knots club and 13th STY to do so since 2000. Amazing.

Super Typhoon Meranti...

1952258N18178 1952091718 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952258N18178 1952091800 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952296N06152 1952102600 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952296N06152 1952102606 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952363N07170 1952123112 160.0 28W:HESTER
1952363N07170 1952123118 160.0 28W:HESTER
1952363N07170 1953010100 160.0 28W:HESTER
1953219N08155 1953081118 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081200 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081206 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081212 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081218 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081300 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081306 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081312 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081318 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081400 160.0 08W:NINA
1955346N06142 1955121512 180.0 22W:RUTH
1955346N06142 1955121518 165.0 22W:RUTH
1956207N13145 1956073000 155.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073006 160.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073012 155.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073018 155.0 06W:WANDA
1957311N06171 1957111606 160.0 20W:LOLA
1957311N06171 1957111612 160.0 20W:LOLA
1958143N06158 1958052818 155.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958143N06158 1958052900 160.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958240N08146 1958090112 160.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090118 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090200 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090206 160.0 13W:GRACE
1958263N13148 1958092406 160.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092412 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092418 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092500 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092506 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092512 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092518 160.0 15W:IDA
1959236N12139 1959082818 155.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082900 165.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082906 170.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082912 160.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959254N14148 1959091500 160.0 SARAH
1959254N14148 1959091506 165.0 SARAH
1959263N11160 1959092306 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092312 165.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092318 165.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092400 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092406 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092412 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092418 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092500 155.0 VERA
1961248N18155 1961091112 155.0 PAMELA
1961250N07173 1961091000 160.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091006 165.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091012 175.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091018 175.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091100 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091106 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091112 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091118 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091200 185.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091206 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091212 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091218 170.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091300 170.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091306 160.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091312 160.0 NANCY
1961276N22152 1961100618 160.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100700 175.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100706 180.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100712 170.0 VIOLET
1962224N11151 1962081618 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962224N11151 1962081700 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962311N06154 1962110900 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110906 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110912 155.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110918 155.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962111300 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962111306 160.0 KAREN
1964247N09159 1964090618 155.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090700 165.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090706 170.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090712 165.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090718 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090800 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090806 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090812 160.0 SALLY
1964319N08141 1964111800 155.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111806 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111812 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111818 160.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964344N06153 1964121200 155.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121206 160.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121212 165.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121218 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121300 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121306 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121312 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121318 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121400 170.0 OPAL
1965161N09151 1965061706 160.0 DINAH
1966171N09151 1966062600 170.0 KIT
1966171N09151 1966062606 170.0 KIT
1966171N09151 1966062612 170.0 KIT
1967241N15170 1967090312 155.0 OPAL
1967283N11150 1967101418 160.0 CARLA
1967283N11150 1967101500 160.0 CARLA
1967283N11150 1967101506 155.0 CARLA
1971311N06141 1971111118 155.0 IRMA
1971311N06141 1971111200 155.0 IRMA
1973274N10137 1973100600 160.0 NORA
1975319N08146 1975111912 160.0 JUNE
1979275N05159 1979101200 160.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101206 165.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101212 165.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101218 155.0 TIP
1984294N04163 1984102612 155.0 VANESSA

Recon ends in 1987

1992277N16140 1992101318 155.0 YVETTE
1992277N16140 1992101400 155.0 YVETTE
1992318N06182 1992112018 155.0 GAY
1992318N06182 1992112100 160.0 GAY
1992318N06182 1992112106 155.0 GAY
1995293N05177 1995110100 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110106 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110112 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110118 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110200 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110206 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110212 155.0 ANGELA
1997283N07177 1997101712 155.0 IVAN
1997283N07177 1997101718 160.0 IVAN
1997284N04179 1997101706 160.0 JOAN
1997284N04179 1997101712 160.0 JOAN
1997299N07169 1997110112 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997299N07169 1997110218 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997333N06194 1997121718 155.0 PAKA:PAKA
1997333N06194 1997121800 160.0 PAKA:PAKA
1998281N11151 1998101312 155.0 ZEB
1998281N11151 1998101318 155.0 ZEB
1998281N11151 1998101400 155.0 ZEB
2000125N06136 2000050918 155.0 DAMRCY:DAMREY
2001347N04162 2001122300 155.0 FAXAI
2004164N06139 2004061606 155.0 DIANMU
2004164N06139 2004061612 155.0 DIANMU
2004164N06139 2004061618 155.0 DIANMU
2004230N09172 2004082300 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082306 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082312 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082318 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082400 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082418 155.0 CHABA
2009325N06148 2009112512 155.0 NIDA
2009325N06148 2009112518 155.0 NIDA
2010285N13145 2010101712 160.0 MEGI (Should be 175 knots based on recon. Flight level winds supported surface winds of 200 mph sustained)
2010285N13145 2010101718 155.0 MEGI
2012 Sanba 155.0
2013 Haiyan 170.0 (8.0 dvorak, strongest storm in the world)
2014 Vongfong 155.0
2014 Nuri 155.0
2014 Hagupit 155.0
2015 Soudelor 155.0

[1900hurricane]

This is the 5th year in a row.

[euro6208]

This is the 5th year in a row.

Oops...

[euro6208]

Time has changed. GFS also drops the typhoon.

The models are seeing a dead period after our current storms.

However, GFS sees one or maybe two storms on both sides of the Marianas. Time will tell...

EURO drops the typhoon and GFS's 18z run drops the deepening TS east of Guam...

06Z GFS now has a 984 mb typhoon southeast of Taiwan.

[1900hurricane]

I would not be too surprised to see the disturbance east of the Marianas eventually develop when it moves into the Guam area again. Guidance was a little slow to pick up on both Meranti and Malakas, so something similar may end up happening here as well. It should at least become invest-worthy in a day or two.

[euro6208]

I would not be too surprised to see the disturbance east of the Marianas eventually develop when it moves into the Guam area again. Guidance was a little slow to pick up on both Meranti and Malakas, so something similar may end up happening here as well. It should at least become invest-worthy in a day or two.

Yeah now Invest 93W.

INVEST 93W

[1900hurricane]

The current WPac is one of the most fun I've ever tracked.

[euro6208]

The current WPac is one of the most fun I've ever tracked.

Since when?