Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[NCSTORMMAN]

Still a little bit of hope?

@MJVentrice: Tropical Cyclogenesis 15 day probabilities for the 0Z GEFS and ECMWF EPS MOS products. http://t.co/ydMox1fMzJ

I feel like these images should have the Jim Carrey meme saying "So, you are saying there is a chance". Anything . something is very low. Unless I am reading it wrong and if so I am an idiot.

On another note the convection in the Gulf of Mexico looks to be dying and unless something new pops up this thread is going to die.

[Hammy]

NAM is finally biting, showing a tropical depression or storm forming by Saturday, and I will point out it was the best performing so far this season as far as the shorter term forecasts go. The system seems to form a piece of energy that shoots south and merges with the convection currently in the Gulf.

[NCSTORMMAN]

NAM is finally biting, showing a tropical depression or storm forming by Saturday, and I will point out it was the best performing so far this season as far as the shorter term forecasts go. The system seems to form a piece of energy that shoots south and merges with the convection currently in the Gulf.

Looks like all models showing energy in the Gulf of Mexico in some sort of way. Is the energy the NAM sees the energy around Carolina and Georgia right now? It is moving south but IDK if that is due to shear or not.

[NCSTORMMAN]

NAM is finally biting, showing a tropical depression or storm forming by Saturday, and I will point out it was the best performing so far this season as far as the shorter term forecasts go. The system seems to form a piece of energy that shoots south and merges with the convection currently in the Gulf.

The Nam i think is picking up on that complex low system @about 26.32N thats out there.

The low that was over Florida is coming back into the Gulf of Mexico. At least something spinning over Florida is headed toward the Gulf of Mexico. Strange weather set up. Strangest I have ever seen personally.

[northjaxpro]

There are 2 swirls I can pick out on visible satellite. The first and larger swirl is about 200 miles SE of Wilmington NC.
which is a 1013 mb Frontal Low depicted on NHC surface analysis at 21Z


Another Low level swirl is about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, FL, which is a 1012 mb Low analyzed by NHC at 21Z

On visible satellite imagery, you can clearly see how the northeasterly shear has blown convection off to the south and southwest of each swirl , especially the larger low level swirl southeast of Wilmington, NC.

The shear just is not letting up and development just is not going to happen in the short term. However, I would still keep an eye on the lagging vorticity in the GOM as mentioned earlier some models possibly develop a system over the weekend down there, provided if conditions become at least marginally conducive for development.

[ronjon]

Both the NAM and GFS develop low pressure off the FL panhandle and meander it in the GOM for several days this weekend into early next week. Something to watch.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The intellicast future model is showing something in the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow evening that looks like a storm to me. Anyone else getting that or is my computer messing up. I am looking at future satellite image.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting spin to it just ESE of Jacksonville, FL heading SW.(Via RadarScope)

[stormlover2013]

I've been saying all week watch out with high pressure moving from texans and something spinning up towards la, this isn't a official forecast just something I've been seeing with the patten and moisture staying in gulf

[Hammy]

At this point it would be nice if at least a depression would form and slowly work northward, it's been incredibly hot and dry in northern Georgia lately and we could use some rain to cool things off a bit.

edit: this remains to be shown by the CMC (though the only remaining holdout in showing any Gulf development in the short term) sending a 55kt storm into Florida by Sunday.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The Gulf of Mexico is officially dead in my opinion.

[TheStormExpert]

I second that. Conditioning are just too hostile here and even off the SE U.S. Coast for any tropical development to occur. I guess we will have to wait awhile for Danny.

[Sanibel]

The center formed east of Florida.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Shear is dropping in the Gulf of Mexico and something is spinning up there. Vorticity is up and chances for formation are up in the Gulf of Mexico. Just a heads up.

[Nimbus]

That new ULL north of Hispaniola may amplify the high over the gulf.
Strong shear from the north, so that "energy" off JAX will probably not develop unless it tracks with the shear and crosses the peninsula into the gulf.

No shortwave to drag that area caught under the ridge northeast.

[northjaxpro]

The Low Pressure east of Jax would develop if not for the shear. If and when the shear decides to decrease, either the Low east of Jax or the lagging vorticity in the NE GOM may finally be able to develop late this week.

[NDG]

I don't see wind shear letting up until early next week.

[NCSTORMMAN]

:uarrow: I don't see wind shear letting up until early next week.

Shear is letting up in the Gulf of Mexico though correct?

[NDG]

:uarrow: I don't see wind shear letting up until early next week.

Shear is letting up in the Gulf of Mexico though correct?

Most of the GOM, except extreme NW coastal areas, has 20-35 knot northerly and easterly windshear.

[NCSTORMMAN]

:uarrow: I don't see wind shear letting up until early next week.

Shear is letting up in the Gulf of Mexico though correct?

Most of the GOM, except extreme NW coastal areas, has 20-35 knot northerly and easterly windshear.

Still not as high as the last few days correct? Also, a lot less than the Atlantic side of Florida right now.