Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[wxman57]

Definite LLC, storms building closer to the center. This system has a far greater chance of being a TD/TS than 94L or now 95L, yet the NHC dropped it from mention in the outlook for possible development.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Clear anticyclonic outflow band aloft on the East side...

[Stormavoider]

Clear anticyclonic outflow band aloft on the East side...

Or is it shear from the NNE?

[wxman57]

The two negatives are some pretty dry air to its north at the surface moving south through North Carolina and its proximity to the coast by tomorrow. Could draw in the dry air and knock out all convection.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Clear anticyclonic outflow band aloft on the East side...

Or is it shear from the NNE?

Nope, watch the movie linked, it is outflow.

What would be shear, if aimed right at the center, can be an outflow jet if aimed at the correct angle at the perimeter.

[Thunder44]

Definite LLC, storms building closer to the center. This system has a far greater chance of being a TD/TS than 94L or now 95L, yet the NHC dropped it from mention in the outlook for possible development.

They may send recon out there on Saturday:


. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES ON CARIBBEAN SYSTEM AT 19/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE MISSION INTO W ATLANTIC SYSTEM AT 32.5N
78.0W FOR 19/1800Z.

[chadtm80]

Definite LLC, storms building closer to the center. This system has a far greater chance of being a TD/TS than 94L or now 95L, yet the NHC dropped it from mention in the outlook for possible development.

I agree Chris.. Don't understand why its not an Invest. I would say because of its proximity to land... But then you have 95L.. So I dunno.. I would guess it would at least get a mention in the next outlook though

[Ed Mahmoud]

With the dry air WxMan57 noted inland , this might look like some of the barely storms that sometimes affect Texas. Low clouds on the West side, all the storms East of the center.

[OuterBanker]

You can take this with a grain of salt, but JB thinks this will develop (not as bad as Alex) and hug the coast looking for the warmth. Not inland into the dry air. We shall see. Funny how TAFB and TPC wrote it off though. This low seems to have better llc than 94l ever did.

[HURAKAN]

[O Town]

[RL3AO]

Thats a pretty obvious circulation.

[mutley]

I'm surprised it hasn't done more since moving offshore.

[x-y-no]

You can take this with a grain of salt, but JB thinks this will develop (not as bad as Alex) and hug the coast looking for the warmth. Not inland into the dry air. We shall see. Funny how TAFB and TPC wrote it off though. This low seems to have better llc than 94l ever did.

This is the classic homebrew scenario he loves so much. It certainly could happen - depends of how hard it's hit with dry air advection off the Carolinas.

[HURAKAN]

986
ABNT20 KNHC 171758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Ed Mahmoud]

You can take this with a grain of salt, but JB thinks this will develop (not as bad as Alex) and hug the coast looking for the warmth. Not inland into the dry air. We shall see. Funny how TAFB and TPC wrote it off though. This low seems to have better llc than 94l ever did.

This is the classic homebrew scenario he loves so much. It certainly could happen - depends of how hard it's hit with dry air advection off the Carolinas.

Could be the Texas style half a storm, partially exposed center on West side with most of the convection on the East side...

[RL3AO]

Up to orange now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif

[Stormtrack03]

What is the development potential of this storm for the next 2-3 days? Will watches have to be issued if it develops into a TD, wind potential?

I know its a lot of questions but with the low pressure so close to my coast i have to start taking precautions just in case and to be prepared.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Up to orange now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif

C'mon baby. How about a resources permitting tasking of a plane for late this afternoon, or maybe tomorrow morning...

[Ed Mahmoud]

What is the development potential of this storm for the next 2-3 days? Will watches have to be issued if it develops into a TD, wind potential?

I know its a lot of questions but with the low pressure so close to my coast i have to start taking precautions just in case and to be prepared.

I hope they make it 96L. Then you'll have specific model guidance to better help determine how strong it could get.