T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[theworld]

I the center near the blob or SW of the blob?

SW.

[gatorcane]

yeah I think it will be moved SW of the the current NHC center and tracks will shift left accordingly......lets not be so certain it is a fish just yet.

[CrazyC83]

If this becomes a wave, what are the chances of redevelopment?

[Sanibel]

Another 2006 naked spiral developing yet again. As with Ernesto, the key to this is the sheared and displaced red-top convection hanging with the system to its NE. As long as it retains this energy it will have a chance at powering that broad LLC back up.

The track of this thing is clearly west and towards a north pass of the islands. There appears to be large recurve weakness spots in the synoptic uprange, but who knows.

The disturbance behind it is yet another child of 2006 and shows weak convection. It is so close that if it strengthens it will drive TD6 more west.

98L was absorbed.

[gatorcane]

Also expect a more Westward push with each model run. I think that High in Canada is going to be stronger and move more South than anticipated.

Agreed still think a Florida threat is not out of the question....

[SouthFloridawx]

How is 06L looking this morning on satelite?

Healthy and strong:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Thank you I did not have the link for that site. The circulation is looking quite well, however the lack of convection is very likely due to the Trough to it's north. The LLC looks to be moving wnw and faster than last night. Since there is not much convection associated with the circulation a more westerly course for the next couple of days due to the low level flow.

[RevDodd]

Of course, ol' Florence could be the Edouard of 2006...

He grew into a big, hungry impressive creature that seems intent on smacking somebody...almost anybody. Then heturned away.

For those with short memories.... http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The only downside to that is the smaller storm that built in Edouard's wake...Fran.

[gatorcane]

How is 06L looking this morning on satelite?

Healthy and strong:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Thank you I did not have the link for that site. The circulation is looking quite well, however the lack of convection is very likely due to the Trough to it's north. The LLC looks to be moving wnw and faster than last night. Since there is not much convection associated with the circulation a more westerly course for the next couple of days due to the low level flow.

Yep and the tracks *should* shift left with each run as it is just a dry swirl.....

[jusforsean]

Could someone pls post a working model link for me, for a few days now mine says i am unauthorized to access it????

[gatorcane]

lets all not forget TD #10......AKA Katrina

"it will turn...it will turn...it will turn"

nope - right into Florida and CAT 5 in the GOM.

[Sanibel]

I don't understand why this is so sheared? There's not that much shear around it if you look at the surrounding area. It must be under subsidence or in a very dry air pocket.

NHC track has it pulling up from here, but I'm not seeing that in its motion.

[RevDodd]

Could someone pls post a working model link for me, for a few days now mine says i am unauthorized to access it????

You've got the same one I use...someone changed the lock over the holidays....

[storms in NC]

If you look a Floyds track where it started you can see that TD6 is almost in the same place. Give a little to the north I think of Floyd.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[sma10]

lets all not forget TD #10......AKA Katrina

"it will turn...it will turn...it will turn"

nope - right into Florida and CAT 5 in the GOM.

Where do you get your information from?

The official forecast always brought Katrina into Florida and then the Gulf. Check your sources.

[curtadams]

The low-level circ is to the S/SSW of the big blob but east of the smaller blob to the SW. The whole complex is contracting and gives the impression that the various convection centers are being drawn into the overall center (which is usual). http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rgb.html Well left of the NHC points.

[gatorcane]

lets all not forget TD #10......AKA Katrina

"it will turn...it will turn...it will turn"

nope - right into Florida and CAT 5 in the GOM.

Where do you get your information from?

The official forecast always brought Katrina into Florida and then the Gulf. Check your sources.

Remember when TD10 was in the Atlantic? That is what I am talking about. When it was well out in the central Atlantic.....

[Windsurfer_NYC]

262
WTNT21 KNHC 051439
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 47.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

[Brent]

FLORENCE IS HERE AT 11AM!!!!!

[gatorcane]

here we go!!!

[RevDodd]

If you look a Floyd's track where it started you can see that TD6 is almost in the same place.

Dang if it isn't! If Floyd had been a little slower or the trough a little quicker, we'd have been spared a mess of misery.

So I reckon we won't know about Florience (is it Florence yet?) until we know how things set up late this week.