Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

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cycloneye
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#281 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:09 pm

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051204 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051204 0000 051204 1200 051205 0000 051205 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.3N 42.3W 34.7N 39.1W 35.5N 36.1W 36.3N 33.9W
BAMM 34.3N 42.3W 34.2N 39.9W 34.2N 37.3W 33.9N 35.4W
A98E 34.3N 42.3W 34.3N 39.7W 35.1N 37.0W 35.2N 34.8W
LBAR 34.3N 42.3W 34.8N 39.4W 35.1N 36.7W 35.1N 34.1W
SHIP 65KTS 59KTS 52KTS 44KTS
DSHP 65KTS 59KTS 52KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051206 0000 051207 0000 051208 0000 051209 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.6N 32.3W 33.6N 32.8W 30.2N 37.9W 24.1N 43.2W
BAMM 33.1N 34.3W 30.2N 36.9W 27.1N 43.5W 23.7N 50.0W
A98E 34.8N 33.4W 32.9N 31.9W 32.0N 32.9W 27.1N 35.8W
LBAR 34.4N 31.5W 33.3N 27.1W 30.9N 25.6W 29.3N 27.3W
SHIP 38KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.3N LONCUR = 42.3W DIRCUR = 95DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 34.5N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 89DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 47.1W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM

00:00z Models decrease the wind to 65kts.
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#282 Postby WindRunner » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:18 pm

Just because the convection got eaten away at. I think they should have at least held it steady, but that's their decision. Then again, they don't necessarily follow the models for the next advisory.
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#283 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:26 pm

BECOMING A LITTLE BIT LESS ORGANIZED!

HOURS AGO:

Image

NOW:

Image

ALSO MOVING MORE SE-WARD!
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#284 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:28 pm

There does not seem to be ANY decrease in organization at all. Really not sure why the winds are being reduced
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#285 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:31 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:There does not seem to be ANY decrease in organization at all. Really not sure why the winds are being reduced


Derek maybe they are following the SSD sat estimate of 4.0/4.5.
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#286 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:36 pm

Theres more deeper convection developing around the center

Image
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#287 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:41 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:Theres more deeper convection developing around the center


Right, so may be it could get stronger again.
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#288 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:45 pm

is the eye starting to get smaller like it would on a strengthing Hurricane?
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#289 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:51 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:is the eye starting to get smaller like it would on a strengthing Hurricane?


Not really, it's just a little smaller than yesterday and earlier today.
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#290 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:53 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:There does not seem to be ANY decrease in organization at all. Really not sure why the winds are being reduced


They updated the older image, the top one. But it showed the system less organized on its SE side. It could have been temporary but the NHC is expecting weakening at any time.
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#291 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 03, 2005 8:57 pm

Image
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#292 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:01 pm

1:45Z image is out and theres now the deeper convection all the way around the eye

Image
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#293 Postby fuzzyblow » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:23 pm

It's good anough to export on March or somewhere,,, I'm very proud of this storm. :lol:
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#294 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:25 pm

they're probably going with weakening, because thats what they forecast
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#295 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:28 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:they're probably going with weakening, because thats what they forecast


well they have been forcasting weakening for the past few days! lol but instead its been staying or strengthing instead of weakening! lol
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#296 Postby fuzzyblow » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:34 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:they're probably going with weakening, because thats what they forecast

ys but everybody want Epsilon survive = influence, Epsilon is on influence. It's touching me :cry:
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#297 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:59 pm

This storm looks like it wants that second chance of life by looping around into warmer waters. But can it survive before it get down there?? I say yes..Its in 50degree water and its supposedd to go into warmer.
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#298 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:02 pm

At some point that cold front moving off the East Coast is going to have to catch up with Epsilon. Shear and outflow patterns might be lax enough to allow a Cat1 Epsilon, but I highly doubt we'll ever get stronger than this.
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#299 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:08 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:This storm looks like it wants that second chance of life by looping around into warmer waters. But can it survive before it get down there?? I say yes..Its in 50degree water and its supposedd to go into warmer.
where are these 50* waters at??? Epsilon is in 70* waters as we speak, errr... type...
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#300 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:11 pm

EPSILON MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT IN ANY CASE
IT LIKELY WILL BE ONE ON SUNDAY... SINCE IT IS HEADED FOR EVEN
COOLER WATERS WHILE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE
NOT FAR BEHIND. THE STEADY WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE
MORE RAPID THAT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.


I don't get what they are trying to say. In the first sentence says that Epsilon may or may not be a hurricane by now but it will surely be one by Sunday?!?!?!?!? Then, they finish the sentence saying it's entering colder water temps and drier air. The second sentence indicates weakening.

What I don't get is the wording of the first part of the first sentence.

I'm going crazy or Forecaster Knabb is too tired of this season?
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