East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

[ConvergenceZone]

still looking really good!! I think that by tomorrow at this time, the TWO will mention it. Perhaps it's like ya said in that they are waiting to make sure that the convection doesn't go "poof" overnight. So far it hasn't. I think in 24 hours we will know for sure, although it still may be 2 days away from a becomming a depression

[truballer#1]

heres a good site showing loops and maps of the wave and the rest of the atlantic

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... /imgs.html

[cycloneye]

Maybe a little bit of warming of clouds but not much.The whole structure has mantained very good and it is evident some type of circulation at Mid Levels.But the key is if convection persists for another 24 hours,also if a well defined surface circulation forms and in what latitud forms because where it forms will be important in terms of the system being more of a threat to the lesser antilles depending in which latitud the low forms or it will go out to sea.If it hangs on tonight as it is now we can see the invest up by tommorow afternoon.

[JTD]

Luis, oh no about the warming of the cloud tops!!

[weatherwindow]

well put, luis........the TWD is still hanging on to an incipient center at 18deg n. if that verifies as the actual center of the development, it would certainly lessen the threat to PR and the northern islands. checking unisys, i found no US landfalls with an initial genesis this far north, ...found nothing impacting PR/northern islands....perhaps i missed something, it was a quick overview.....rich

[superfly]

well put, luis........the TWD is still hanging on to an incipient center at 18deg n. if that verifies as the actual center of the development, it would certainly lessen the threat to PR and the northern islands. checking unisys, i found no US landfalls with an initial genesis this far north, ...found nothing impacting PR/northern islands....perhaps i missed something, it was a quick overview.....rich

I don't see anything resembling a center at 18N. The furthest north I can see a possible center is around 15N but it's looking more in the 12-13N range to my eyes.

[WeatherEmperor]

well put, luis........the TWD is still hanging on to an incipient center at 18deg n. if that verifies as the actual center of the development, it would certainly lessen the threat to PR and the northern islands. checking unisys, i found no US landfalls with an initial genesis this far north, ...found nothing impacting PR/northern islands....perhaps i missed something, it was a quick overview.....rich

I don't see anything resembling a center at 18N. The furthest north I can see a possible center is around 15N but it's looking more in the 12-13N range to my eyes.

You are right. I see it in the 12-13N range as well.

<RICKY>

[nequad]

It was obvious earlier today by looking at visible imagery that there was a surface low north of the deep convection. Just as the GFS initialized.

Look for a new low center to form near the deeper convection the next 24 hours as the entire wave axis pulls further west.

[cycloneye]

FAR E ATLC WAVE ALONG 19W/20W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17.5N AND A 1009 MB LOW IS
ALSO ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THE NORTHERN LOW IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOME DRY AIR N OF 17N E OF 28W SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE. THIS IS NOT THE CASE FOR
THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH IS FORMING SOME CURVED BANDS IN THE ITCZ
WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR THE
SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET. COMPUTER
MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-29W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN DAKAR AND 21W.

This is a complete picture about the system from forcaster Blake as he wrote the 8 PM discussion.

[WeatherEmperor]

FAR E ATLC WAVE ALONG 19W/20W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17.5N AND A 1009 MB LOW IS
ALSO ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THE NORTHERN LOW IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOME DRY AIR N OF 17N E OF 28W SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE. THIS IS NOT THE CASE FOR
THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH IS FORMING SOME CURVED BANDS IN THE ITCZ
WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR THE
SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET. COMPUTER
MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-29W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN DAKAR AND 21W.

This is a complete picture about the system from forcaster Blake as he wrote the 8 PM discussion.

Great. That was a very good discussion and puts things into much better perspective.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

very good discussion....banding features look great....i dont think im going to far on a limb by saying this will develop...if it doesnt, blame blake lol

[WeatherEmperor]

very good discussion....banding features look great....i dont think im going to far on a limb by saying this will develop...if it doesnt, blame blake lol

If an invest were to be issued tonight, at what time would it be completed by?

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

very good discussion....banding features look great....i dont think im going to far on a limb by saying this will develop...if it doesnt, blame blake lol

If an invest were to be issued tonight, at what time would it be completed by?

<RICKY>

oh gosh, i think luis would be able to answer that question...hes always on top of those invests

[Praxus]

This part of the latest discussion was also interesting:

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS NEAR AND
MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 63W-68W. HOWEVER
PUERTO RICO RADAR IS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 20.5N67W
WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AT LOWER-LEVELS CYCLONICALLY TURNING INTO THE CENTER. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST.

[WeatherEmperor]

This part of the latest discussion was also interesting:

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS NEAR AND
MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 63W-68W. HOWEVER
PUERTO RICO RADAR IS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 20.5N67W
WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AT LOWER-LEVELS CYCLONICALLY TURNING INTO THE CENTER. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST.

*drum roll* and so the discussion about former TD10 continues.... Stay tuned.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

This part of the latest discussion was also interesting:

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS NEAR AND
MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 63W-68W. HOWEVER
PUERTO RICO RADAR IS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 20.5N67W
WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AT LOWER-LEVELS CYCLONICALLY TURNING INTO THE CENTER. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST.

*drum roll* and so the discussion about former TD10 continues.... Stay tuned.

<RICKY>

you would think they would say something about it being former td10 or associated with td10

[nequad]

I don't see the models from TPC/NHC being run on this system until tomorrow sometime. Regardless...with the large high to the north it seems a W or WNW motion should ensue the next 3-4 days.

Model guidance is hinting at a weakness in the ridge toward the end of the period...which may allow for a turn more to the NW. We'll see.

[vacanechaser]

I knew we would get a better discussion about what is happening out there when Blake got in there.. great discussion..

pretty interesting about former td 10 too...

Like I said earlier, here we go, get those tracking charts ready!!

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[WindRunner]

Funny thing is that that part of the TWD isn't about former TD10.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SE USA CONTROLS THE WEATHER W OF
75W N OF 25.. GENERALLY DRIER THAN AVERAGE. HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N W OF 70W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH N OF THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF TD 10 ARE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR TURKS/CAICOS ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BUT ARE
WEAKENING WITH TIME. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
THE LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS DISTURBED AREA OF WEATHER HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
OVER IT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS. A FEW OF THE COMPUTER MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOPMENT THIS AREA.. BRINGING IT TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION HAS TO BE CONSIDERED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN THOUGH. FARTHER N.. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 30N56W
TO 24N68W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE BENEATH THE TROUGH AXIS THOUGH
THEY ARE QUITE ISOLATED. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.. A MID/UPPER LOW
IS NEAR 28N45W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NNW WITH TROUGH AXIS SSW TO
20N51W. THE GFS SUGGEST THE FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
WITH THE TROUGH RETREATING FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES S OF THE LOW N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W AND E OF
THE LOW N OF 15N W OF 30W.

[Praxus]

*drum roll* Nothing like a smartass who turns out to be wrong.... Stay tuned.