Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[NCSTORMMAN]

Does anyone else see the spin that the convection is doing in the Gulf of Mexico and it seems like shear is not nearly as bad as yesterday. Yesterday the clouds were being blown right off any spin.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the system in the GOM and the frontal boundary in the Atlantic are separating.

[northjaxpro]

panana, I believe that as well. It indeed looks ad if the entity in the NE GOM is detaching itself.

[northjaxpro]

panana, I believe that as well. It indeed looks as if the entity in the NE GOM is detaching itself.

[NCSTORMMAN]

:uarrow: panana, I believe that as well. It indeed looks ad if the entity in the NE GOM is detaching itself.

Would that push something to develop in the Gulf of Mexico or help end it? Worried about the rain in Florida for the people who live there.

[Sanibel]

Does anyone else see the spin that the convection is doing in the Gulf of Mexico and it seems like shear is not nearly as bad as yesterday. Yesterday the clouds were being blown right off any spin.

I don't think they are fussing with it because they think it will weaken and die.



"Evacuation" is "venting", which is when a weather pattern in the upper level pulls air away from the system. A cyclone draws air inward at the surface and pushes it outward at the upper level. When air is vented from a system it is like pulling the string on a top which makes it spin. Turbocharging.

[northjaxpro]

The Low has been attached to a surface trough axis for several days. By it becoming detached, thr system can have a better opportunity to develop, provided if the shear decreases. Also the system would be fully tropical in nature if it is detached from the trough axis./boundary

[tolakram]

The Hi Rez euro, 0Z, showed the main vorticity drifting NE over Florida and exiting into the Atlantic. IMO that's what is happening and there's nothing left below that convection in the Gulf.

You can see the progression if you speed up this live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-81&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18&mapcolor=gray

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

I should add.

At 144 hours the Euro shows another area of vorticity forming over NE Florida and moving up the coast, mostly inland. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z shows today.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, there is a swirl off of my area off the coast of Jax. There is a possibility tolakram that you may be onto something in that the area off the NE FL coast may be becoming the dominant feature.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The Hi Rez euro, 0Z, showed the main vorticity drifting NE over Florida and exiting into the Atlantic. IMO that's what is happening and there's nothing left below that convection in the Gulf.

You can see the progression if you speed up this live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-81&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18&mapcolor=gray

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks for the input and I seen that.

[NDG]

I was about to say earlier today that the area south of Carolinas is the area to now watch but even that vorticity the convection has been blown off by the northerly shear.
The convection moving westward at the NE GOM is nothing more than the mid level energy that was blown off from the surface low yesterday, which is now nothing more than a naked elongated broad low over NE FLA.
The only way something might organize in this area is if the Heat Ridge moves westward and the northerly shear eases up a bit, if it happens and the surface trough is still around something might indeed get organized in a few days, but I am not holding my breath.

[NDG]

another night of heavy rain here and waterlogged western Pasco county has been dumped on this morning. this is that warm atmosphere, tropical rain... we've all seen it, the soaking torrents with small to very small raindrops and either no or less lightning than you would otherwise expect with such heavy intensities. at this point I wish a system would form and do something just to end this water torture. this weekend I filmed catfish swimming down the sidewalk. ridiculous.

Yes, I was about to say it is very tropical out there, as the broad low has tracked to my north my rains today are heavier than what they appear on radar with no thunder at all and very warm & muggy conditions, no doubt that the system that was trying to organize yesterday in the NE GOM was 100% tropical in nature.

[Stormcenter]

I would keep an eye of the remaining moisture left in the GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[Nimbus]

another night of heavy rain here and waterlogged western Pasco county has been dumped on this morning. this is that warm atmosphere, tropical rain... we've all seen it, the soaking torrents with small to very small raindrops and either no or less lightning than you would otherwise expect with such heavy intensities. at this point I wish a system would form and do something just to end this water torture. this weekend I filmed catfish swimming down the sidewalk. ridiculous.

Yes, I was about to say it is very tropical out there, as the broad low has tracked to my north my rains today are heavier than what they appear on radar with no thunder at all and very warm & muggy conditions, no doubt that the system that was trying to organize yesterday in the NE GOM was 100% tropical in nature.

Pasco county got over 12 inches of rain and the Anclote river rose from 9 feet to over 24 feet.
Very similar to the flooding from Debby. Some of the homeowners insurance companies have been offering deductibles for accepting exclusions from damage by tropical storm systems.

despite all the scud going round in circles there was an upper level circulation due to a trough draped across the state.
The trough appears to be finally closing off and lifting out this afternoon.
The remnant energy is drifting west, if the convection persists overnight it probably won't dissipate very quickly.

[Dean4Storms]

This buoy has shown no real signs of a circulation and pressures were even higher today than yesterday. Even the sea heights are lame.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

[NDG]

another night of heavy rain here and waterlogged western Pasco county has been dumped on this morning. this is that warm atmosphere, tropical rain... we've all seen it, the soaking torrents with small to very small raindrops and either no or less lightning than you would otherwise expect with such heavy intensities. at this point I wish a system would form and do something just to end this water torture. this weekend I filmed catfish swimming down the sidewalk. ridiculous.

Yes, I was about to say it is very tropical out there, as the broad low has tracked to my north my rains today are heavier than what they appear on radar with no thunder at all and very warm & muggy conditions, no doubt that the system that was trying to organize yesterday in the NE GOM was 100% tropical in nature.

Pasco county got over 12 inches of rain and the Anclote river rose from 9 feet to over 24 feet.
Very similar to the flooding from Debby. Some of the homeowners insurance companies have been offering deductibles for accepting exclusions from damage by tropical storm systems.

despite all the scud going round in circles there was an upper level circulation due to a trough draped across the state.
The trough appears to be finally closing off and lifting out this afternoon.
The remnant energy is drifting west, if the convection persists overnight it probably won't dissipate very quickly.

I do not think this was ever associated with an upper level circulation, no upper level trough axis over FL, the trough we have been talking about was an old surface cold front which became nothing more than a surface trough over time and is still present as noticed on surface reports.

[Nimbus]

There was too much high cirrus cloud motion to be purely tropical, but this is changing in the gulf now.
The new tail end of the front appears to be trapped under the ridging over on the eastern side of Florida as well.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

[NCSTORMMAN]

There was too much high cirrus cloud motion to be purely tropical, but this is changing in the gulf now.
The new tail end of the front appears to be trapped under the ridging over on the eastern side of Florida as well.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Meaning what exactly?

[TheStormExpert]

Still a little bit of hope?

@MJVentrice: Tropical Cyclogenesis 15 day probabilities for the 0Z GEFS and ECMWF EPS MOS products. http://t.co/ydMox1fMzJ