Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[Aric Dunn]

They included the area in the BOC that i mentioned earlier.. in the 8pm TWO

[lrak]

It looks as if the BOC spin is just about over water, and the futher it drifts west the better. Is the L off the TX coast going to get sucked into this L in the BOC? This thing could become HUGE.

[Aric Dunn]

It looks as if the BOC spin is just about over water, and the futher it drifts west the better. Is the L off the TX coast going to get sucked into this L in the BOC? This thing could become HUGE.

well were ever any decent convection fires will help determine where something may consolidate..

[wxman57]

Nothing very impressive yet. Just about 48 more hours before it's all inland. Time is running out.

[vbhoutex]

Nothing very impressive yet. Just about 48 more hours before it's all inland. Time is running out.

Let me ask the stupid question here. Are you talking about the BOC area or the W GOM area?

[Stormcenter]

Inland where?

Nothing very impressive yet. Just about 48 more hours before it's all inland. Time is running out.

[southerngale]

I'm confused as well. I thought that IF it developed into anything, it was still a few days away from doing so. If it's inland in 48 hours, that obviously isn't possible.

[Aric Dunn]

It all depends on where the if any a LLC would develop. if its farther west then the slow drift would bring it inland pretty soon after. if it were to take shape farther east or south in the BOC then it could be over water longer.

all I can see right now that is actually rather interesting is just ese of brownsville. radar and satellite are showing some signs that a weak circulation maybe forming.

its fairly easy to see the low level cloud lines that make a weak what seems like a developing band. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

I suggest who ever is up tonight to watch the radar out of Brownsville. because i suspect something could start to take shape soon as there are some indicators.

[Brent]

GONE from the TWO!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 615
MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Stormcenter]

Oh well........next.

GONE from the TWO!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 615
MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[supercane]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 260605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

<snip>

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 93W...CONTINUING ACROSS
ALL OF MEXICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE THAN ONE INDIVIDUAL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE MIXED INTO THE COMPARATIVELY
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN WESTERN MEXICO FROM 23N TO 28N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER...INTO MEXICO FROM 20N TO 28N. A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N93W...TO 24N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS FROM 24N TO
27N BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND 85W. A SEPARATE SURFACE
TROUGH GOES FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS INTO NORTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N IN
THE WATERS BETWEEN 92W AND 94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN GULF
OF TEHAUNTEPEC OF MEXICO.

<snip>

[Wx_Warrior]

JB thinks Thursday it may get a tad better organized.

[wxman57]

I'm confused as well. I thought that IF it developed into anything, it was still a few days away from doing so. If it's inland in 48 hours, that obviously isn't possible.

There's no center of anything out there, just a weak trof axis across the northern Gulf associated with a decaying frontal boundary. Across the BoC, there's a weak tropical wave axis. Neither is producing any organized convection. Models move the upper-level feature across the northern Gulf inland into the lower to mid Texas coast tomorrow night as a massive area of high pressure builds across the eastern U.S. and extends out into the Gulf.

The tropical wave axis in the BoC will be moving inland into Mexico on Friday as well.

Development chances are quite low, way under 10% now. Significant rain chances for the upper Texas coast are also low. We'll see an increase in moisture as Gulf flow deepens this weekend, leading to some afternoon storms. That's about it.

[tailgater]

A little something SSE of Brownsville and larger broader area south Houma seen on the Low clouds loop.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=lc

[Aric Dunn]

yeah just keep watching the Brownsville radar. satellite and radar are still showing a small low developing ..

[southerngale]

Ok, I got it now. Thanks for the explanation, wxman57.

[southerngale]

JB tweet, about 9:30 p.m. last night:

System coming off Africa should get named before months end.. and home brew in western gulf will look better tomorrow

[Portastorm]

I hope JB is right because the latest developments have left me with depression ... and not the kind (tropical) I was hoping for!

The weekend forecast for south central Texas is getting drier every update.

[djmikey]

I hope JB is right because the latest developments have left me with depression ... and not the kind (tropical) I was hoping for!

The weekend forecast for south central Texas is getting drier every update.

Same here in SETX...NWS started with 60% Saturday/Sunday and now we are at 20% Saturday and 40% Sunday. IMO, I think this system is a bust. NWS is not even recognizing it anymore.

[Aric Dunn]

Another area to watch that is associated with the same trough ... is just south of LA. satellite, radar and surface obs indicate a surface circ and convection is on the increase. neither of the two area are very organized but both still need to be watched closely as it is that time of year..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html