Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[HURAKAN]

If it moves over the Atlantic it will be over the Gulf Stream for sometime. Moreover, most of the convection over Florida today was probably normal diurnal heating, sea-breeze related.

[Aric Dunn]

If it moves over the Atlantic it will be over the Gulf Stream for sometime. Moreover, most of the convection over Florida today was probably normal diurnal heating, sea-breeze related.

correct the late afternoon convection was most likely daytime heating ...

[cpdaman]

i would give this a very low chance of being named anything, appears the circulation has weakened (precipitation not taken into account)

[Sanibel]

Either the center or west end of the elongated center is over the center of the state SW of Orlando. Being over land took its energy away and it weakened quickly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is definitely still a nice spin on radar southeast of Daytona Beach:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Now that this area of spin is nearly offshore, we will need to watch it closely. Chances are generally against development, but it certainly wouldn't be impossible. Let's see how things look in the morning...

[Aric Dunn]

yep its emerging off the coast as we speak.. we will see if any decent convection increases again.. that will be the determining factor

[KWT]

Yep quite evident ion the radar that the mid level low is coming offshore and coming into the Atlantic, maybe worth watching still if it gets over the gulf stream.

[Aric Dunn]

roughly 29.3n 80.7w ... itrs pretty evident on radar,.. now that at least some convection i slowly firing..

which is east of flagler beach by about 20 miles

[tailgater]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB this morning says it has crossed Florida. He says he expected it would go on the Gulf side, and admits the GFS was closer to the facts than he was.


JB does admit when he misses a bit on a forecast.


JB says possible Carolina threat, likely below hurricane strength...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks good from this angle...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking good off the NE Florida coast...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[DESTRUCTION5]

All systems look like a Go here...I think this is where we will find Christobal by tomorrow..Attention Shifted...I agree with JB here..

[Sanibel]

Weak, but clear structure and spin off Jacksonville. See if the Gulf Stream gets it going.


(Need new thread title. Storm is off NE FLorida.)

[OuterBanker]

TAFB must not think much of it. It dropped the low formation potential it had at 5 off the se coast. And makes no mention at all to the Fl low in 8 am discuss. A bit odd though, circ is quite obvious in visible and radar. Maybe they think there is too much dry air, and there seems to very little convection.

[cpdaman]

unless this thing unexpectedly strengthens fast i would think it would follow low/mid level flow and just drift toward S/C GA border.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think this is a classic set up for a Carolina name and landfall..

[HURAKAN]

[jasons2k]

Winds in Savannah are from the NE, wInds in JAX are from the N, winds from Daytona to Orlando are from the WSW and SW...this is in-line with the center offshore

[cpdaman]

yup morning quikscat showed a surface circulation , destruction i don't think it will have time to it's act together enough, also it appears to be drifting NW already