2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[tolakram]

This season can't do anything except disappoint.

In my opinion, and this is a strong one. Counting storms is NOT objective, it's subjective. If we have 8 cat 5 hurricanes this season and that's all, was it slow? It's just silly and can do nothing except hurt the institutions that live or die by the numbers.

If this season ends up unusually inactive, and I'm not predicting that, maybe some improvements will result. Since we've already had a cat 5 in July, if this season ends up being unusually inactive what will that tell us?

And I think it was in this thread, hopefully quoted, that there's no spring barrier this year.

Honestly I think cold neutral is far worse (more activity) than a full la nina anyway.

It's still not hyper, but so far what a crazy season. I think my point is still valid, big storms causing a lot of grief is more important than the count, but disappointed? NO.

We're still in the 70's up here, stuck in some early fall pattern. I can't find any relationship between this and hurricane season, but I would not be surprised at this point to see some very late activity.

This is only getting worse. Will this be the last storm of the season?

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances that the low that is supposed to drop into the subtropical Atlantic ahead of Sara could become sub/tropical in itself? I know a lot of models show a 970-985 mb low near Bermuda next week. Could we see Tony out of that?

[weeniepatrol]

This season can't do anything except disappoint.

In my opinion, and this is a strong one. Counting storms is NOT objective, it's subjective. If we have 8 cat 5 hurricanes this season and that's all, was it slow? It's just silly and can do nothing except hurt the institutions that live or die by the numbers.

If this season ends up unusually inactive, and I'm not predicting that, maybe some improvements will result. Since we've already had a cat 5 in July, if this season ends up being unusually inactive what will that tell us?

And I think it was in this thread, hopefully quoted, that there's no spring barrier this year.

Honestly I think cold neutral is far worse (more activity) than a full la nina anyway.

It's still not hyper, but so far what a crazy season. I think my point is still valid, big storms causing a lot of grief is more important than the count, but disappointed? NO.

We're still in the 70's up here, stuck in some early fall pattern. I can't find any relationship between this and hurricane season, but I would not be surprised at this point to see some very late activity.

This is only getting worse. Will this be the last storm of the season?

To be fair, an early July cat 5 followed by a dead peak season and then 5 majors after mid Sept wasn't exactly on ANYONES' radar as a possible outcome.

[weeniepatrol]

In terms of increasingly backloaded seasons, this has to be by far the most egregious one. Any input about this? Trying to make sure I'm not exhibiting recency bias here.

[WalterWhite]

In terms of increasingly backloaded seasons, this has to be by far the most egregious one. Any input about this? Trying to make sure I'm not exhibiting recency bias here.

2020 is still probably more back-loaded. 5 major hurricanes during October and November with only 2 from May to September

For 2024 to be more-backloaded, we would need 3 more major hurricanes before the year ends, and seeing as how no major hurricane has ever been recorded outside the bounds of the hurricane season in the Atlantic, I do not think this is probable at all.

[weeniepatrol]

In terms of increasingly backloaded seasons, this has to be by far the most egregious one. Any input about this? Trying to make sure I'm not exhibiting recency bias here.

2020 is still probably more back-loaded. 5 major hurricanes during October and November with only 2 from May to September

For 2024 to be more-backloaded, we would need 3 more major hurricanes before the year ends, and seeing as how no major hurricane has ever been recorded outside the bounds of the hurricane season in the Atlantic, I do not think this is probable at all.

I don't think just # major count alone is the only metric to gauge backloadedness by.

We started this October at around 75 ACE.

2020 started October with over 100 ACE.





IMO, 2020 is very impressive of course but 2024 is even more backloaded.

Put another way: we are currently 9 units of ACE behind 2020 for the date despite starting October off ~30 units lower than 2020 did.

[weeniepatrol]

One more point for my argument. This season, we currently have roughly 50% of seasonal ace produced after 30 September (80/160 = 0.5) And that number will increase as Sara develops and intensifies. For example if Sara yields 20 ace then it becomes 100/180 = 0.55555 or 55-56% produced after 30 September.

For 2020, “only” about 42% of ace was generated after 30 September (75/180 = 0.42) And 2020 is THE quintessential and textbook backloaded season!!

Disclaimer: these numbers are relatively rough estimates; I eyeballed 2020 ace on 1 October as 105 units, and 2024 as 80. Could be a couple lower or higher. If someone has the exact values, please redo the math so that we can compare. I’m quite curious..

[WeatherBoy2000]

In terms of increasingly backloaded seasons, this has to be by far the most egregious one. Any input about this? Trying to make sure I'm not exhibiting recency bias here.

2020 is still probably more back-loaded. 5 major hurricanes during October and November with only 2 from May to September

For 2024 to be more-backloaded, we would need 3 more major hurricanes before the year ends, and seeing as how no major hurricane has ever been recorded outside the bounds of the hurricane season in the Atlantic, I do not think this is probable at all.

I don't think just # major count alone is the only metric to gauge backloadedness by.

We started this October at around 75 ACE.

2020 started October with over 100 ACE.

https://i.imgur.com/SaijiFj.png

https://i.imgur.com/YQFSSYL.png

IMO, 2020 is very impressive of course but 2024 is even more backloaded.

Put another way: we are currently 9 units of ACE behind 2020 for the date despite starting October off ~30 units lower than 2020 did.

There's also a decent chance that we'll see another major hurricane soon. This would tie 2020 with the number of hurricanes and storms to develop In October and beyond (I'm counting Kirk in the hurricane metric because he didn't become a hurricane until October). 2024 with potentially four majors (Kirk, Milton, Rafeal, and Sara?) would only be down by one from 2020.