TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

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Josephine96

#261 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:12 pm

I'll call the NHC.. whats the #? :lol:
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Damar91
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#262 Postby Damar91 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:12 pm

I think the morning will be very revealing as to what is really going on.
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Josephine96

#263 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:13 pm

i smell a track shift coming..
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Extremeweatherguy
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#264 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:14 pm

I think the NHC is either...

A. waiting to make sure this is really happening and is not just a short term event.

OR

B. (most likely) waiting for the models to shift south.

NHC rarely likes to go against the models.
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boca
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#265 Postby boca » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:14 pm

Which center is it you make the call.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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ROCK
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#266 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:15 pm

I think they split the difference with the center. Its right in between the SW blob and the NE blob.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Damar91
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#267 Postby Damar91 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:15 pm

As usual, our local met spent about 5 seconds talking about it.
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#268 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:15 pm

cloud tops are warming a bit, but I guess that's to be expected.
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BensonTCwatcher
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#269 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:16 pm

OK last post tonight 8-)

The timing looks off to me

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

To make the weakness and pull up, it would need more fwd speed. The soon to be cut off ULL is being cut off by the Bermuda high and is actually building south. This looks different than the globals just a tad timing wise... but hey who knows? speed is key as usual.
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Josephine96

#270 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:17 pm

Channel 2 Local Met basically says "she'll be watched very closely".
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ROCK
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#271 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:18 pm

The dominant IMO pulled right into the convection that exploded earlier. You got instant deepening like we have never seen before and still have it. The blob to the SW is still firing convection but is moving SW. NHC split the difference and called it WNW b/c they are not sure which center is the main center......thats just how I see it....
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Josephine96

#272 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:20 pm

Guess they like covering all the perameters don't they :lol:
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#273 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:20 pm

Let's see this major track change????
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ROCK
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#274 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:21 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:cloud tops are warming a bit, but I guess that's to be expected.



Saw that to with the SW center building.....if the sw center becomes the true center then its going to be major shift left time and FL is going to have a big issue, IMO.....
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Josephine96

#275 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:23 pm

Give it some patience for the track.. Next advisory isn't till 5 am :wink:
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#276 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:24 pm

I just don't see it happening....Talked with several pro mets...Opinions are opinions, but I like educated guesses.
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#277 Postby Fego » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:24 pm

Forget if the center is SW or NE. Do not call the NHC. Lets ask to the prime suspect itself: Florence! :cheesy:
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JTD
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#278 Postby JTD » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:25 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:I just don't see it happening....Talked with several pro mets...Opinions are opinions, but I like educated guesses.


See what happening?
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jaxfladude
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#279 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:25 pm

Local TV met here in Jacksonville, Florida thinks, as of now, that Florence will re-curve out to sea 600 to my east around Sunday.....Lots of "if'"s still but it looks good for my area..................FISH-Casting


Sorry Florence, but Florida and the rest of all the islands and landmasses are closed for land-falling hurricanes.....WE have had enough.......
Last edited by jaxfladude on Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Josephine96

#280 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:27 pm

Still way too early to tell what she wants to do..
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