92L Invest

[gkrangers]

073
WHXX01 KWBC 300129
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050730 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050730 0000 050730 1200 050731 0000 050731 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 65.9W 18.5N 67.8W 19.6N 69.7W 20.8N 71.5W
BAMM 17.6N 65.9W 18.2N 68.4W 19.1N 70.6W 20.1N 72.6W
A98E 17.6N 65.9W 18.3N 68.5W 19.1N 70.5W 20.1N 72.3W
LBAR 17.6N 65.9W 18.7N 68.4W 19.9N 70.5W 21.2N 72.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 27KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050801 0000 050802 0000 050803 0000 050804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.0N 73.2W 23.9N 75.7W 25.1N 77.3W 26.3N 78.2W
BAMM 21.2N 74.4W 22.7N 77.1W 23.2N 78.8W 23.5N 80.2W
A98E 21.2N 74.0W 23.2N 77.5W 25.1N 80.3W 27.3N 81.1W
LBAR 22.2N 73.8W 24.1N 76.0W 24.9N 77.7W 26.0N 78.9W
SHIP 51KTS 58KTS 63KTS 66KTS
DSHP 39KTS 47KTS 52KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 65.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 63.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 60.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 300215
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER
RADAR DATA INDICATE THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER ...
EVEN IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT DEVELOP...SQUALLS PRODUCING
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


NHC sounds less bullish now.

[MortisFL]

Hey cycloneye...can you post the new 00z model graphics on 92L?

thanks

[Stormcenter]

ABNT20 KNHC 300215
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER
RADAR DATA INDICATE THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER ...
EVEN IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT DEVELOP...SQUALLS PRODUCING
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

Does that mean we should be more concerned? Oh I'm just
kidding.


NHC sounds less bullish now.

[Brent]

I'm bored with it waiting for it to develop.

[Swimdude]

I'm bored with it waiting for it to develop.

Yeah, no kidding. Unfortunately, this also means our 'active Atlantic days' goes right back to z-e-r-o.

[Stormcenter]

All I have to say is things can change very QUICKLY in the tropics. Beware!

[wxman57]

I've been looking at a 48-hr wv loop (and recent IR imagery). Looks like the focus for possible development is shifting eastward to the crest of the wave near 20N/60W. Typically, that's where development would occur, not on the leading edge where the recon flew today. The 18Z GFS may be onto something, developing a low farther northward then moving it out to sea to the north.

[Rainband]

I've been looking at a 48-hr wv loop (and recent IR imagery). Looks like the focus for possible development is shifting eastward to the crest of the wave near 20N/60W. Typically, that's where development would occur, not on the leading edge where the recon flew today. The 18Z GFS may be onto something, developing a low farther northward then moving it out to sea to the north.

GFS is earning some merit this season so far.

[bvigal]

I've been looking at a 48-hr wv loop (and recent IR imagery). Looks like the focus for possible development is shifting eastward to the crest of the wave near 20N/60W. Typically, that's where development would occur, not on the leading edge where the recon flew today. The 18Z GFS may be onto something, developing a low farther northward then moving it out to sea to the north.

I'd sooner believe that, than to believe it's going through the Caribbean. It's already too far north.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 302100
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA AND THEN
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.


ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


The TWO for 93L is posted at the 93L thread.

[cycloneye]

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND SW ATLANTIC ALONG FROM 12N72W TO 23N68W MOVING
WEST 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND
QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THE WAVE AXIS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE SHARP BUT
LACKS A DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. NONETHELESS...THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE VERY ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 65W-73W INCLUDING MUCH OF
HISPANIOLA WHERE SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE AMOUNTS
OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LOW TO THE NW OF
THE WAVE HAS YET TO PULL AWAY PRODUCING S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO HISPANIOLA IS
LIKELY INHIBITED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINS ...FLOODING...AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN AFFECTING THE S BAHAMAS AND E CUBA
LATER TONIGHT THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS
AND W CUBA ON SUNDAY.

[deltadog03]

ok this sucker is starting to "FAN" out...specially on the southern side...you can really start to see it....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

046
ABNT20 KNHC 310204
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
THEN EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

OF course theres no development. It is over Hati/DR....

[bellavista2]

rain and wind
anyone really see more than that.
any reason anybody should be looking for the numbered plywood in next 72 hrs.

[Sanibel]

Crashed into Hispaniola...

[elysium]

What is that rotation about 75 to 100 miles north of Puerto Rico? New center forming? This wave is tenacious.

Does anyone else see the rotation? Looks to be clustering somewhat as well. Is that a part of 92L? Beginning to show moderate convection.

[elysium]

After further review, the suspicious area of rotation north of Puerto Rico appears to be consolidating. If this activity persists, we may in fact have a new center forming approximately 75 miles to the north of Puerto Rico. Since from its inception 92L has had several other such suspicious rotational clusters, none of which to date has materialized fortuitously, and has in fact waxed and waned from time to time, we must yet again once more wait and see.

Interestingly, if 92L can get off the ground, a few of the models are hinting at reasonable conditions for some further development. If the ridge can build in robustly, and if 92L can develop and maintain its intregal developmental composition while becoming more and more organized along the lines of a true cyclone complex, we might then begin to look ahead for possible landfall sites, etc. However, at this early stage, we need first to make sure that 92L is reforming its center. The old center has all but washed out. If regeneration is not occurring, there would be nothing further that could be done with 92 except of course to review its history noting what went wrong and why. These type storms when under the right conditions, can offer a formidable alternative to coastal habitat and we do well to watch them. 92L is currently of little threat.

[P.K.]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310905
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART