Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#261 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:38 pm

Looks like the real deal here folks.

Image
5 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7182
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: RE: Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#262 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:41 pm

SFLcane wrote:Looks like the real deal here folks.

Image
Gfs happy hour incoming, get ready for liftoff.
1 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#263 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:44 pm

18z GFS should be fun… but something tells me SW/SEFL won’t be the target, it is far out though so probably won’t hold my breath.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
Keldeo1997
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 637
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#264 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:52 pm

Image

Much stronger so far :double: :double:
0 likes   
Top
IcyTundra
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Dickinson, Texas

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#265 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:53 pm

997 MB by hr 48 I don't see it strengthening that fast imo.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#266 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:56 pm

So far down. If this was coming in mid LA’s it probably would follow Fiona up and out.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#267 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:56 pm

Such a storm that strong should feel weakness sooner rather than later I’d say.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#268 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:01 pm

GFS already has a high-end TS / minimal hurricane before passing the islands at +66.

Image
Last edited by kevin on Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#269 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:01 pm

0/20 when the models are showing development within 48 hours :lol:
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#270 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:01 pm

Has a hurricane Just east of the islands. Woah let’s hope that’s overdone
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#271 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:03 pm

Even Papin is getting on with the memes lol, could replace wxtwitter with S2K as well :D

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1571979645230223361





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
7 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#272 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:03 pm

Further north also this should definitely feel that weakness
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#273 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:05 pm

18z GFS goes east of FL is my early thought
0 likes   
Top
IcyTundra
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Dickinson, Texas

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#274 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:09 pm

Diving WSW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#275 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:10 pm

Holy WSW dive after 102hrs, Ridge building in strong
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#276 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:11 pm

Even after the dive it’s further N than 12Z actually


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#277 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:14 pm

GFS 18Z is stronger and slower than the 12Z Euro at hour 120. GFS was a bit slow with Fiona too, so it will be interesting to see how quickly the disturbance moves.
0 likes   
Top
Keldeo1997
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 637
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#278 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:14 pm

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1571984043968983044


0 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#279 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:16 pm

18z GFS is even faster with development and briefly gets a weak C1 just after crossing the Lesser Antilles, but shear from Fiona and the trough it’s interacting with shear future Gaston and cause it to level out for a few days.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#280 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:18 pm

Definitely a more N track through the Caribbean through 144 hrs as compared to 12z
2 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, JtSmarts, kenayers, Noots, TomballEd and 44 guests