Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[NCSTORMMAN]

15.51 pass

So, the center is closer to the convection that fired up? Or am I reading that wrong? Big question is does the shear lighten up? Also, what is that spinning on Florida right now then?

[NCSTORMMAN]

Its a broad low.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

What is that? Also, could a storm in theory form under that deep convection? Or does a storm always need a low first.

[NDG]

15.51 pass

That image is from yesterday morning, current time is 13:43z, bottom of the image says 15:51z

Here is the most recent image I could find, it was from late last night, basically the well defined circulation from earlier in the day was gone or was inland by then.

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[wxman57]

Its a broad low.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

What is that? Also, could a storm in theory form under that deep convection? Or does a storm always need a low first.

Kind of a chicken or the egg question. Persistent deep convection results in rising air and a lowering of surface pressure. But what causes the persistent deep convection? Sometimes it's a weak area of low pressure at the surface, but it could be an upper-level feature.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Its a broad low.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

What is that? Also, could a storm in theory form under that deep convection? Or does a storm always need a low first.

Kind of a chicken or the egg question. Persistent deep convection results in rising air and a lowering of surface pressure. But what causes the persistent deep convection? Sometimes it's a weak area of low pressure at the surface, but it could be an upper-level feature.

Being a programmer you always have to ask questions like that. I like soaking up knowledge as much as I can. Never knew that and now I do. I have seen where storms formed under deep convection but never no mentioning of a low until the convection got rather large.

[Stormcenter]

So wxman57 what do see this thing doing if anything?

Its a broad low.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

What is that? Also, could a storm in theory form under that deep convection? Or does a storm always need a low first.

Kind of a chicken or the egg question. Persistent deep convection results in rising air and a lowering of surface pressure. But what causes the persistent deep convection? Sometimes it's a weak area of low pressure at the surface, but it could be an upper-level feature.

[NCSTORMMAN]

A garden variety storm don't need to be a low it can come from many source's ie a front, sea breeze,mid level trough That deep convention i think is associated with the mid level circulation and not a garden variety storm or a collapsing storm.

Can a mid level circulation form a storm?

[wxman57]

A garden variety storm don't need to be a low it can come from many source's ie a front, sea breeze,mid level trough That deep convention i think is associated with the mid level circulation and not a garden variety storm or a collapsing storm.

Can a mid level circulation form a storm?

Sure. Mid and upper-level lows that generate persistent convection can develop surface lows and become tropical cyclones.

I don't think this system in the NE Gulf has much of a chance, but we may see a low farther NE become a TS in the next few days. No threat to the U.S. but possible Newfoundland threat.

[wxman57]

I can't look at much data today, as I'm in a car traeling to Ft. Worth for a 1pm meeting. Be back home late tonight and in the office tomorrow.

[tropicwatch]

From this mornings discussion:

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN THIS
MORNING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. WHILE PROVIDING A GENERALLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...A SURFACE WEAKNESS IN THE FORM OF A 1013 MB
LOW CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W AND SURFACE TROUGHING
EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM 26N-
29N BETWEEN 83W-87W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS FOR THE
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N84W WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD.

[NCSTORMMAN]

That deep convection sure does seem to be spinning ever so slightly.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

well dang it, I am supposed to have a big pool party Saturday and was hoping all this persistent rain would be long gone by then when I made these plans 2 weeks ago. I knew last weekend would be a wash, but expected things to clear out by a week later! ugh. I guess it is gonna be a Sharknado Watch Party now versus a BBQ & Pool Party. bummer. even got festive lights and a great big shade dome.

So is there no chance of clearing out by the weekend?

[Sanibel]

Persistence being blown down by shear IMO. The season is starting to turn-on.

[psyclone]

another night of heavy rain here and waterlogged western Pasco county has been dumped on this morning. this is that warm atmosphere, tropical rain... we've all seen it, the soaking torrents with small to very small raindrops and either no or less lightning than you would otherwise expect with such heavy intensities. at this point I wish a system would form and do something just to end this water torture. this weekend I filmed catfish swimming down the sidewalk. ridiculous.

[HeeBGBz]

Looks like it's trying to pull away from land going wsw.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hahaha psyclone! I hear ya! I'm in northern Clearwater and it has been insane the last few days! I think we are in that sliver along with much of Palm Harbor and parts of Dunedin and Tarpon Springs that have been inundated! Haven't seen fish on the street yet, as I am on a hill, but I have seen lots of turtles free roaming in yards and sidewalks on the way to work that should otherwise be in ponds somewhere!

[tolakram]

Looking at the visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-81&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

The biggest swirl appears to be exiting the NE coast of Florida into the Atlantic.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Does anyone else see the spin that the convection is doing in the Gulf of Mexico and it seems like shear is not nearly as bad as yesterday. Yesterday the clouds were being blown right off any spin.

[Steve]

So the CMC and GFS especially sort of hint at 2 areas that CrazyC83, me and others have mentioned. As best as I can tell, a piece of the trough energy consolidates (tropical or not) and takes off Northeasterly which would represent what models a few days ago said might happen closer to the SE Coast. Then the next cold front comes down and leaves a piece of energy which consolidates and sort of just sits around the northern Gulf Coast. 00 CMC sort of closes something off around Mobile Bay then brings it up through the SE and off the US Coast. The 06 GFS sort of does the same thing, but it leaves that piece of energy lingering around the AL Coast. The GFS 12Z doesn't do as much, but a cold high comes down and then the moisture flow returns out of the tropics as it lifts out. Precip totals from that run pretty much run > 5" for almost all of FL and most of the Northern Gulf (run precip p_tot and full loop).

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... rea=namer#

I wouldn't say anything was necessarily going to form, but there's plenty of gulf moisture and warmth to work with to bring a lot of rain to the Eastern Gulf states.