Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2276
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#261 Postby bvigal » Sat Jul 17, 2010 2:26 pm

bvigal wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Circulation is very broad at best, but we are seeing a reduction in the dry air and convection is on the increase. I expect the convection to continue increasing as this wave approaches the TUTT.

WV Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
I agree about TUTT. The last couple days our thunderstorms carried gusts over 35kt (one local buoy recorded 48kt), courtesy reflected surface trough from TUTT. This is unusual here, not like on the mainland, where any old summer thunderstorm could gust to 45kt and nobody think anything of it. Today we have the trough sandwiched between two waves, with the next one, the subject of this thread, barreling west at 20kt. I'm wondering if our boring period has ended, we just don't know it yet. ;-)


wxman57 wrote:Have to keep an eye on the SW Caribbean with all the scattered storms there, but there is currently no model support for development. Canadian develops something, but always toward the end of the run. Earlier this past week, development was forecast to be today by the Canadian, now it's next Thursday.

Yes, wxman makes a good point, and makes me realize my comment might be misunderstood. I think TUTT is causing the enhanced tstorms we're having in PR/VI, not cyclonic development, and the wave may interact with it, too. Makes for lots of interesting satellite pictures to keep everyone watching and interested. ;-)
0 likes   

User avatar
lrak
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1770
Age: 58
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#262 Postby lrak » Sat Jul 17, 2010 2:45 pm

It looks like its just starting to gather more moisture from the Eastern Caribbean.
0 likes   
AKA karl

Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#263 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jul 17, 2010 3:01 pm

Too much dry air and UL winds with the TUTT for anything any time real soon in the Atlantic. The Western Carib. is about the only region that has any potential over the next week I'd say.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#264 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 17, 2010 3:06 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#265 Postby Vortex » Sat Jul 17, 2010 3:08 pm

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST SAT JUL 17 2010


FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED
ALONG 49W IS EXPECTED TO REACH 55W TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#266 Postby Vortex » Sat Jul 17, 2010 3:53 pm

18Z Nam for the second run in a row shows more organization to this system at the end of the run as it enters the SE bahamas..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2276
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#267 Postby bvigal » Sat Jul 17, 2010 4:41 pm

Here's good view of ULL (flash loop) north of PR mentioned in discussions.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html
18z UL vorticity and shear
Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#268 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 17, 2010 4:48 pm

A monster ULL is just to its north so thats certainly going to mean anything will struggle nearby...all depends on how it all evolves but any convection right now is certainly ULL enhanced.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#269 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:14 pm

18Z Para GFS 850 vort @ 90 hrs...

Image
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#270 Postby Vortex » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:14 pm

18Z GFS also indicates weak low pressure forming in the bahamas as well at H+96. Nogaps, GFS, and NAM are all beginning to converge on a similar scenario..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#271 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:18 pm

2 potential disturbances...

Image
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#272 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:28 pm

Image
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#273 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:30 pm

Bonnie, is that you? :D
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#274 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:35 pm

Certainly not in a hurry...

Image
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#275 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:35 pm

174

Image
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#276 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:37 pm

192 hours

Image
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#277 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:38 pm

Look at the wave coming off Africa. :wink:
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
BatzVI
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 199
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:27 am
Location: St. Thomas, Virgin Islands

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#278 Postby BatzVI » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:42 pm

Currently I'm at the CAC Games but in Salinas/Ponce, not Mayaguez...there was a tornado or something that hit Mayaguez today that damaged the stages for the opening ceremonies and they have been cancelled. 5 people were hurt. There has been on/off rain here in Salinas/Ponce area, but nothing like what must have happened in Mayaguez. Stay safe all.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145603
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#279 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:44 pm

BatzVI wrote:Currently I'm at the CAC Games but in Salinas/Ponce, not Mayaguez...there was a tornado or something that hit Mayaguez today that damaged the stages for the opening ceremonies and they have been cancelled. 5 people were hurt. There has been on/off rain here in Salinas/Ponce area, but nothing like what must have happened in Mayaguez. Stay safe all.


Hi my friend. You can see videos and more information about it on the Caribbean thread at USA & Caribbean Weather forum.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Weatherfreak000

Re: Large wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

#280 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:44 pm

I like development potential here, if the models stay consistent on this for another 24 hours im going to be very interested.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: jhpigott, kevin, TampaWxLurker and 97 guests