Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very intense convection and thunderstorms rotating on the northwest side
from Tampa towards the south, many bands of heavy storms...
Rainy Season Activity + A Quasi-Tropical Low

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
I expect a strong burst of wind with those squalls of storms

[Cyclone1]

Tropical downpour in Lakeland.

[Aric Dunn]

from the looks of it.. im now looking over the atlantic waters for development as the low is ever so slowly sliding closer the east coast.. also we may see redevelopment off the east coast tonight as convection should increase off shore tonight.

so who wants to start yet another thread.. lol

i say we all start our own just because ....

[Rainband]

from the looks of it.. im now looking over the atlantic waters for development as the low is ever so slowly sliding closer the east coast.. also we may see redevelopment off the east coast tonight as convection should increase off shore tonight.

so who wants to start yet another thread.. lol

from what our local news just said the low is near sarasota. So if thats the case then I doubt it.

[Aric Dunn]

from the looks of it.. im now looking over the atlantic waters for development as the low is ever so slowly sliding closer the east coast.. also we may see redevelopment off the east coast tonight as convection should increase off shore tonight.

so who wants to start yet another thread.. lol

from what our local news just said the low is near sarasota. So if thats the case then I doubt it.

its not possible..... i see where the "L" is placed.. but on radar the rain bands are plowing right through there so no low over there..

[Extremeweatherguy]

The "center" (at least in the mid levels) looks to be ESE of Orlando and WNW of Melbourne right now. It might have a chance if it can move a little further eastward toward the Atlantic.

[Rainband]

No offense but I will go with the pros location

[Aric Dunn]

No offense but I will go with the pros location

ok

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think the center is nearer to the east coast
A heavy squall moved by, some wind gusts to 35 mph
and heavy rain.

[Aric Dunn]

well i guess to prove my analysis..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

then hit the nws fronts..... what do you see?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... w&loop=yes
Aric Yes the center is just southeast of Orlando and moving ENE
slowly.

[harshrealm]

There are sure are a lot of active systems around for July! Global warming doing this again like in 2005?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

[MiamiensisWx]

Surface low has moved inland, which has prevented any possible development:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Mexico.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is it forecasted to stay inland or might it move offshore?

[ronjon]

TBH, I think a slow drift to the north is most likely. I see the center of circulation over northern Polk County now on RAD - it could drift off to the NE but it doesn't look like it now.

[Rainband]

Aric I stand corrected

000
FXUS62 KTBW 170025
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
825 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST
METARS PLACE THE LOW ROUGHLY NORTH OF ORLANDO...NEAR SANFORD. LACK
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS KEPT STORMS WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO A
MINIMUM. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS INDICATE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO 2.1-2.6 INCH VALUES THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL
MEAN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 00Z
SOUNDING CONFIRMS MODEL INITIALIZATION...WITH 2.25 PW. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 60 PERCENT NORTH OF A TAMPA BAY TO HIGHLANDS
COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...WHICH WILL BE TRANSPARENT IN AN UPCOMING
ZONE UPDATE.

[cpdaman]

lets play pin the tail on the low.

NHC loop places "L" just Sw of melbourne FL at 1015 mb (pretty high)

the low has been onshore for about 10 hours now, and there is still a yellow box for development over florida which now stretches out in the atlantic.

from my observations/memory these systems tend to gravitate toward NE florida just off the coast, so it will probably go somewhere else.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest radar analysis .. the low is nearing the east coast almost emerging over water, that should take place over the next few hours.. but it may come too late as we are losing a lot of convection and as of right now there is very little re firing. except one lone band forming along the east coast starting in daytona , if we get some refiing watch tonight as the low is still fairly well intact meaning still very evident on radar. im placing the over cape canaveral,

[Sanibel]

Dried up here and calmed down. Storm passed.