2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Landy]

Looks like CMC is back on board with development further west inline with Icon.

Back on board and with its strongest run yet by far.

[Landy]

00z CMC now joins GFS with showing a hurricane in the Caribbean next week. As for location, quite a ways west of GFS.

[LarryWx]

00z CMC now joins GFS with showing a hurricane in the Caribbean next week. As for location, quite a ways west of GFS.

The CMC is a much more believable scenario with TCG in the C Car rather than E Car.
Did the 0Z GFS run?

[somethingfunny]

00z CMC now joins GFS with showing a hurricane in the Caribbean next week. As for location, quite a ways west of GFS.

The CMC is a much more believable scenario with TCG in the C Car rather than E Car.
Did the 0Z GFS run?

For some reason it hasn't loaded into Tropical Tidbits but Pivotal Weather has the 0z GFS. It hasn't dropped the storm, still showing a major in the Caribbean. This time it makes it into the western Caribbean before turning northeast

[LarryWx]

Back in mid May, there were something like 25 GFS runs in a row with W Caribbean TCG that lead to modeled H landfalls  in many cases while other models were mainly quiet. Then about a week after the first run with it, the GFS dropped it and never was heard from about this timeframe again. I think that's likely what's happening now with its E Car TCG. I suspect it will at some point throw in the towel on E Car TCG. Perhaps then it will change to a much more reasonable C or W Car TCG.

[blp]

FWIW add NAVGEM to the list. Develops it in the E. Carribean and takes it over Hispaniola.

[cycloneye]

Never and that is never in history, a TC has made landfall from the west in Puerto Rico. GFS has that.

[kevin]

06z GFS is very extreme with a 919 mb cat 4/5 in early November. The timeframe is also pretty close now with some rough attempts at cyclogenesis around +66 and a well defined system by +120 hours.

Edit = this is the 18z run from yesterday, looks like TT doesn't have any new GFS runs after that one.

[Category5Kaiju]

06z GFS is very extreme with a 919 mb cat 4/5 in early November. The timeframe is also pretty close now with some rough attempts at cyclogenesis around +66 and a well defined system by +120 hours.

https://imgur.com/cZhenB3

Wait a min, isn’t that the 18z run from yesterday? Did GFS not update?

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Still showing a system in the @4 day range and then a MH now recurving sharply through NE Caribbean... GFS seems to be keeping genesis in the 4 day range in the past few runs...

[Blown Away]

00z CMC... Supports big hurricane in Caribbean... It appears if a hurricane does develop it will get pushed WNW in the Caribbean to 75-80 W, unless quick development like 06z GFS shows then a sharp recurve.

[Blown Away]

00z ICON on board with development in the @4 day range, weaker but development.

[kevin]

06z GFS is very extreme with a 919 mb cat 4/5 in early November. The timeframe is also pretty close now with some rough attempts at cyclogenesis around +66 and a well defined system by +120 hours.

https://imgur.com/cZhenB3

Wait a min, isn’t that the 18z run from yesterday? Did GFS not update?

Oh yes you're right, I'll update my post. GFS hasn't updated on TT since the last 18z run.

[Iceresistance]

06z GFS is very extreme with a 919 mb cat 4/5 in early November. The timeframe is also pretty close now with some rough attempts at cyclogenesis around +66 and a well defined system by +120 hours.

https://imgur.com/cZhenB3

Wait a min, isn’t that the 18z run from yesterday? Did GFS not update?

Oh yes you're right, I'll update my post. GFS hasn't updated on TT since the last 18z run.

It has on Pivotal Weather, College of DuPage, and WeatherNerds.

[wxman57]

Canadian and NOGAPS are terrible tropical models. GFS is bad at developing spurious cyclones beyond 3-5 days. Euro shows nothing. ICON has a weak low in the SW Caribbean Nov. 1. Much more believable.

[cycloneye]

There is a thread for the Eastern Caribbean area that NHC is highlighting and the posting of the model runs will be in that thread.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 5#p3005995

[Iceresistance]

The server for the GFS on TT has been restored and is starting to backfill, this will take a couple of hours to do so.

[chaser1]

How do ya explain the latest GFS run??
Movie Trailer: A NWS flunky, with some grudge against Purto Rico, acid tripping during his triple-shift at work who goes on to feed bad data into the upcoming forecast model run.

[canebeard]

The far far out times of the new 00z GFS run create a situation similar to the Perfect Storm of 1991. Late season October hurricane being absorbed into a large devolping N. Atlantic storm. The movie was very good, for suspence and very realistic ocean madness; but the meteorologial explanations about what was occurring was flawed. I believe it said the hurricane, Grace, was a cat 5 and was the main energy of the expanded storm. George Clooney, acting captain of the swordfishing boat, Andrea Gail, returned to make more movies. The Andrea Gail did not return to port.

[Iceresistance]

The far far out times of the new 00z GFS run create a situation similar to the Perfect Storm of 1991. Late season October hurricane being absorbed into a large devolping N. Atlantic storm. The movie was very good, for suspence and very realistic ocean madness; but the meteorologial explanations about what was occurring was flawed. I believe it said the hurricane, Grace, was a cat 5 and was the main energy of the expanded storm. George Clooney, acting captain of the swordfishing boat, Andrea Gail, returned to make more movies. The Andrea Gail did not return to port.

Can someone post the gif for this?