2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AutoPenalti]

If it's not the number of active storms, it's the ACE. If it's not the ACE, it's how weak they've been.


Jesus people, what do you want?

[cheezyWXguy]

A tropical wave developing a little before the LAs in very late September and moving into a potential favorable Caribbean for early October...I’m getting a bit of Matthew vibes from the combined CMC/UKMET/GFS-Para ensemble solutions.

Late-season activity in the Caribbean has been consistently underperforming since 2017, South Florida has managed to dodge numerous major-hurricane bullets since Irma, and this year’s ACE is subpar relative to overall activity and expectation(s). Most storms this year have been relatively unimpressive, aside from some exceptions, mainly Laura and Teddy. Until we have a major hurricane within seventy-two hours of landfall, I’m going to be quite bearish in regard to current long-range projections, especially as the GEFS tends to be too aggressive with monsoonal circulations. At this range all one can say is that the prospects for at least a short-lived TS in the western Caribbean may be enhanced. I’ll go out on a limb and say that we won’t see a major hurricane in the western Caribbean during October, given recent trends in that region since ‘17 and the relative dearth of (long-lived) intense storms vs. overall activity observed thus far in ‘20. Additionally, aside from Nana and Teddy, most of this year’s hurricanes have peaked outside the deep tropics, with the eastern MDR and Caribbean being “dead zones” vs. the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard, both of which are situated in the subtropics.

huh? no activity since 2017? No majors since Irma which was in 2017? What about Hurricane Michael Oct 7th 2018 CAT 4 almost 5 Panama City and Mexico Beach?

Michael was upgraded to cat5 in post season analysis. I am guessing he is talking about storms that reach major status in the Caribbean, but your point is valid imo

[robbielyn]

Late-season activity in the Caribbean has been consistently underperforming since 2017, South Florida has managed to dodge numerous major-hurricane bullets since Irma, and this year’s ACE is subpar relative to overall activity and expectation(s). Most storms this year have been relatively unimpressive, aside from some exceptions, mainly Laura and Teddy. Until we have a major hurricane within seventy-two hours of landfall, I’m going to be quite bearish in regard to current long-range projections, especially as the GEFS tends to be too aggressive with monsoonal circulations. At this range all one can say is that the prospects for at least a short-lived TS in the western Caribbean may be enhanced. I’ll go out on a limb and say that we won’t see a major hurricane in the western Caribbean during October, given recent trends in that region since ‘17 and the relative dearth of (long-lived) intense storms vs. overall activity observed thus far in ‘20. Additionally, aside from Nana and Teddy, most of this year’s hurricanes have peaked outside the deep tropics, with the eastern MDR and Caribbean being “dead zones” vs. the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard, both of which are situated in the subtropics.

huh? no activity since 2017? No majors since Irma which was in 2017? What about Hurricane Michael Oct 7th 2018 CAT 4 almost 5 Panama City and Mexico Beach?

Michael was upgraded to cat5 in post season analysis. I am guessing he is talking about storms that reach major status in the Caribbean, but your point is valid imo

Oh ok. Sorry missed that part. I was thinking he was talking from western carribean up into the GOM. thanks for the clarification

[aspen]

I think all of us talking about Caribbean majors (including me at some times) have forgotten that Maria peaked at 150 kt/908 mbar in the NE Caribbean.

[TheProfessor]

As much as I want to hop on board with the GEPS, CMC, and UKMET solutions I do hesitate as the MDR is expected to become more hostile over the next week or two and any wave that traverses it won't likely be in good enough shape yet to be a storm before hitting the LAs. I do think the GEFS and EPS is too far west with development and I think we're looking at something developing in between the east-central(just after the LA's) and the west Caribbean. The GEFS-Para may be right with the general location of development right now, however, where the storm goes afterwards is a tossup and really shouldn't be given much focus.

[StPeteMike]

Besides Laura and Nana, the northern Caribbean has gone relatively untouched. No major cruisers and it’s hard to say that the area has had any brewed storms, considering Nana took her time to develop and finally did so while in the area. Anything that goes through there will bomb out pretty quick, I won’t be surprised. I could see RE similar to Wilma with a potential system there.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the Canadian is hinting that something could spin up in the SW Caribbean at 240hrs and beyond??




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[TheStormExpert]

As much as I want to hop on board with the GEPS, CMC, and UKMET solutions I do hesitate as the MDR is expected to become more hostile over the next week or two and any wave that traverses it won't likely be in good enough shape yet to be a storm before hitting the LAs. I do think the GEFS and EPS is too far west with development and I think we're looking at something developing in between the east-central(just after the LA's) and the west Caribbean. The GEFS-Para may be right with the general location of development right now, however, where the storm goes afterwards is a tossup and really shouldn't be given much focus.

Basically more of a reason to believe that the short Cape Verde season is over. Time to start looking west and north closer to home.

[TheStormExpert]

If it's not the number of active storms, it's the ACE. If it's not the ACE, it's how weak they've been.


Jesus people, what do you want?

The vast majority of the twenty-three storms this seasons have been weak and short-lives though. With the exception of Laura, Paulette, and Teddy there hasn’t been really any big ACE producers. Though ACE should easily end above average just not the 200 units some were forecasting early last month.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS is stuck in CA which is certainly a good possibility.

[chris_fit]

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS is stuck in CA which is certainly a good possibility.

It’s a possibility as it happens more so than not, but the NAO is forecasted to go negative for what it’s worth.

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/sz515qU.jpg

Talk about some great luck going on!

[SFLcane]

Which is why Euro doesn't show anything in the Caribbean. I think These runs hitting Florida show bogus early development further east which they are gone now. For now I would have to side with Convective feedback

[TheStormExpert]

Which is why Euro doesn't show anything in the Caribbean. I think These runs hitting Florida show bogus early development further east which they are gone now. For now Convective feedback

It’s beyond the Euros 10 day range so of course it won’t show up just yet on the Euro. Give it a few days and see what happens. I just can’t see the Western Caribbean going untouched this October.

La Niña + High TCHP = Trouble

[chris_fit]

Here's the 12Z GEFS - Time frame coming in, starts pickup activity within 10 days. Below is a shot at day 11.

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS Raw tracks... some weak signals / tracks emanating from system (id7) E of LA...

[SFLcane]

Here's the 12Z GEFS - Time frame coming in, starts pickup activity within 10 days. Below is a shot at day 11.

https://i.imgur.com/rZVZ3dz.png

GEFS has the same convective bias as the GFS in these situations. We can't really use the rest of the hurricane season as a comparison unfortunately. I would like to see this on the EPS

[TheProfessor]

Here's the 12Z GEFS - Time frame coming in, starts pickup activity within 10 days. Below is a shot at day 11.

https://i.imgur.com/rZVZ3dz.png

GEFS has the same convective bias as the GFS in these situations. We can't really use the rest of the hurricane season as a comparison unfortunately. I would like to see this on the EPS

The EPS has been bad and has missed storms this year, waiting for that might mean waiting until the systems forms in the Caribbean. If the GEFS-para and GEFS were on their own, that would be one thing, but they also have the GEPS on board(which is likely a bit too aggressive right now.).

[SFLcane]

Here's the 12Z GEFS - Time frame coming in, starts pickup activity within 10 days. Below is a shot at day 11.

https://i.imgur.com/rZVZ3dz.png

GEFS has the same convective bias as the GFS in these situations. We can't really use the rest of the hurricane season as a comparison unfortunately. I would like to see this on the EPS

The EPS has been bad and has missed storms this year, waiting for that might mean waiting until the systems forms in the Caribbean. If the GEFS-para and GEFS were on their own, that would be one thing, but they also have the GEPS on board(which is likely a bit too aggressive right now.).

Burned to many times but this ridiculous model bias on the gfs. Meh...

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1308457623897993217