5:30
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
Tropical Wave at Caribbean
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Hyperstorm
- Category 5
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- Location: Ocala, FL
Over the past two days, Invest 92L has moved through the Caribbean Sea with no change in structure. The upper-level winds that had been forecast to become a little more favorable, remained unfavorable for any organization to take place. This is all due to an upper-level low over the south central Caribbean which has not moved as fast as expected. That being said, the wave is quite well-defined and any relaxation of the winds in upper-levels over the next couple of days (as is still being suggested by the GFS), could cause this one to spin up rather quickly.
Believe it or not, this year we have not yet seen the extremely unfavorable jet of upper-level winds that normally dives into the deep tropics by this time. Yes, upper-level winds are not favorable per se, but wind shear values appear to be below normal for this time of year (more common in La Nina years).
If this continues, a Lenny/Michelle type system in the Caribbean Sea cannot be ruled out before the season is officially over...
Believe it or not, this year we have not yet seen the extremely unfavorable jet of upper-level winds that normally dives into the deep tropics by this time. Yes, upper-level winds are not favorable per se, but wind shear values appear to be below normal for this time of year (more common in La Nina years).
If this continues, a Lenny/Michelle type system in the Caribbean Sea cannot be ruled out before the season is officially over...
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Derek Ortt
we just had 2 Michelle type situations in the last 2 weeks. Beta really fits in well with Michelle as they were in the same point of the season
I have to wonder how much atmospheric emergy is left in the area. Ocena wise, there is still plenty, but from an atmospheric vantagepoint, I am not so sure
I have to wonder how much atmospheric emergy is left in the area. Ocena wise, there is still plenty, but from an atmospheric vantagepoint, I am not so sure
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deltadog03
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Macon, GA
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4423
- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Brent wrote:deltadog03 wrote:bye bye tropics 05...i just don't think we have any left in the season...Derek, I think your right....atmos.. is not very conducive...
I think I'm going to agree this time(dodges things being thrown).
Yea I think its over as well....Atmosphere looks like Winter more and more every day...
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Maybe we will see another hybrid or some other weak system out there in the Atlantic and/or Caribbean, but largely I think we're done. We're almost surely done with the GOM season, and with US hits.
I hope I don't eat my words, but I think I'm saying this at the right time. Keep in mind I was NOT one of those declaring the season dead after Katrina, after Rita, etc. This is my first "I think the season is dead" call.
Not 100% dead either as explained above, but mostly over for all of our interests.
I hope I don't eat my words, but I think I'm saying this at the right time. Keep in mind I was NOT one of those declaring the season dead after Katrina, after Rita, etc. This is my first "I think the season is dead" call.
Not 100% dead either as explained above, but mostly over for all of our interests.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
It looks like the worst part of the season is over for the Continental US. We may see a few weak to moderate or hybrid systems form between now and the end of the year, but I do not expect anything major entering the GOM. The Caribbean may cough up a major, but I do not
think we will see anything major approach the US or enter the GOM.
IMO people in the Caribbean should keep their guard up still, as you
never know if a storm could pop, but US/GOM can relax slightly.
But I said slightly, not completely...
NO ONE SHOULD COMPLETELY LET THEIR GUARD DOWN
IT would NOT surprise me to see a brief massive burst of activity
before december 31st, but it may not be as massive as the bursts
we have already seen in 2005.
It looks like the worst part of the season is over for the Continental US. We may see a few weak to moderate or hybrid systems form between now and the end of the year, but I do not expect anything major entering the GOM. The Caribbean may cough up a major, but I do not
think we will see anything major approach the US or enter the GOM.
IMO people in the Caribbean should keep their guard up still, as you
never know if a storm could pop, but US/GOM can relax slightly.
But I said slightly, not completely...
NO ONE SHOULD COMPLETELY LET THEIR GUARD DOWN
IT would NOT surprise me to see a brief massive burst of activity
before december 31st, but it may not be as massive as the bursts
we have already seen in 2005.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Tue Nov 01, 2005 4:31 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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krysof
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
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- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
f5 wrote:NHC might have to make a winter storm names list .we also may hear new terms like arctic depression,arctic storm and arctic hurricane.I wonder what a CAT 5 with snow and cold temps feel like.just something to ponder
No, why would NHC do that?
NHC has NEVER been in charge of forecasting extratropical or mid latitude cyclones over the United States. They only do tropical or subtropical entities, and it will remain that way. Any winter type storm would fall into the extratropical or midlatitude cyclone entity, such as the 93 superstorm.
Local NWS offices are in charge of forecasting those type of events with national backup from such organizations as SPC. It has always worked fine, so there is no reason to change that.
Thus, there is no reason to name Nor'easters or any other winter type low pressure areas, no matter how strong they might be.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Some winter low pressure area events that have taken
place and impacted Florida:
1993: Superstorm- Category 2/3 hurricane conditions with winds/surge
1998: February- Severe Winter Storm Low Pressure:
Max Wind Gusts:
Clearwater Beach (near Tampa for ppl not familiar with it): 75 mph
Miami: 125 mph, 104 mph
*These are actual gusts reported at Airports and Recording Stations
2005: February- Gusts to 46 mph on Tampa Bay
March 2005- Another low pressure area produced gusts to 50 mph
in Clearwater
May- A low pressure area produced gusts to 45 mph
*Actual Recording Station Gusts*
That's like 3 weak tropical storms in early 2005...
My username "Tampa Bay Hurricane" sure brings a bunch of
TS-like systems to me-- which I don't mind, we need the rain here
with a dry summer here...just as long as those low pressure
areas stay WEAK I am fine.
place and impacted Florida:
1993: Superstorm- Category 2/3 hurricane conditions with winds/surge
1998: February- Severe Winter Storm Low Pressure:
Max Wind Gusts:
Clearwater Beach (near Tampa for ppl not familiar with it): 75 mph
Miami: 125 mph, 104 mph
*These are actual gusts reported at Airports and Recording Stations
2005: February- Gusts to 46 mph on Tampa Bay
March 2005- Another low pressure area produced gusts to 50 mph
in Clearwater
May- A low pressure area produced gusts to 45 mph
*Actual Recording Station Gusts*
That's like 3 weak tropical storms in early 2005...
My username "Tampa Bay Hurricane" sure brings a bunch of
TS-like systems to me-- which I don't mind, we need the rain here
with a dry summer here...just as long as those low pressure
areas stay WEAK I am fine.
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Scorpion
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