92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CHRISTY]

i think tomorrow may be a different story as far as shear goes,i think shear will drop tommorow to about 5-10 knots which right now it has about 25-30 shear over it so will see.

[StormFury]

I just cannot understand how a blob of convection which has been persisting for at least 4 days will not develop, especially this late into the season...unless wind sheer keeps up. Even then, this system will probably move into a more favorable area and conditions will ripen further. I just couldn't help but make these comments as I looked at this infrared satellite loop... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

[Lifesgud2]

I just cannot understand how a blob of convection which has been persisting for at least 4 days will not develop, especially this late into the season...unless wind sheer keeps up. Even then, this system will probably move into a more favorable area and conditions will ripen further. I just couldn't help but make these comments as I looked at this infrared satellite loop... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

I agree....Whats up????

[CHRISTY]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I just cannot understand how a blob of convection which has been persisting for at least 4 days will not develop, especially this late into the season...unless wind sheer keeps up. Even then, this system will probably move into a more favorable area and conditions will ripen further. I just couldn't help but make these comments as I looked at this infrared satellite loop... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

I agree....Whats up????

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO once conditions become favorable as they are expected to
by the NHC over the next 2 days, this system with its abundant
moisture will IMO go BOOM. The fact that the 18z runs then head
it up towards FL Suncoast 3-4 days out then becomes disconcerting
if the models continue to show that.

The local mets were hinting that we "may" get something stronger
than ordinary wind and rain with summer storms....

Dennis Phillips showed these models and said that we really need
to watch this one.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Whatever this system decides to do, I will be double-checking my
hurricane kit tonight. Not taking any chances after seeing how
Rita and Katrina exploded in the GOM, and with 4/5 models at 18z
bringing this too close for comfort.

[dhweather]

Whatever this system decides to do, I will be double-checking my
hurricane kit tonight. Not taking any chances after seeing how
Rita and Katrina exploded in the GOM, and with 4/5 models at 18z
bringing this too close for comfort.

Now there's a good idea!

[artist]

I love this -

FXUS62 KTBW 031730
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2005

...WET WEATHER STILL EXPECTED BUT WHERE WHEN AND HOW MUCH STILL TO BE
DETERMINED...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

92L has slowed and may be getting ready to form into a depression.
Shear expected to decrease..

[vacanechaser]

Here is the 18Z GFS... . Develops it off the east coast and brings it into the Carolinas




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricasne Intercept Research Team

[Anthysteg]

Models aren't showing much with this storm.


I'm waiting for the GFDL and NOGAPS.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Conflicting ideas...
Local met said a few models make this a hurricane.
But a few also dissipate it.

Hopefully it dissipates...

How's it looking now? Any signs of an LLC?

BTW I am gonna be completely glued to this thread
unless it dies or models shift far away from me.

[skysummit]

Bob Breck (NOLA met) just showed his "Vipir" model. It takes this into the Gulf, just south of Louisiana, and then the cold front pushes it back to the northeast kinda like the current LBAR, just a little further south.

[Bgator]

My meteorologist expects it to sit on top of south florida and drop heavy rains and possibly be a depression he says there is no model agreement whatsoever. Navy site has this at 1008mb with 30kt winds, just need a little more characteristics to become a TD!

[gatorcane]

IMO once conditions become favorable as they are expected to
by the NHC over the next 2 days, this system with its abundant
moisture will IMO go BOOM. The fact that the 18z runs then head
it up towards FL Suncoast 3-4 days out then becomes disconcerting
if the models continue to show that.

There is some room to be concern but until I see better organization, I'm not that worried. Again, however, like Katrina and Rita, this invest will be moving into the most favorable area in the western Atlantic for development.

[Anthysteg]

I just can't imagine this thing stalling out. I know this may sound like a wishcast but I really can't see it NOT hitting Lousiana if it gets under Florida or scraps it.


Even if this thing does do that we still get stuck with significant action. I feel kinda bad for the levees

[Rainband]

I just can't imagine this thing stalling out. I know this may sound like a wishcast but I really can't see it NOT hitting Lousiana if it gets under Florida or scraps it.


Even if this thing does do that we still get stuck with significant action. I feel kinda bad for the levees

Your right it does sound like a wishcast. The reason it wouldn't hit LA is because the trof will pick it up and move it NE. You may get some rain depending on how far into the GOM it moves but the east side is typically the wet side of a system.

[gatorcane]

I'm looking at the sat pics and having a difficult time. Where is the appx center of the Low currently. Can anybody tell me?

[Air Force Met]

If this storm is going to develop into anything significant (other than a big rain event with some wind...which is the least that will happen)...I think it will have to do it east of Florida...not west of Florida. West of Florida the environment is going to be too hostile to provide us with anything other than a hyrbid system. If it stays east of Florida...that is a different story. Further from the dry air and the upper levels will be better.

So...the question everyone should really be asking is: Where does it finally develop and track? That will determine if we are dealing with a hybrid system (GoM) or a tropical storm or hurricane (stays east of Florida).

[jrod]

The thing I dont like about the computer models is they are making it too fast, and they have consistantly been doing for a few days on this feature. This is a problem, if it does move slower than the computers are showing then obviously it will have more time over the water to develop.

Right now it looks disorganized and nothing appears to be ready to develop. The good news is all the reports/data I have looked at do not show the strong winds that Rita and Katrina had BEFORE they were even a depression, going with that alone this wave does not have the energy associated with those two. I believe this will become a TS before it gets to Florida.