Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Winds are now much calmer as the rainband passes to my west. Gusting
to around 15-20 mph now.

[Rainband]

Actually, I will passing to your north on my way to work

[Canelaw99]

[cycloneye]

05/1745 UTC 25.9N 78.8W T1.5/1.5 94 -- Atlantic Ocean




This morning the SSD position was.

05/1145 UTC 25.3N 78.7W T1.0/1.0 94

Means that it moved almost due north from 25.3n to this afternoon 25.9n and from 78.7n this morning to 78.8n this afternoon.

[WeatherEmperor]

05/1745 UTC 25.9N 78.8W T1.5/1.5 94 -- Atlantic Ocean




This morning the SSD position was.

05/1145 UTC 25.3N 78.7W T1.0/1.0 94

Means that it moved almost due north from 25.3n to this afternoon 25.9n and from 78.7n this morning to 78.8n this afternoon.

or could it mean that they just repositioned the center a bit further north? seems hard to believe it moved that much further north given its nearly stationary motion. Am I wrong?

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

maybe just relocated....I don't see any movement north....look at the low level flow right now....there is NE winds all over the east coast of FL

[jdray]

NWS JAX discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
139 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2005

...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE...

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER N
MEXICO AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE TO THE S
AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E US PRODUCING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA (COUNTY WARNING AREA). GRADIENT PRODUCING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20+ MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CWA WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOCAL
FCST CONTINUES TO HINGE ON DEPTH AND POSITION OF SFC LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS. MODELS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A GENERAL
SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED. MODELS WEAKEN TO UPPER TROF NW
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD MAKE MOTION EVEN SLOWER AND MORE ERRATIC.
HOWEVER...AS LONG AS LOW REMAINS S OF THE AREA...GENERAL NE FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY TIGHTENING FURTHER AS
THE LOW PROGRESSES N. EXPECT COASTAL SHOWERS TO CONTINUE A SLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...FAVORING NE FL AND EXTREME SE GA. HAVE
MADE FEW CHANGES TO SHORT TERM GRIDS EXCEPT TO REDUCE POPS OVER
LAND A BIT MORE AT NIGHT. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCE POPS THRU
THE NIGHT IN COASTAL ZONES.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THRU 8 PM THIS EVENING...AND EVENING
SHIFT CAN EVALUATED WHETHER TO EXTEND THIS IN TIME. MAY ALSO EXTEND
PRESENT ADVISORY A BIT FARTHER INLAND IN THE AFTN PACKAGE. NAM FOUS
SHOWS EVEN STRONGER WINDS FOR TUE...BUT NEXT ADVISORY CAN BE ISSUED
AFTER THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRES TO REDUCE CONFUSION.

TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN NAM AND GFS MOS...AND HAVE
BLENDED. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THRU THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...HAVE ADDED A BIT MORE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO POP GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES MADE. MUCH OF THE FCST THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK DEPENDS ON SFC LOW...AND THIS UNCERTAINTY HAS MANIFESTED
ITSELF IN ENSEMBLE MEMBER DISPARITY ON THU AND FRI. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE WET GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Proably so, until this afternoon, the LLC did not look so good. In fact the QS pass did not pick it up. Next one will though...

I am not sure I am buying the cross peninsula track just yet. I woudl like ot see the models a few runs after the center is established.

[CFL]

Local mets are not addressing this yet as far as I've heard. My mom caught TWC tropical update and she said they were talking more about it moving up along the east coast.

[Ivanhater]

Local mets are not addressing this yet as far as I've heard. My mom caught TWC tropical update and she said they were talking more about it moving up along the east coast.

jim was talking about it at 12, wpmi

[CFL]

What's Jim's take on it?

[Ivanhater]

What's Jim's take on it?

he just said models diverge and we have to keep a close eye on it

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Consistent gusts of 25-33 mph now occuring. HOW THE HECK IS THIS NOT
A DEPRESSION???? Sorry, but my current conditions tell me that this
HAS to be a depression!!!

[MortisFL]

Consistent gusts of 25-33 mph now occuring. HOW THE HECK IS THIS NOT
A DEPRESSION???? Sorry, but my current conditions tell me that this
HAS to be a depression!!!

Everyday T-storms can easily gust to that level.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

But the thing is I see no T-storms just cloudy skies.
It's like a Tstorm but the gusts last much longer
it's been windier than normal all day long.

[deltadog03]

OK, I just looked at the 12z EURO.....mmmmmm....NOLA....yeah, it shows a closed low heading into NOLA

[ameriwx2003]

The Pressure Gradient also is increasing the Winds over the Florida Peninsula:):)

[ROCK]

OK, I just looked at the 12z EURO.....mmmmmm....NOLA....yeah, it shows a closed low heading into NOLA

even a weak TD would raise the water level above the levees. Bad track if it verifies.

I am surprised Geraldo hasn't pick up on this and is screaming another storm on the way while he grabs someones kid....

[vaffie]

OK, I just looked at the 12z EURO.....mmmmmm....NOLA....yeah, it shows a closed low heading into NOLA

Could you please give the link to that? Thanks! -vaffie

[jlauderdal]

The beloved GFS, the model that has been insulted and riduculed many times by me and this board did a decent job with this sytem. Mid last week it said we would have a low developing on the trough in the Bahamas and here we are and that is exactly what happened. Nice Work GFS.