Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[toad strangler]

Important change of the timing at 8 AM TWO:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/Bzb6Yq4.png

And they lopped off 10%, but that may due to longer time frame.

[Teban54]

Important change of the timing at 8 AM TWO:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/Bzb6Yq4.png

And they lopped off 10%, but that may due to longer time frame.

The "cone" of possible formation also shifted slightly further west. The difference is subtle, but it's centered more around western Gulf now, whereas 24 hours ago it was around central Gulf if not a hair east.

[underthwx]

Important change of the timing at 8 AM TWO:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/Bzb6Yq4.png

And they lopped off 10%, but that may due to longer time frame.

The "cone" of possible formation also shifted slightly further west. The difference is subtle, but it's centered more around western Gulf now, whereas 24 hours ago it was around central Gulf if not a hair east.

https://i.postimg.cc/zXVtYN94/image.png

Good morning Teban!.....I noticed this shift as well....but I think Xman57 has a great handle on this possible system....whatever form it takes may indeed occur a bit further west perhaps?....but ultimately it MAY drift northward towards the north central gulf coast....and possibly Florida?......as a rainmaker...hopefully just a bit of rain....I like to read various forecast discussions...which to me shed some more light on this evolving system...for which the timetable for possible development has been shifted forward to the weekend timeframe...and the percentage of development lowered accordingly from 50%...to 40%....per the 8 am NHC tropical outlook....as all of you already know I'm sure....my question for you is.....what will the environment be like in terms of shear...or other inhibiting factors for formation...over the Gulf of Mexico this week...and into the weekend?.....thanks for any replies....and i wish everyone an epic day!!!.....peace out!

[SFLcane]

12z Icon Heading east...

[chaser1]

Huh? ICON not only doubles up on an eastward solution towards SW Florida but does so as a deeper 991 mb system than in its prior 0Z model run (showing 999 mb at 180 hr's).
The steering flow depicted on its own 500mb forecast defies the eastward motion it is showing. The fact that the system is deeper just makes that east track that much less realistic. Kudos to ICON for doing well this season on early detection of genesis but whatever strength (or slop) that comes out of this, seems destined to slide toward the North or N.E. GOM.

[SFLcane]

Cmc with the same general idea..

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Huh...are we talking about two different systems effecting the gulf coast in the next 14 days?

[psyclone]

WPC continues to depict a heavy rain event over the florida peninsula...less down south with a max over the central peninsula...i-4 corridor type zone. Max as of now is 10" just off the west central coast but the 5 and 7" zones are on land. Could be a slop storm...maybe something more ...or perhaps just a disorganized but heavy slug of moisture. At least it does not appear to pose a risk up north...it's mostly a florida thing. It's a signal for wet times at a minimum.

[wxman57]

Development of a low will likely be in the central Bay of Campeche over the next 3-4 days. Models are generally indicating a frontal low. Dry air will be present, as will wind shear. Looks like the 12Z GFS has a very weak low. I'd still pay attention to the ICON, which has a 35-40 kt frontal low in the central Gulf by early next week. Such a low would not carry TS wind inland. Very large circulation.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Cmc with the same general idea..

https://i.postimg.cc/ydQ0gqc0/vvvv.gif

Some models had this as a Cat 2/3 a day ago. i am not sleeping on this

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few
days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Michele B]

Important change of the timing at 8 AM TWO:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/Bzb6Yq4.png

And they lopped off 10%, but that may due to longer time frame.

I don't think that's for the same system. If you look at the graphic at the top of the page, I think the 40% is on the X to the right of "big foot."

Ooops, it looks like the "40" number (and system) I thought I saw has gone away....or maybe merged with "big foot," cause now there is NO "40%" there!

My bad...

[SFLcane]

Important change of the timing at 8 AM TWO:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/Bzb6Yq4.png

And they lopped off 10%, but that may due to longer time frame.

I don't think that's for the same system. If you look at the graphic at the top of the page, I think the 40% is on the X to the right of "big foot."

Its the same system lol its all rotating in the big gyre.

[Michele B]

2 PM:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few
days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/LNagnrZ.png

Well, shoot! HERE IT IS!!

ETA: I'm so confused....

[eastcoastFL]

Development of a low will likely be in the central Bay of Campeche over the next 3-4 days. Models are generally indicating a frontal low. Dry air will be present, as will wind shear. Looks like the 12Z GFS has a very weak low. I'd still pay attention to the ICON, which has a 35-40 kt frontal low in the central Gulf by early next week. Such a low would not carry TS wind inland. Very large circulation.

Is the BOC low that you're referring to different from the low currently in the W. Carib?

[TomballEd]

I see the ICON and CMS, but the ensembles aren't as enthusiastic about this. Most are weak,

[Cat5James]

12Z Euro has a closed low in the central gulf 5 days out

[SFLcane]

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

https://i.imgur.com/u7s6Bir.png

This seems like a completely different system, after the one that is currently painted

No?

[chaser1]

Yuk! That IS a EURO tropical-Sloppression if I ever saw one
Could be 4-5 days and up to 10" of rain for S Fla.