Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[pcolaman]

Took the long way around the GOM to end up at Panama City and Appilachicola. That size storm would stack a ton of water into the Big Bend.




This track would cause massive damage along the entire northern Gulf coast from Mississippi coast to the big bend. That's a crazy run and very scary!
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[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS Ensembles through 192 still seem to be hugging the eastern side of the GOM.


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[Beef Stew]

I’m also noticing that on this GFS run that it develops in the western Carib and it avoids all land interaction as it splits the gap between the Yucatán and western Cuba. It’s already a significant storm before it reaches the gulf.

This run certainly wastes no time stacking the system- rapid intensification in the northern WCar followed by a (likely) 960 major by the time it even enters the GOM as it shoots the Yucatán channel and avoids any disruption. If that track were to come to fruition, a massive storm as depicted could be a believable result.

[Beef Stew]

And if anyone wants to have a laugh at one of the more absurd model solutions in recent memory, just watch what that MDR storm does at the end of the run

[ThunderForce]

I won't lie, to be honest this current GFS run makes me feel sick. The amount of destruction this would cause is immense.

I know it's still at least a week or so out, but...

[869MB]

And if anyone wants to have a laugh at one of the more absurd model solutions in recent memory, just watch what that MDR storm does at the end of the run

Yeah I just came here to say I didn’t what was more wild on that GFS 00Z run, the Category 5 Hurricane approaching the Central Gulf Coast or the southwest moving hurricane approaching the Dominican Republic/Greater Antilles from the northeast?

[Teban54]

Tropical Tidbits is less ideal than Weathernerds for viewing ensembles (as it seems to show pressure a bit lower and also doesn't show winds), but this is stronger than any run that I remember. Also stronger with the MDR storm.

(This run also suggests it will be a race for getting to the H name.)

[AxaltaRacing24]

Man this is a crazy scary run… let’s hope and pray this doesn’t come to pass. 216 hours and sub 930mb… looks to maybe be starting a turn to the NNE. Someone is getting wrecked on this run, big time.


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If this thing splits the channel, (like this run), it will most likely become at cat 2 at the very least. It's looking like Louisiana is the furthest west this thing will get, with Texas still having an outside chance.
That being said, the GFS ensembles show a STRONG signal for Florida that is anywhere from 6-10 days out.

We do not even have a storm yet, anything listed is essentially all that is known so far. Saturday into Sunday seems to be when the models will be in a realistic time range where it can be somewhat narrowed down.

[ConvergenceZone]

what's weird is seeing the models support, yet when you look at the western carib satellite it seems pretty much void of any convection whatsoever.

[Ubuntwo]

what's weird is seeing the models support, yet when you look at the western carib satellite it seems pretty much void of any convection whatsoever.

GFS does not initiate deep convection until Sunday, probably a good bar to watch.

[Ubuntwo]

0z Euro ends with a 1000mb TS slowly drifting E out of the Bay of Campeche.

[N2FSU]

Another look at the doomsday 0z GFS:




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[N2FSU]

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[N2FSU]

Landfall 0z GFS




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[kevin]

Up to 0/40.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the
north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Stratton23]

The 00z Euro AIFS is something you would see in willy wonka, thats is by far the most wonkavator track ive ever seen, storm crosses the yucatan as a TS, moves west toward mexico, then stops, makes a loop south, and the. goes back east with another landfall over the yucatan peninsula, weirdest model track ive ever seen

[kevin]

The 00z Euro AIFS is something you would see in willy wonka, thats is by far the most wonkavator track ive ever seen, storm crosses the yucatan as a TS, moves west toward mexico, then stops, makes a loop south, and the. goes back east with another landfall over the yucatan peninsula, weirdest model track ive ever seen

Haha that's definitely a unique track . Tbf 00z GFS was also quite Wonka-esque, making this system into a GOM C4/C5 and sending an intensifying MH SW towards Hispaniola. Or is there some truth to this madness... guess we can only wait and see.

[eastcoastFL]

The 06z GFS so far is a bit weaker and further SW at 156hrs.

[eastcoastFL]

Runs into the Yucatán at 168hrs 996mb.192h it reaches the gulf as a 990mb storm. Quite a difference a run can make. We're in for a long week ahead.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS




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