2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

Active 0z runs from both EPS and GEFS, most of the members are within the 240hr range, I think we are very likely getting a lemon soon if 12z keeps this level of activity.

[jlauderdal]

Active 0z runs from both EPS and GEFS, most of the members are within the 240hr range, I think we are very likely getting a lemon soon if 12z keeps this level of activity.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/8k0HnNj8/image.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3JztWYTj/image.png [/url]

Maybe a lemon but I dont think we get anything at the surface out of this, looks hostile in the gulf for at least a week and beyond. Plenty of heat and moisture to work with but the winds just do not look conducive. Sheared system with the carib wide open feeding moisture into the region, should be very easy to make rain regardless. Nice lightning show of sefl and swfl this morning.

[Stratton23]

jlauderdal i wouldnt write it off, ive seen systems develop in worse environments , it obviously wont be an extremely conducive environment due to shear, but I think its enough for a low to be able to close off into a weak depression maybe a tropical storm , upper level pattern favors a ridge over the central to eastern US, so whatever tries to get going is likely going to get steered more towards louisiana or texas

[jlauderdal]

jlauderdal i wouldnt write it off, ive seen systems develop in worse environments , it obviously wont be an extremely conducive environment due to shear, but I think its enough for a low to be able to close off into a weak depression maybe a tropical storm , upper level pattern favors a ridge over the central to eastern US, so whatever tries to get going is likely going to get steered more towards louisiana or texas

It could certainly find a window to close off, these sloppy systems have all kinds of solutions on the table. The moisture will be welcomed by whoever gets it, which remains to be seen. We have had storms the last two days in SEFL, and I have a total of .03 to show for it at my house. I did witness hail in Boca yesterday afternoon FWIW.

[Stratton23]

jlauderdal right now im thinking widespread 4-6 inches for most of florida with isolated 8+ totals in some spots seems like a fair bet, also will depend on where the system goes, steering pattern is a bit tricky

[Zonacane]

Lots of intense storms coming out of the ensembles. Doesn't look like the typical weak June mess.

EDIT: I would be curious to see what meteorologists like 57 are thinking. The environment looks more favorable than usual for June.

[tolakram]

You can see a disturbance on the Euro shear map, but I doubt this is at the surface.

[jlauderdal]

jlauderdal right now im thinking widespread 4-6 inches for most of florida with isolated 8+ totals in some spots seems like a fair bet, also will depend on where the system goes, steering pattern is a bit tricky

Seems very reasonable; we could easily handle 6 inches of rain here, and even if it fell in one afternoon, it would drain off in a day or so; we are that dry right now. My generator gets its monthly start and run for 15 minutes today, Good time for all of you to do the same especially you folks who have been negligent with your generators, if you think its going to get fixed with an incoming system, forget it, not happening. Get em ready now!

[AtlanticWind]

From NWS Miami

The long range models are showing that high pressure will remain
over the Western Atlantic waters with the mid to upper level low
over the Western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the models are
showing a tropical disturbance to move northward from the
Caribbean Sea into the Central of eastern Gulf of Mexico. This
will allow for the continuation of the south southwest wind flow
over South Florida and allow for very deep tropical moisture to
work into South Florida from the Caribbean sea. Therefore, likely
to widespread rains along with some thunderstorms are forecast for
South Florida for the middle to end of next week. Some of the
rains and thunderstorms could also produce heavy rains over South
Florida during this time frame. More on this in the hydro section
below.

Highs for this time will also be cooler over South Florida mainly
in the 80s due to the cloud cover and rains. However, the lows
will be warm across South Florida with mid to upper 70s interior
areas to around 80 metro areas.


Looks like a stormy week due to Tropical disturbance

[jlauderdal]

From NWS Miami

The long range models are showing that high pressure will remain
over the Western Atlantic waters with the mid to upper level low
over the Western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the models are
showing a tropical disturbance to move northward from the
Caribbean Sea into the Central of eastern Gulf of Mexico. This
will allow for the continuation of the south southwest wind flow
over South Florida and allow for very deep tropical moisture to
work into South Florida from the Caribbean sea. Therefore, likely
to widespread rains along with some thunderstorms are forecast for
South Florida for the middle to end of next week. Some of the
rains and thunderstorms could also produce heavy rains over South
Florida during this time frame. More on this in the hydro section
below.

Highs for this time will also be cooler over South Florida mainly
in the 80s due to the cloud cover and rains. However, the lows
will be warm across South Florida with mid to upper 70s interior
areas to around 80 metro areas.


Looks like a stormy week due to Tropical disturbance

GFS is rather aggressive with totals.

[Stratton23]

jlauderdal has to do with development , a closed low like what the GFS has would have more organized rain bands, and that could reslly amp up those rain totals

[HurricaneBelle]

]GFS is rather aggressive with totals.

How about a foot+ of rain in Pinellas County?

[psyclone]

Even WPC now depicts 5-10"+ over much of the florida peninsula. It's probably going to unload and it's going to be great. We need the water. Frog riot incoming

[cycloneye]

Good post from Levi.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1799557965676269666



In case any member can't see the X post, here it is:

Forecasts for tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico next week are rather inconsistent, but the situation will likely be governed by some broad themes:

A northward surge of tropical moisture from the western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico is expected beginning mid-week.

An upper-level trough over the central gulf coast will aid in ushering moisture northward and organizing thunderstorm activity, leading to possible formation of a broad area of low pressure in the gulf. The upper-level trough would also impose vertical shear and dry air on the developing low, most likely resulting in a sloppy-joe-style storm characteristic of June.

At a minimum, a multi-day period of heavy rain is likely for Cuba, parts of Florida, and the Bahamas as tropical moisture gradually encroaches northward, possibly creating flooding hazards. An organized, strong tropical cyclone with high winds isn't particularly likely in this setup, but we won't know for sure until a storm begins forming, if one indeed does next week.

[wxman57]

Looks like what we'll most likely see is moisture streaming north across the Gulf under relatively strong wind shear. This would not prevent a weak, sheared low from spinning up, but that's about it. Can't rule out a TD classification (exposed center, squalls to east) or even a weak TS classification. I know if the NHC flies into any squall in the Gulf then they'll find a 35kt wind somewhere.

[AtlanticWind]

Surprised the NHC has put a lemon on this yet
I would say this would have at least a
10 percent chance of some development
In the next seven days

Maybe tonight

[Cpv17]

Happy for you guys in FL. Hopefully those that need the rain will get plenty of it! I don’t recall seeing FL in this bad of a drought in a while.

[skyline385]

Euro got something finally

[Stratton23]

When the euro shows some development it does get you’re attention , but what has my most interest is the Euro and ensembles have been indicating that the steering pattern should favor this energy of energy/ tropical moisture to get pushed generally in the direction of the texas coastline, even with a system in the BOC, look at that moisture feed on the euro and where its getting funneled

[skyline385]

Euro also caved in to the GFS with the moisture getting pulled over Florida so SFL is getting its rain finally