Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Extremeweatherguy]

models seem to want to threaten PR pretty hard with this storm so lets hope it doesnt develop and stays weak however if it does take that track we hope its not much more than a weak TS and then goes fishing and doesnt threaten anywhere else.

Hell, if it's going to go fishing, I hope it develops into a CAT5! (I know this tropical system won't go CAT5 , but I say that about any fish storm). If it's not going to threaten land/islands, then go CAT5 baby!

This is not going fishing. The storm is already just east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving west. This will be in the Caribbean later tonight/tomorrow.

keep in mind this is exactly the time that Charley got going back in 2004....

yes, I remember him well. He hit me head on when I lived in FL. Scary stuff there..

Hopefully this won't become another Charley.

[skysummit]

gosh another South Florida threat....

Most likely not.

[shaggy]

models seem to want to threaten PR pretty hard with this storm so lets hope it doesnt develop and stays weak however if it does take that track we hope its not much more than a weak TS and then goes fishing and doesnt threaten anywhere else.

what models? the medium and deep bams?

BAMM and sorry to say but the LBAR but either way they all show this turning NW at some point and going out into the Southern Atlantic so it needs to be watched

[CronkPSU]

anyoen have the stats on how many times cuba gets hit with hurricanes, I have seen those for the gulf state/florida but it seems like they get nailed quite a bit ( i know i know, it is a huge island right between the gulf and carribean, perfect to be hit for storms)

[Thunder44]

The NRL main site has 91L Invest back up at 35kts with a pressure 1000mb and position at 13.0N 57.0W

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[bvigal]

The NRL main site has 91L Invest back up at 35kts.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

Argghhh! I've had it with those guys. (just kidding!)
Hey, want a kick? Play the avn loop backwards. Watch the big ball shrink!

[gatorcane]

The NRL main site has 91L Invest back up at 35kts.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

Argghhh! I've had it with those guys. (just kidding!)
Hey, want a kick? Play the avn loop backwards. Watch the big ball shrink!

backwards? lol

[ConvergenceZone]

models seem to want to threaten PR pretty hard with this storm so lets hope it doesnt develop and stays weak however if it does take that track we hope its not much more than a weak TS and then goes fishing and doesnt threaten anywhere else.

Hell, if it's going to go fishing, I hope it develops into a CAT5! (I know this tropical system won't go CAT5 , but I say that about any fish storm). If it's not going to threaten land/islands, then go CAT5 baby!

This is not going fishing. The storm is already just east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving west. This will be in the Caribbean later tonight/tomorrow.

Yea, I'mprobably just being too optimistic. I love to see hurricanes form, but only if they don't threaten land. Perhaps something can pull it northward in time, but we will have to see.

[Derek Ortt]

This may actually need to increase its forward speed to develop, as it looks to be encountering easterly shear still

[ConvergenceZone]

models seem to want to threaten PR pretty hard with this storm so lets hope it doesnt develop and stays weak however if it does take that track we hope its not much more than a weak TS and then goes fishing and doesnt threaten anywhere else.

Hell, if it's going to go fishing, I hope it develops into a CAT5! (I know this tropical system won't go CAT5 , but I say that about any fish storm). If it's not going to threaten land/islands, then go CAT5 baby!

This is not going fishing. The storm is already just east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving west. This will be in the Caribbean later tonight/tomorrow.

Yes, and if the high pressure remains in place for the next week or so, it should just go into Central America or Mexico. We all know they don't need a storm either.

I agree there, may not fish, but it probably won't be a US threat either due to the high pressure.

[bvigal]

12z surface from TAFB has a low again.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[jasons2k]

I am not optimistic with this system, at least not yet. Too many hurdles to clear over the next few days. If we have something still around in another 72 hours then my interest will be piqued, but not until then. Even if recon does find a LLC I won't bank on it lasting. As with Chris, if the usually hyper GFDL dissipates the system, I just can't get too excited...

[gatorcane]

This may actually need to increase its forward speed to develop, as it looks to be encountering easterly shear still

easterly shear is interesting, usually it is westerly where 91L is at....could the TUTT be weakening?

[MiamiensisWx]

91L is now looking much better organized this morning. Shear has become more diffluent and light over the system and has decreased a bit to below levels that would prevent development at the upper levels; now, outflow and convergence is being enhanced a bit more, as evidenced on this loop. In response to slightly more favorable conditions, convection has consolidated.

Looks like there MAY be a weak MLC (possibly LLC) getting established now as well. As the light shear continues to enhance outflow, we may be seeing our next depression shortly.

[gatorcane]

91L is now looking much better organized this morning. Shear has become more diffluent and light over the system and has decreased a bit to below levels that would prevent development at the upper levels; now, outflow and convergence is being enhanced a bit more, as evidenced on this loop. In response to slightly more favorable conditions, convection has consolidated.

Looks like there MAY be a weak MLC (possibly LLC) getting established now as well. As the light shear continues to enhance outflow, we may be seeing our next depression shortly.

CapeVerdeWave I'd have to say your diction has become alot more professional since the beginning of this season, now lets see what happens with 91L....

[Thunder44]

It looks like it's really trying to develop now. I see some banding features forming on visible imagery. Outflow seems to be improving as well.

[MiamiensisWx]

It'll be interesting to see the reports from the Windward Islands for sure...

By the way, can any links be posted to any buoys ahead of 91L? It'll be interesting to see those observations as well.

[ConvergenceZone]

The convection is growing in size!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Trugunzn]

I am not optimistic with this system, at least not yet. Too many hurdles to clear over the next few days. If we have something still around in another 72 hours then my interest will be piqued, but not until then. Even if recon does find a LLC I won't bank on it lasting. As with Chris, if the usually hyper GFDL dissipates the system, I just can't get too excited...

I agree

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

91LINVEST.35kts-1000mb-130N-570W