Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Normandy]

Its always been this strong it just now you can view it better.

[mobilebay]

Its always been this strong it just now you can view it better.

I agree. I seen someone posted the same thing the other day. that when convection is removed the circulation always seems more pronounced.

[marcane_1973]

Are you all serious!!!! This thing is a joke just like the other invests so far this 2006 season. I am sorry but atmospheric conditions better increase 200% to get this thing going.

[Bailey1777]

We'll see. It's ugly and weak I agree, but watch.

[mobilebay]

Are you all serious!!!! This thing is a joke just like the other invests so far this 2006 season. I am sorry but atmospheric conditions better increase 200% to get this thing going.

Thank you for those kind words of inspiration. That makes all of us, including the pro's at the NHC, wrong.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080855
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1075 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO POSSIBLY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO

[Bailey1777]

Nothing to get excited about but convection is starting to pop.

[mobilebay]

Nothing to get excited about but convection is starting to pop.

Actually I think that it has a pretty strong surface circulation and convection while minimal is on the increase. As long as you have this many members there will always be someone around to try and make you feel stupid. However, I'm not an idiot and I do know what I'm talking about. This was not directed at you Bailey.

[Bailey1777]

I didn't think it was. I actually feel we're on the same page with this one. Sure if more was going on we wouldn't focus much on this, but since it's the only player it's the topic of conversation.

[mobilebay]

We are on the same page. So is the NHC bailey.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080855
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1075 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO POSSIBLY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO

[Bailey1777]

Works for me.

[Bailey1777]

Buoy 41041

Wind-E
Wind Speed-21.4
Gust-25.3
Pressure-29.85

Buoy is 157 NM N/NW of center.

[colbroe]

.91LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-122N-436W
.

[Thunder44]

I will give this system one more chance this morning to develop some more convection around the center. Otherwise, I think it's another dud.

[colbroe]

still on its west ward track , gaining some momentum as is rools along

[tropicsPR]

The shortwave-infrared image shows that Invest 91L is gaining good organization at the lower levels and some convection is appearing again...Maybe a new phase of organization is beginning...

[JonathanBelles]

it stilll looks beter than chris

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not really Chris was a 65 mph tropical storm for a time. But it still has a defined LLC not as defiend as yesterday at this time. Also there is strong southly shear ahead of it by the looks of the clouds streaming northward. I would say theres a chance that some convection could fire over the center. As derek said that upper level divgences is everything. Meaning a low pressure at the surface needs to converge at the surface then the air moves up(Cools)to form clouds...Then this heat/air moves out in divergences. Which lowers the pressure.

If convection forms there is more of that...Then the system strengthens.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The upper level divergence is neg behind it...With just a small area of Positive ahead of it where the shear is forcing the air to rise. The shear ahead of it is 20 to 30 knots. On the front side of the Tutt which is centered at 55 west/25 north. This system yes the shear is going down over it. But I don't think its going to be strong enough to weaken the tutt very much. Also the convergence is none zero ZIP! Even with a LLC which you would expect to be able to rise air to form to form clouds. Nothing. Its going to get worst for this system...

Yes nice LLC but no convection...Heck if this keeps up I expect the nhc to open...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

[mobilebay]

Yes nice LLC but no convection...Heck if this keeps up I expect the nhc to open...
Also there is strong southly shear ahead of it by the looks of the clouds streaming northward. I would say theres a chance that some


Matt, NHC Open what? Does the NHC not know what they are talking about? Southly Shear?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That was a Mistake=Nhc I was going to say LLC. Also look at the clouds streaming northward...Also look at the shear maps from 45 to 55 west there is a strong shear zone/tutt there.