91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[cpdaman]

looks like LLC kinda went "limp"

as t'storms collapsed on west side

maybe it will reform further southeast

[Stratusxpeye]

That track is horrible. Would put us here here in tampa area and pasco on the mainly drier side. We need the rain. Ill hope for a more south track but most likely not going to happen.

[Derek Ortt]

there is no LLC yet, just a broad surface low

[stormtruth]

Here are some other model runs, mostly 18Z. Initial track forecasts are in good agreement. Looks reasonable with a deepening trof approaching the east coast by Sunday evening. I think we're looking at a weak, sheared TS at worst, maybe 40-50 mph winds at landfall.

Sounds like Alberto #2. Maybe it will cause more problems for SC and NC then it did for Florida just like Alberto did.

[jpigott]

looks like there is some convection firing over/near Cuba. It looks like it could be associated with the broad area of low pressue (maybe some SWerly inflow) or is this just normal afternoon T-storms over Cuba

[N2DaTropics]

:uarrow:

That track is horrible. Would put us here here in tampa area and pasco on the mainly drier side. We need the rain. Ill hope for a more south track but most likely not going to happen.

I really feel your pain...up here in the NW Panhandle we are absolutely begging for rain...the Apalachicola River in Blountstown is down to 1 ft....I talked with some men who work the Division of Forestry here in Bay County and they are completely fatigued from all of the wildfires...we were on the dry side of Alberto and didn't get hardly anything out of it and it looks like a very similar scenario for this next potential system...

[skysummit]

I still don't understand all the need for rain in Florida. From everything I look at and everyone I talk to, Florida is close to average when it comes to rainfall. Only the panhandle and Central Florida are moderately dry. Everywhere else is normal.

[Aquawind]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 23 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS).
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/1800Z A. 25/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 24/1545Z C. 25/0915Z
D. 28.0N 77.5W D. 29.0N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 2200Z E. 25/1100Z TO 1830Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUED 6 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
ECD

[Scorpion]

I still don't understand all the need for rain in Florida. From everything I look at and everyone I talk to, Florida is close to average when it comes to rainfall. Only the panhandle and Central Florida are moderately dry. Everywhere else is normal.

Agreed. Some people are just obsessed with flooding and ruined days .

[Stratusxpeye]

I still don't understand all the need for rain in Florida. From everything I look at and everyone I talk to, Florida is close to average when it comes to rainfall. Only the panhandle and Central Florida are moderately dry. Everywhere else is normal.

Well tell that to my brown grass and completely dry ponds and lakes in all the town parks and ponds. Im in central florida and the previus poster is in NW Panhandle both in yellow on that map. But Since I've been living here I've never seen it so dry.

[skysummit]

...and I'm in the red area, and I guarantee you there are cracks in the ground wide enough that a whole cow can fall into.

[AnnularCane]

:uarrow:

That track is horrible. Would put us here here in tampa area and pasco on the mainly drier side. We need the rain. Ill hope for a more south track but most likely not going to happen.

Yes, but that could change. They are just guessing on a center now, aren't they?

[wxmann_91]

#2 is a very unlucky number, seems that TD 2's never make it tropical storm status in most years. The track and intensity for this system, if it develops, might be similar to TD 7 back in 2003.

[Stormcenter]

...and I'm in the red area, and I guarantee you there are cracks in the ground wide enough that a whole cow can fall into.

It's hard to believe the area in SE La. (especially N.O. metro area) were dealing with Katrina flooding less than a year ago and now they are bone dry.

[skysummit]

...and I'm in the red area, and I guarantee you there are cracks in the ground wide enough that a whole cow can fall into.

It's hard to believe the area in SE La. (especially N.O. metro area) were dealing with Katrina flooding less than a year ago and now they are bone dry.

Not to mention the ridiculous heat. Right now my digital thermometer in the shade reads 100.0 with 37% humidity. We're lucky the humidity is kind of low today because it's already getting hard to breath and it's only June.

[gurutc]

For what it's worth, the water temp at the Folly Beach (Charleston barrier island) Pier has gone up almost 2 degrees F this week thanks to the hot and beautiful high blocking this system in place all week.

[KG4HPN]

The map you have from TWC shows drought conditions, which measures average rainfall. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index shows how DRY an area actually is. My county, Volusia, is at 593 on a scale from 0-799 (where over 700 indicates desert conditions).

Now, considering that we're tropical and full of drying out, very large leafed, plants... 24 new brush/wildfires started yesterday. We have already surpassed in acres all of what burned last year.

It's dry.

-Jet

[zoeyann]

Not to mention the ridiculous heat. Right now my digital thermometer in the shade reads 100.0 with 37% humidity. We're lucky the humidity is kind of low today because it's already getting hard to breath and it's only June.

You got that right. I go blind and my eyes burn with the sun angle at certain parts of the day. the rain the other day just ran off because the ground was so dry before now I have those huge mud cracks in the yard like you would see in the desert. If it is this bad in June I am going to have to buy stock in deoderent by August.

[CHRISTY]

i really dont think its looking that great right now.....here are a few images.

[Stormcenter]

i really dont think its looking that great right now.....here are a few images.

I agree but we all know these things can ramp up quickly overnight.