Gamma No Threat to FL

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where do you think it will become ET?

Just East of FL

[Air Force Met]

Where do you think it will become ET?

Off the east coast of Florida.

[brunota2003]

So, what do you guys think the main threat to florida will be??? Severe Weather??? Flooding??? Winds???

[mike815]

yes come on id really like to know too.

[DESTRUCTION5]

So, what do you guys think the main threat to florida will be??? Severe Weather??? Flooding??? Winds???

Not much at all...Rain...ALbeit very little...With wind gusts to 35 MPH...THe Sig item for FL will be the cold to follow...With the NEster setting up it could drive Low 40's and windchills all the way into the palm beaches for Thanksgiving eve...

[mike815]

oh ok i sure like the cold.

[StrongWind]

Where do you think it will become ET?

Off the east coast of Florida.

Help!

I have a basic understanding of the mechanics for a tropical system. I've read some definitions of what extratropical means but am still confused.

Where can I find something to really understand what it means to 'become' extratropical.

Thanks, anyone.

[Forecaster Colby]

Generally, a Tropical, Subtropical, or Extratratropical system displays these charictaristics:

Tropical: Deep convection concentrated right around the center, winds in a fairly tight core. Generally, Tropical systems are not hard to identify.

Subtropical: Some convection near the center, with the rest in a large, powerful convective band, or a ring well away from the center (looks like a 120mile eye). Vince was (probably) subtropical for much of his lifetime. Also, think of a storm like Katrina a day or two after landfall, where the convection speeds ahead of the center.

Extratropical: No deep convection near the center, usually with a very broad and (comparatively) weak wind field. The Perfect Storm was an exceptionally strong Extratropical cyclone, with winds at minimal hurricane force over a gigantic area.

[gatorcane]

just checked the NHC forecast.

been travelling all day.

Exactly what I though 2 days ago....

S. Florida here we go (again)

[gatorcane]

So many people have bashed my forecasts but yet here we are with a T.S. targeting S. Florida:

Here is what one member wrote jk something...:

Please eat crow for me

boca_chris, why are you always so compelled to hype every little blob of showers as a tropical cyclone for South Florida? Its been so frustrating having to see these threads trying to scare Floridians needlessly.

Still no closed circulation. Still no tropical cyclone. Its going east of FL anyway, except for perhaps a couple of showers. Nothing to be concerned about, and certainly nothing to scare people over...

Yet another post:

Can we close this thread? It is obvious to most by now that there will not be a threat nor is it growing to Florida.

Yet another:

True. There is no way a that storm track [through S. FL] verifies with those upper levels winds

[gatorcane]

I'm not forecasting a major hurricane here BUT...

S. Floridians should *not* underestimate Gamma for two reasons:

1) Tropical storm force winds and gusts can do damage and knock power out. Considering S. Florida is already battered, it won't take much.
2) The cold front/Gamma combination spells TROUBLE for the wind gradient that will develop....the cold front may be able to energize Gamma's "backside" (when the winds will shift to the NNW and be amplified by the cold front)

[Jevo]

LMAO.. although I did say that when you were forecast Wilma at Tampa... I was bound to board up here in Coral Springs and glad i did...... We've all eaten crow in our life and your are no different...

We never did take that "off-line"

[Thunder44]

Well it looks that the GFDL is on crack. Take a look at the 0z run tonight. It shows moving north of Cuba as a 75kt to 85kt hurricane, but it misses Florida to the east this time.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[Recurve]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.
GFDL track could be a little farther from my back yard. Please? 978 mb CP wit' max winds 100 knots (@950mb)? No, no thank you. As Bartelby said, "I would prefer not to."

Well, at least the boat is already destroyed. And the surge would be from the OS this time.

I don't expect this will veryfy, but the GFDL has upset me one too many times this year. I would like to nominate the GFDL to be taken out and chainsawed at dawn. No wait, we need the chainsaws for the work party tomorrow...

The doggy tranquilizer and about 6 JD on the rocks helped a lot. I am much calmer now. Storms are part of global balancing, insolation/exhalation, right? Oh, F@@$#%^%$&^ that.

BTW, who's the know-it-all who said acepromazine wasn't approved for humans? I find 25 mg works very well if followed by fine charcoal-filtered spirits.

All the NASCAR dudes were out tonight in the Keys looking for action. Hey...guess what guys...

[jusforsean]

Goodmorning all: Hoping to wake up and find that Gamma is a Gonna no such luck i suppose and whats with the eastern disturbance is this going to be a concern again? Come on people how many times can you replenish your condiments a year??? and to think i just had a new mattress delivered yesterday because Wilma decided to pee on mine:::
Lets see what the day brings::
Could someone pls update me on the eastern thing, thanks

[Windtalker1]

So, what do you guys think the main threat to florida will be??? Severe Weather??? Flooding??? Winds???

Tornados....enhanced by the cold front.

[jlauderdal]

Well it looks that the GFDL is on crack. Take a look at the 0z run tonight. It shows moving north of Cuba as a 75kt to 85kt hurricane, but it misses Florida to the east this time.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

gfdl track is about right but intensity is on crack so just relax and prepare for windy rainy conditions.

[mike815]

yUP Some rain and gusty conditions.

[Flakeys]

Well, at least the boat is already destroyed. And the surge would be from the OS this time.

Thanks Recurve. Us O/S guys got whacked during Rita. No More!

[mike815]

Tru how much more can we take.