Invest 93L Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CHRISTY]

lets see if this thing continues to flare over night... i think that will be the key!

[CHRISTY]

[brunota2003]

5:30 TWO:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN.
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THIS SYSTEM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THEY FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM HAD WINDS TO NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IT DID NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
MEANWHILE...A NEARBY BUT SEPARATE WEATHER SYSTEM...THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED VERY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...
CONTINUES TO LACK THE NECESSARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO QUALIFY AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
GENERAL AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EITHER THROUGH A
REGENERATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN...OR DEVELOPMENT
OF A NEW CYCLONE FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR NICARAGUA.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS COMPLEX
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
DOES NOT OCCUR...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

[fuzzyblow]

Thank's JamesFromMaine2 and Artist ...heuu I'm an artist too

[wxman57]

Stormernie I saw that it still moving NW I wonder if it will pull a Wilma type track.

Similar to Wilma, but farther east. You're behind a moderate cold front in south Florida now. It won't move behind the front.

I wouldn't call this a moderate cold front...I would call it a "fizzle out" cold front....made no diffrence in temps here in S FL.....there is to be 2 more fronts coming our way...one Sunday (barely noticable) and a stronger bigger one on Tuesday....I see no reason why this thing won't barrel through this minor cold front if it were to head N into the Gulf.

That was some cold front. The nudist colony in Pasco could probably wear their usual attire without goose bumps today. I was mowing and raking and perspiring. Fizzled out is right.

Dew points in Tampa are in the 50s now, and in the mid 30s just north of Tampa. High temperatures in the low 60s just north of Tampa, too. I'd say that's some pretty cool and dry air moving south through Florida. But it's not just the surface temps/dew points to consider. Look at the southwesterly jet stream along the frontal boundary entering the NW Caribbean Sea. No storm is going to pass that boundary.

[fuzzyblow]

Dew points in Tampa are in the 50s now, and in the mid 30s just north of Tampa. High temperatures in the low 60s just north of Tampa, too. I'd say that's some pretty cool and dry air moving south through Florida. But it's not just the surface temps/dew points to consider. Look at the southwesterly jet stream along the frontal boundary entering the NW Caribbean Sea. No storm is going to pass that boundary.[/quote]

Recurving NE ?

[Brent]

Dew points in Tampa are in the 50s now, and in the mid 30s just north of Tampa. High temperatures in the low 60s just north of Tampa, too. I'd say that's some pretty cool and dry air moving south through Florida. But it's not just the surface temps/dew points to consider. Look at the southwesterly jet stream along the frontal boundary entering the NW Caribbean Sea. No storm is going to pass that boundary.

Recurving NE ?[/quote]

Yes... it's not going to hit Florida. Probably Central Cuba then the Bahamas.

[CHRISTY]

[Damar91]

Brent,
Can I have that as a money back guarantee?

[greels]

Any thoughts as to whether or not this is going to have an effect on us here in the Turks and Caicos Islands?

Gretchen

[artist]

click on this link and you can see a video of the storm in Honduras - clickon the td27 residual button.

http://63.245.92.231/weather.htm

[JamesFromMaine2]

can some one please check this IR image and please tell me if it looks like theres the center right there where theres that little dot of -80C cloud tops. it looks like the -70C cloud tops around it is forming bands and going in toward the dot of -80C

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Damar91]

When I click on that link, all I get is an old image of TD27.

[jusforsean]

just curious when i run the model plotter on 93i 2 models have it going thru florida??????
http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm








[/img]

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051118 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051118 0000 051118 1200 051119 0000 051119 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 83.8W 15.1N 85.4W 16.1N 86.5W 17.5N 87.1W
BAMM 14.0N 83.8W 14.9N 85.2W 15.7N 86.3W 16.6N 87.0W
A98E 14.0N 83.8W 15.8N 84.9W 16.9N 85.8W 18.1N 86.3W
LBAR 14.0N 83.8W 15.4N 85.3W 17.0N 86.3W 19.0N 86.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051120 0000 051121 0000 051122 0000 051123 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.3N 86.8W 25.2N 81.6W 32.3N 69.2W 32.2N 53.8W
BAMM 17.5N 87.5W 20.3N 86.8W 25.3N 77.9W 32.7N 65.5W
A98E 19.7N 85.6W 22.8N 82.5W 27.1N 75.2W 29.2N 66.0W
LBAR 21.2N 86.3W 28.3N 80.3W 31.9N 65.4W 25.5N 55.4W
SHIP 34KTS 26KTS 17KTS 0KTS
DSHP 31KTS 24KTS 17KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 83.8W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 83.0W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 82.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z BAM Models.

[JamesFromMaine2]

windsat is showing 60kts winds around the center of ex-td27! not just a few places but alot of 60kts winds around the center

[wxman57]

just curious when i run the model plotter on 93i 2 models have it going thru florida??????
http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

You can't use the BAMs in a dynamic situation like this, they dont' take into account changing steering patterns in northern latitudes in this time of year, particularly. The LBAR is completely worthless as a tropical model and should absolutely never be used. I can't understand why the NHC runs it.

The only models you should look at for this disturbance would be the dynamic models - GFDL, GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, etc. All dynamic models take into account the changing mid and upper-level steering winds across the SE Gulf and NW Caribbean, and they all turn the system sharply NNE-NE across Cuba along the front on Sunday/Monday. It'll probably be transitioning to a non-tropical low by then as it wraps into the cold front. Could be a big wind storm for the Mid Atlantic coast through New England with heavy snow inland.

[Forecaster Colby]

O.O

Well it was strengthening earlier while the RECON was in it. I bet once the Nicaraguan system dissipates, we're gonna see a strong TS/weak Hurricane. The two are interfering with each other.

[JamesFromMaine2]

[Forecaster Colby]

Those are 60kt vectors! Whoa! I assume they're bad in some way, but that's still a LOT of 45-50kts.