Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Yea I do think Florida can get some rains from this. Let's just hope the rains move in and out fairly quickly if they do come. They need a break.

Would tend to disagree. Helene was a very poor rainmaker for us. We probably need more rain.

I guess that would depend on where exactly you are located.

Helene did not put much Rain in Florida. It gave issues to Georgia and the Carolinas, but it moved way too fast for most of our state. Barring the direct impact area's I dont think rain was all that significant of a factor for Florida.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

In fact Helene was the Driest dang storm i was ever in. we did not get any rain until well into the night

It was hot, dusty, dry and miserable wind for the first 6 hours. Really unlike anything i have ever associated with a tropical system and I was on the Dirty side in Hudson Florida. Precipitation was over us on radar but it just never made it down

[ScottNAtlanta]

There's a pretty good signal for heavy rain over Florida at a minimum. Anything beyond that fits into the unknowable category at this point. I'd disregard both the hype squad and the professional downcast squad at this point and wait for clarity...which will take awhile...pretty much just like every potential system.

Speaking of rains, interestingly we didn't get very much from Helene in Pinellas (I recorded about 1.5 inch total at my house from Wed night-Fri AM) so for those of us not subject to surge Debby was worse (had some water intrusion myself). Of course Helene was catastrophic for those who were, and I'd rather have the water intrusion I dealt with than for all those people to suffer on the coast.

For this one I could do without the rain and the surge.

I got 12.5 inches at my house in Atlanta...I can definitely say I do not want another storm coming this way for the rest of the season.

[wzrgirl1]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 918&fh=144

[wzrgirl1]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=162

[O Town]

The GFS has a much different track than previous runs. How this doesn't become stronger than just a TS though:

https://i.postimg.cc/Pq8WjhM9/floop-gfs-2024092918-sfcwind-mslp-caribbean.gif

Not a fan of how it seems to linger on the west coast for 24hrs or more. Even if it’s just an undeveloped low and and just brings rain….

[eastcoastFL]

In fact Helene was the Driest dang storm i was ever in. we did not get any rain until well into the night

It was hot, dusty, dry and miserable wind for the first 6 hours. Really unlike anything i have ever associated with a tropical system and I was on the Dirty side in Hudson Florida. Precipitation was over us on radar but it just never made it down

Again, that depends on your specific location. There were places in the panhandle that had over a foot of rain. Here in Stuart we had a few heavy bands come through but not more than an inch of rain. But you also have a lot of places still saturated from the surge all up and down some of our gulf coast. They don’t need anymore rain.

[LARanger]

GFS 12z model run says what cold front? More GFS shenanigans me thinks!
https://i.ibb.co/YZJ84bn/floop-gfs-2024092912-sfcwind-mslp-gom.gif

Did that just "lol j/k" at Florida then smack New Orleans?

[hipshot]

GFS 12z model run says what cold front? More GFS shenanigans me thinks!
https://i.ibb.co/YZJ84bn/floop-gfs-2024092912-sfcwind-mslp-gom.gif

Did that just "lol j/k" at Florida then smack New Orleans?

That's what it looked like on that run. It looked like a low also hit the Houston area before that.

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS…


12z ECENS…

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This system
is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico
during the latter portion of this week. Interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[otowntiger]

It looks like the GFS, CMC and the Euro all take a system from the general area of the BOC across the gulf and over the FL peninsula by Monday/Tuesday next week- ranging from a weak TD to Cat 1 cane. Decent agreement for now. ICON forms a storm in the BOC and has it drifting slowly north and that’s where it ends since it only goes out 120 hours.

:edit: my comments above based on the overnight (12z) runs - of course since then the GFS pivots to bring a low pressure center to the northern gulf coast after it looked like it was on to a little consistency, lol. (See runs posted by Ivsnhater below)

[Ivanhater]

Solid western shift in this mornings models



Sent from my motorola razr plus 2023 using Tapatalk

[Frank P]

06z GFS run showing multiple lows

[Frank P]

06z ICON overall set up is similar to the Oz and would most likely track it east over the GOM towards the west coast of FL.

[GCANE]

It appears GFS and ICON are onto a 700mb vort that develops just offshore of Mexico in the EPAC.
It crosses the IoT and spins up in the BoC.
Lots of high CAPE and TPW being fed into it from the EPAC and W Carib.
Will be in a small ARWB generated by a trof over TX.
Good setup.

[Frank P]

CMC similar to the EURO with a weak system to the west coast of FL but has a new system in the S GOM 10 days out.

[cycloneye]

Important change of the timing at 8 AM TWO:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Michele B]

In fact Helene was the Driest dang storm i was ever in. we did not get any rain until well into the night

It was hot, dusty, dry and miserable wind for the first 6 hours. Really unlike anything i have ever associated with a tropical system and I was on the Dirty side in Hudson Florida. Precipitation was over us on radar but it just never made it down

Other things were weird to me, too.

Usually, as a hurricane passes by, the temps drop somewhat. Yes, plenty of humidity, but the temperatures do go down - even if it's just a few degrees. It didn't seem like that happened.

It stayed very warm throughout and just "felt" different.

[Teban54]

IIRC several ensemble runs for Helene, especially EPS, didn't start showing anything stronger than Cat 1 until about 3-5 days before genesis. Operational Euro didn't even develop it, which led people into thinking the best analog was Karen 2013, or a PTC that never becomes a TC before landfall.

I don’t understand the correlation of Karen 2013 to this hurricane. Anymore insight?

Some posts were making comparisons between future-Helene and Karen, and seemingly treating the models that failed to develop it/briefly developed it as set in stone.

Here are examples from two different users 3 days before Helene formed. (Not saying this system will experience the same.)

Best analog here would be KAREN 2013 if these trends continue. Note the "if". However, the EPAC may receive TWO significant hurricanes instead, both of which could be threats to Mexico.

I disagree, I think there's a distinct possibility the CAG storm doesn't become more than a moderate TS (think Karen in 2013). Not much support for the MDR systems. Not going much beyond 70 ACE is a possibility, especially if there's a 2013 like shutdown in October.