2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

Does anyone know how many members the GEFS and EPS have?

Thanks.

Including the control member

GEFS - 31 members
EPS - 51 members
Extended EPS (45 days) - 101 members

[skyline385]

Latest GEFS and EPS show plenty on activity in medium range

[USTropics]

Does anyone know how many members the GEFS and EPS have?

Thanks.

Including the control member

GEFS - 21 members
EPS - 51 members
Extended EPS (45 days) - 101 members

The GEFS underwent numerous upgrades in 2020 when the new FV3 dynamic core was introduced. Resolution was improved from a 33km grid to 25km and ensemble member count was increased from 21 to 31.

[skyline385]

Does anyone know how many members the GEFS and EPS have?

Thanks.

Including the control member

GEFS - 21 members
EPS - 51 members
Extended EPS (45 days) - 101 members

The GEFS underwent numerous upgrades in 2020 when the new FV3 dynamic core was introduced. Resolution was improved from a 33km grid to 25km and ensemble member count was increased from 21 to 31.

I remembered the upgrade including the ensemble increase but couldn't find a source in the 2 mins I spent checking it. But yes you are right, the current member count is 31.

[kevin]

Surprisingly 12z ICON develops the first disturbance (the one near Florida around June 10 - 13 that GFS was enthusiastic about a few days ago before jumping to the current slightly later CAG disturbance further west) into a TD at +135 hr before landfall as a weak 1007 mbar system around 165 hrs. Won't amount to much either way, but who knows maybe it'll be worthy of a name.

[skyline385]

Surprisingly 12z ICON develops the first disturbance (the one near Florida around June 10 - 13 that GFS was enthusiastic about a few days ago before jumping to the current slightly later CAG disturbance further west) into a TD at +135 hr before landfall as a weak 1007 mbar system around 165 hrs. Won't amount to much either way, but who knows maybe it'll be worthy of a name.

https://i.imgur.com/y3AidAg.png

6z AIFS also showed a TD in same location. AIFS is very underrated at the moment, despite its coarse resolution it is out-performing the IFS (ECMWF HRES + EPS) for mid-latitude 500mb forecasts per ECMWF's own verification. The coarse resolution makes it difficult for it to accurately model tropical disturbances but I will still be keeping an eye on it for this season seeing how well it is performing for large scale features.

[kevin]

The 12z GFS also leans a bit more towards the first disturbance. It has a sort of middle solution where the original disturbance at around 120 to 150 hours eventually takes over. It prevents any real development of the second western disturbance later on, but does result in a 995 mb TS near Florida. With a notable number of Euro members also showing something (as well as ICON, CMC and Euro-AIFS) there is a pretty good chance imo that we'll see something next week. Whether it's 'only' gonna be rain or also a TC is still up in the air.

[kevin]

Speaking of CMC, the 12z run still leans more towards the 2nd western disturbance (the 1st disturbance is a rain-only event for Florida at 120 - 150 hrs) and sends it to Texas.

[Hurricane2022]

The 12z GFS also leans a bit more towards the first disturbance. It has a sort of middle solution where the original disturbance at around 120 to 150 hours eventually takes over. It prevents any real development of the second western disturbance later on, but does result in a 995 mb TS near Florida. With a notable number of Euro members also showing something (as well as ICON, CMC and Euro-AIFS) there is a pretty good chance imo that we'll see something next week. Whether it's 'only' gonna be rain or also a TC is still up in the air.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024060712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_eus_30.png

I think this could end becoming something like TS Colin '16, although nowadays that system would probably have been classified as a PTC, due to the abundant ugliness that it had

[LarryWx]

The 0Z/12Z UKMET runs have no TC in their textual output through 168.

[skyline385]

The 12z GFS also leans a bit more towards the first disturbance. It has a sort of middle solution where the original disturbance at around 120 to 150 hours eventually takes over. It prevents any real development of the second western disturbance later on, but does result in a 995 mb TS near Florida. With a notable number of Euro members also showing something (as well as ICON, CMC and Euro-AIFS) there is a pretty good chance imo that we'll see something next week. Whether it's 'only' gonna be rain or also a TC is still up in the air.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024060712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_eus_30.png

Euro doesnt have much on the first disturbance but does slightly develop a vortmax for the one behind it like the GFS. Of course this is the Euro with its weak bias so there are chances here

[kevin]

12z GEFS is lighting up with activity, here's an image for the coming 10 days. Of course there are even more TCs in the members during the 240-384hr range, but I wasn't expecting to see some model runs into the 970s mb within 10 days. Interesting model week ahead.

[HurricaneBrain]

I fully anticipate a 7-day lemon popping up on the NHC map over the weekend. Euro seems to be caving into earlier GFS solutions. Growing model support for a sloppy June GOM system next weekend.

[skyline385]

Caribbean popping off as the MJO seems to be here finally

[MetroMike]

When does the EMCWF non AIFS 12z model show up on Tropical Tidbits now? seem later now everyday

[Stratton23]

Seems like the Euro AIFS on tropical tidbits comes out every 8 hours or so

[skyline385]

When does the EMCWF non AIFS 12z model show up on Tropical Tidbits now? seem later now everyday

If you are using only tracking NATL, use Pivotal Weather for ECMWF HRES ("non AIFS" or IFS model). It loads there almost at the same time as EC-Fast on Tropical Tidbits.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full

[MetroMike]

When does the EMCWF non AIFS 12z model show up on Tropical Tidbits now? seem later now everyday

If you are using only tracking NATL, use Pivotal Weather for ECMWF HRES ("non AIFS" or IFS model). It loads there almost at the same time as EC-Fast on Tropical Tidbits.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full

TY for that.Not my fav display but it works.

[jlauderdal]

Caribbean popping off as the MJO seems to be here finally

The euro isnt bringing much precip to sefl, seems underdone but the gfs isnt laying down big totals either.

[Stratton23]

Massive increase from the EPS 00z! Many more members with a low developing, and interestingly the EPS is mainly concentrated in the western gulf
I use weatherbell, about 65-70% of the EPS members show some sort of low pressure in the western gulf