2023 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1675522763619188736




For those who can't see tweets, here is the message by Yellow Evan.

The European and American models agree on a tropical cyclone forming off Mexico later this week in response to favorable intraseasonal forcing. Its broad size and shear from a ULAC over Baja California may inhibit significant intensification, however.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles off
the coast of southern Mexico during the middle to latter part of
this week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system and a tropical
depression could form while it moves generally west-northwestward,
roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

GFS and Euro have another one in medium range, behind the 0/40 one between 216 and 240 hours. The difference is that GFS is closer to the coast and Euro is looking like a longtracker.

GFS




Euro

[Kingarabian]

The AOI looks to be another sprawling mess but with less of a ceiling compared to Adrian. Following system could be our first west tracker of the season.

[cycloneye]

The AOI looks to be another sprawling mess but with less of a ceiling compared to Adrian. Following system could be our first west tracker of the season.

GFS joins Euro on longtracker.

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure will likely form several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system and a tropical depression could form late
in the week or over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has been showing a gyre with competing vorticites. However, it is also an outlier.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has two longtrackers.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 3 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system and a tropical depression could form late
this week or over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, Euro also has the longtracker.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, Euro also has the longtracker.

https://i.imgur.com/mtZVkoy.gif

Possible we see the first major hurricane of the season if it can avoid the cooler waters that the -PMM covers. Conditions don't look to good yet.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the first longtracker will happen.

GFS





Euro

[Kingarabian]

Past 3 days, Euro and CMC at 00z/12z switch on and off development. GFS has been the most consistent.

[cycloneye]

Past 3 days, Euro and CMC at 00z/12z switch on and off development. GFS has been the most consistent.

Still think it will become the first major of the season?

[Kingarabian]

Past 3 days, Euro and CMC at 00z/12z switch on and off development. GFS has been the most consistent.

Still think it will become the first major of the season?

It should if it follows what the models depict.

[Yellow Evan]

Upper environment for first system looks acceptable but it needs to consolidate by Saturday morning if it wants to become a formidable system. That would give it a little under 3 days to intensify which assuming a climatological rate of intensification projects to be a 75 knot hurricane.



Second system needs to stay south to avoid cool SSTs but flow looks aligned with storm motion. If it does, this could be the strongest storm of the season.

[cycloneye]

The longtracker has been added.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system and a tropical depression will likely
form by this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward,
off the coast of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico early next week. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

GFS and Euro differ on the track of 0/20 but are the same on intensity of a strong hurricane.

The Euro route spends more time on warm waters much more than GFS that goes to north of 20N.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression will likely form by this weekend while it moves
generally west-northwestward, off the coast of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico early next week. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS continues to have the best UL environment I’ve seen in this basin this year. However, it is trending towards a larger system, though embedded within an excellent moisture envelope.