Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[LarryWx]

Happy Hour para-GFS is like a Mitch #2 that disintegrates within 24 hours. This model is definitely drunk.

[TheStormExpert]

Happy Hour para-GFS is like a Mitch #2 that disintegrates within 24 hours. This model is definitely drunk.

Which is why I’m not believing it. It’s smoking the goods!

[ElectricStorm]

Where did you get that conclusion from?

So basically we went from talk of a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean to talk of basically nothing or something weak. Oh how the tides change!

Going off the models and the fact that the only mode that really does much with this the GFS-P, and that doesn’t seem like a reliable model.

Like I said on the last page... models have been crap this year so even though some of them are trending weaker really doesn't mean a whole lot based on their performance this year...

[aspen]

All of the models are having problems with this. The GFS is too enthusiastic with a weakness in the ridge, the GFS-Para is too unenthusiastic about movement, the Euro doesn’t show anything, the CMC tries to develop 93L’s remnants in the gyre, and the ICON can’t even get the genesis location right.

I’m thinking the most likely solution is the gyre starting in the SWCar on October 19th and moving generally NW as it develops into a TC within 24-72 hours of that date, before eventually getting tugged north and impacting Cuba.

[EquusStorm]

I definitely have my eyes on upper level conditions whenever genesis eventually happens. We know water temperatures can support a pretty high end system but as we saw with Delta, little wrenches thrown in like moving a bit out from under the ULAC and getting sheared to pieces can disrupt an otherwise pristine environment. But if it becomes a very slow mover like Para was suggesting earlier (not likely) could be big trouble. High potential ceiling, low confidence; lotta people need to watch.

[SFLcane]

O0z Gfs stronger and trended westward from previous 18z run just missing SFL.

[CrazyC83]

This feels like a 2012 deja vu...how does the long-range setup compare to during Sandy?

[underthwx]

Up to 30 % through 5 days....

[crownweather]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1316965039203561474

[LarryWx]

0z GEFS: mean not as far east as the 18Z with still a majority of the TC members moving quickly over Bahamas but several getting left behind and then moving into the GOM:





Two hit S FL early with one of those looping back down into the Caribbean. Two go into the Gulf and then hit W FL. One of those then goes up the coast just offshore giving the SE coast ~6-8" of rainfall. Another slow mover later hits S FL and then like Hurricane King of 1950 then goes up the peninsula. Still 4 members with a H moving very slowly in the W Car on 10/29 (see next post)! I guess they're trying to be the next version of Mitch.

[LarryWx]

Still 4 H members out of 31 total in the W Car as late as 10/29 with one of those that had hit S FL much earlier and then looped back down!

[LarryWx]

End of the marathon 0Z GEFS still has those 4 canes with one hitting Keys/far S FL and 2 of the other 3 likely on the way to FL....so I estimate a respectable 8 of the 31 members hit or are about to hit FL as of the end...so FL far from being out of the woods:

[N2FSU]

0z Euro +216



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[chris_fit]

Subtle W shift (when compared to the 00Z) on the 06Z GFS

[SFLcane]

06z gfs shifted westward once closer to SFL. Interesting if these trends continue

[SFLcane]

Subtle W shift (when compared to the 00Z) on the 06Z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/8wdd9dz.png

It shifted west on the 00z and now again on the 06z.

[SFLcane]

[AJC3]

0z Euro +216
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201016/c827fa4bd82fb3b1f94a61e1d4d55ed2.jpg

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it still doesn't do much at all with the NW Caribbean disturbance, and instead develops a separate baroclinic low over the eastern GOMEX, which it takes rapidly NE to NNE through the SE CONUS.

[SFLcane]

I am not liking these gfs trends...

[toad strangler]

I am not liking these gfs trends...

https://i.postimg.cc/cHNF3YVS/1-F8-E8-EFD-7316-4-FF1-BDB9-2586-E4-BC8222.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/90DwFgJF/CB1-CC5-D2-A28-E-421-C-8-ADA-EA85900-B7272.jpg

WAY too close for comfort being 200 plus hours out. It's not like this will stick on a rail every run.