Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[HurricaneBelle]

Something I have never seen before: echoes over extreme north Pinellas county moving west, while echoes over the south county are moving east, as seen in the last few frames here:

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=4

[Hammy]

Something I have never seen before: echoes over extreme north Pinellas county moving west, while echoes over the south county are moving east, as seen in the last few frames here:

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=4

Could be that the westward-moving ones are storms/upper air based rainfall being pushed by the shear.

I also sat and stared at the high-speed loop for awhile, and it looks like any center that may be there is due west of Pasco County and south of Cedar Key.

[Nimbus]

Most of what can be seen in the radar loops is the mid or upper trough circulation.

http://www.intellicast.com/national/rad ... imate=true

Pressure out at the Tampa bay buoy is not terribly low but relative to the 1017 mb high that is supposed to be nearby it might be.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EDT.

Luis posted an official obs that said there was a low level trough a few degrees further south.
The shear is bringing in some drier air over the northern gulf so we might get lucky and the whole mess will just dissipate.

I've seen several pieces of energy get pulled up and out off the east coast but the shear there is still fairly high too.

Unless a low closes off in the gulf that conveyer belt of moisture is going to continue to stream ENE over Florida

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[gatorcane]

Seems the shear has picked up. This has no chance unless it drops. Now we see why the models are not developing it. It did look like it was trying to develop earlier.

[Nimbus]

Seems the shear has picked up. This has no chance unless it drops. Now we see why the models are not developing it. It did look like it was trying to develop earlier.

Something moving north again tonight should move inland near Cedar key.
Hammy saw it without the vectored radar.

http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi ... ightning=0

[NCSTORMMAN]

Seems the shear has picked up. This has no chance unless it drops. Now we see why the models are not developing it. It did look like it was trying to develop earlier.

Something moving north again tonight should move inland near Cedar key.
Hammy saw it without the vectored radar.

http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi ... ightning=0

Last few radar loops I could swear that I see something spinning in the center of all the convection and to the southeast of the convection (big ball of it) that moved to the middle of the Gulf of Mexico earlier today because of shear.

[TheStormExpert]

Seems the shear has picked up. This has no chance unless it drops. Now we see why the models are not developing it. It did look like it was trying to develop earlier.

That's why the UKMET and NAVGEM are out to lunch!

[TheStormExpert]

It's not, in fact it is weakening and becoming more elongated due to such strong and persistent NE shear. Bryan Norcross on TWC said that due to it weakening the rain in Florida will become less widespread and numerous as upper air support lessens.

[NCSTORMMAN]

:uarrow: It's not, in fact it is weakening and becoming more elongated due to such strong and persistent NE shear. Bryan Norcross on TWC said that due to it weakening the rain in Florida will become less widespread and numerous as upper air support lessens.

When is the shear forecasted to weaken?

[Hammy]

I just did a quick check of the models, we have the closest thing to model consensus so far with the CMC, Euro, and GFS all developing a low-end tropical storm near Alabama in about 144 hours, and oddly the UK model is now showing what the Euro was showing days ago with a strong storm off the Northeast, after sticking to the Gulf for days. This is like a really bad sporting match...

[gatorcane]

I just did a quick check of the models, we have the closest thing to model consensus so far with the CMC, Euro, and GFS all developing a low-end tropical storm near Alabama in about 144 hours, and oddly the UK model is now showing what the Euro was showing days ago with a strong storm off the Northeast, after sticking to the Gulf for days. This is like a really bad sporting match...

Yeah the models just can't get a hold on this situation. Even the Euro has been fooled and that says a lot!

[Hammy]

Yeah the models just can't get a hold on this situation. Even the Euro has been fooled and that says a lot!

Something just occurred to me so I'll post it, I am beginning to wonder if the UK model is on to something and that we are in the 'dead period' of the Euro's medium range forecasts (where it drops things and it reappears later) so the next two days of runs will actually be quite telling.

[Dean4Storms]

Bones might be calling on this low.

[NCSTORMMAN]

New Convection firing over spot where the low is. Even better than last night when most of the convection had died out already. Maybe it is getting its act together after all. How long does it stay in the Gulf of Mexico though?

[NDG]

:uarrow: It's not, in fact it is weakening and becoming more elongated due to such strong and persistent NE shear. Bryan Norcross on TWC said that due to it weakening the rain in Florida will become less widespread and numerous as upper air support lessens.

I don't see any significant lessening of the heavy rains for the FL Peninsula through at least the next 7 days, southwesterly moist airflow will continue with a weakness at the mid levels staying put near us, recipe for a wet pattern remaining.

[Hammy]

I personally think the Gulf system itself is dead, but the door still seems open for another piece of energy to develop on it.

[Dean4Storms]

New Convection firing over spot where the low is. Even better than last night when most of the convection had died out already. Maybe it is getting its act together after all. How long does it stay in the Gulf of Mexico though?

Shear is still screaming and it is running out of water, add some drier air and just don't see it.

[NCSTORMMAN]

New Convection firing over spot where the low is. Even better than last night when most of the convection had died out already. Maybe it is getting its act together after all. How long does it stay in the Gulf of Mexico though?

Shear is still screaming and it is running out of water, add some drier air and just don't see it.

Same here it is just crazy how the shear came into place all of a sudden. Guess this thread should be dead by tomorrow then.

[Hammy]

Same here it is just crazy how the shear came into place all of a sudden. Guess this thread should be dead by tomorrow then.

I would keep a watch on both the thread, Gulf, and models, as there is full consensus now among the GFS/Euro/GEM of at least a depression/weak storm forming and moving into the central Gulf around the first few days of August (meanwhile there was never any real consensus with the EC storm possibility, nor anything moving into the Peninsula)