Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

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KFDM Meteorologist
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#221 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:43 am

southerngale wrote:JB tweet about 4 hours ago:

Should have 6 named systems by Sep 1, 8 or 9 by the 10th. Western gulf residents should watch for "home brew" next 3 days
I agree!
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#222 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:49 am

NAM 72H

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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#223 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:57 am

Looks like a surface low is forming east of Brownsville.

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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#224 Postby djmikey » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:01 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
southerngale wrote:JB tweet about 4 hours ago:

Should have 6 named systems by Sep 1, 8 or 9 by the 10th. Western gulf residents should watch for "home brew" next 3 days
I agree!



KFDM...I am also in SETX. I am hearing this is moving further south. Are we going to see any rain from this?
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#225 Postby TexWx » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:04 am

Looks to be moving just straight west, all the convection that is....
Maybe we won't get anything out of this....
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#226 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:09 am

Latest ASCAT

Not closed; but not too bad either at 25.8N 94W


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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#227 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:17 am

06Z GFS has initialized it as a warm-core



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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#228 Postby kevin » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:18 am

:flag:

Anything that might push this disturbance safely to the SW?
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#229 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:24 am

SREF keeps this offshore until Saturday afternoon



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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#230 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:25 am

djmikey wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
southerngale wrote:JB tweet about 4 hours ago:

Should have 6 named systems by Sep 1, 8 or 9 by the 10th. Western gulf residents should watch for "home brew" next 3 days
I agree!



KFDM...I am also in SETX. I am hearing this is moving further south. Are we going to see any rain from this?
This weekend! We'll be on the wet side...
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#231 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:27 am

Brownsville NWS:

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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#232 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:28 am

12z GFS (FWIW)

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#233 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:34 am

Okay so based on how things look right now where is this headed to if it develops?
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#234 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:38 am

This may be stalled for the next two days.

After that, depends if it spins up and how strong.

GFS shows a strong increase in theta-e Thursday afternoon.

That should help fire off convection.

I tend to believe it since MIMIC-TPW is showing a strong roll (boundary-layer convergence).




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#235 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:42 am

NWS LCH shows the low moving inland near Corpus, with rain along most of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.


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Re:

#236 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:43 am

Stormcenter wrote:Okay so based on how things look right now where is this headed to if it develops?


Well we were hoping you'd tell us, Stormcenter! :wink:
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#237 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:53 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:12z GFS (FWIW)

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Garbage, Low not going to form in the BOC. Watch out end of next week Western Gulf.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#238 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:57 am

I'm not sure about this one. Maybe because I have gotten burned from these Gulf lows this year :lol:

I'm not seeing anything more than a depression if anything forms. That is always subject to change though :P
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#239 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:03 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
Garbage, Low not going to form in the BOC. Watch out end of next week Western Gulf.


If you're gonna drop a bomb like that, please elaborate. :P
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI89T--Code Yellow

#240 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:03 pm

southerngale wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
Garbage, Low not going to form in the BOC. Watch out end of next week Western Gulf.


If you're gonna drop a bomb like that, please elaborate. :P



Wowzers Mr KFDM.....
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