T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[JonathanBelles]

floater 1 has been moved

[Jim Cantore]

As of now, the projected track tells me one thing.

The entire east coast needs to monitor this system.

[Grease Monkey]

The tracks right now remind me of alice and wonderland.

[AJC3]

00Z GFS has the H85 vortex near 20N50W at H66. It moves it due westward to 20N 56W at H120. That's only 6 degrees in 54 hours - i.e. a forward speed of a little over 7MPH. Looking height gradient beneath the H50 ridge to the north, that kind of slowdown looks pretty darn unlikely to me.

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z GFS has the H85 vortex near 20N50W at H66. It moves it due westward to 20N 56W at H120. That's only 6 degrees in 54 hours - i.e. a forward speed of a little over 7MPH. Looking height gradient beneath the H50 ridge to the north, that kind of slowdown looks pretty darn unlikely to me.

I was about to post the same thing. Under those atmospheric conditions, how fast would it really be supposed to be moving though?

<RICKY>

[AJC3]

00Z GFS has the H85 vortex near 20N50W at H66. It moves it due westward to 20N 56W at H120. That's only 6 degrees in 54 hours - i.e. a forward speed of a little over 7MPH. Looking height gradient beneath the H50 ridge to the north, that kind of slowdown looks pretty darn unlikely to me.

I was about to post the same thing. Under those atmospheric conditions, how fast would it really be supposed to be moving though?

<RICKY>

One would expect an increase in forward speed after a system turns westward after moving northwestward initially. this is especially true when one looks at the ridge to the north. A forward speed on the order of 10-12 knots would seem much more reasonable to me.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z GFS has the H85 vortex near 20N50W at H66. It moves it due westward to 20N 56W at H120. That's only 6 degrees in 54 hours - i.e. a forward speed of a little over 7MPH. Looking height gradient beneath the H50 ridge to the north, that kind of slowdown looks pretty darn unlikely to me.

I was about to post the same thing. Under those atmospheric conditions, how fast would it really be supposed to be moving though?

<RICKY>

One would expect an increase in forward speed after a system turns westward after moving northwestward initially. this is especially true when one looks at the ridge to the north. A forward speed on the order of 10-12 knots would seem much more reasonable to me.

Especially with the strength of the ridge... I totally agree that GFS is underdoing the forward speed.

[WeatherEmperor]

Given the strength of the ridge, it looks to me like the GFS especially out now to 156hrs, wants to push TD6 up through the ridge? Am I seeing this right?

<RICKY>

[Bgator]

If someone will post it 162 hours out, there is a break in the ridge, a ridge in atl, and a ridge over florida, but a big enough break for 6 to go through, im not sure what causes this ridge..will someone explain...!

[WeatherEmperor]

Well you can go here at look at the 00Z and analyze it.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

<RICKY>

[ROCK]

Some split in these models.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I've looked at it the last several runs. A weakness develops before the system reaches the U.S. and it turns north.

[Grease Monkey]

Some split in these models.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

"Not authorized to view this page" comes up.

[SouthFloridawx]

Some split in these models.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

"Not authorized to view this page" comes up.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[Bgator]

I've looked at it the last several runs. A weakness develops before the system reaches the U.S. and it turns north.

I see the weakness but do you know what causes it?

[ROCK]

try this and click on early track guidance. Should show you the 00UTC runs....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /index.htm


I say split though the two right tracks are the LBAR, BAMM, and CLIP.....the rest show a good consensus. Following the GFDL....

[stormtruth]

Try copying the URL and then pasting it into the browser address bar if clicking on it doesn't work.

[HurricaneHunter914]

IMO, we can't just look at one model run. We have to look at every single model so we can find a a consensus. Right now the consensus shows a NW movement with a gradual turn towards the WNW, but then again that could all change. We found that out during Ernesto.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I've looked at it the last several runs. A weakness develops before the system reaches the U.S. and it turns north.

I see the weakness but do you know what causes it?

I wouldn't look at any models beyond day 3 at this point. Though they may give you some hints at what a storm COULD do, they are usually quite wrong in these situations.

I would not count on a weakness saving the U.S. from TD#6 just yet..

We should have a better idea come this Friday/Saturday on whether or not this will head toward FL/GOM...head NW toward the mid Atlantic..or head out to sea.

[ROCK]

I've looked at it the last several runs. A weakness develops before the system reaches the U.S. and it turns north.

I see the weakness but do you know what causes it?

I wouldn't look at any models beyond day 3 at this point. Though they may give you some hints at what a storm COULD do, they are usually quite wrong in these situations.

I would not count on a weakness saving the U.S. from TD#6 just yet..

We should have a better idea come this Friday/Saturday on whether or not this will head toward FL/GOM...head NW toward the mid Atlantic..or head out to sea.

that seems like a long time but I forgot tomorrow is Monday and I am off work for the holiday......