Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

According to latest NHC Surface Analysis Chart, this wave has develop an area of low pressure (1010mb) which will be reflected in the next TWD at 2pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

[BigA]

If this wave can gain convection as it trudges westward, ill give it a solid chance

[O Town]

According to latest NHC Surface Analysis Chart, this wave has develop an area of low pressure (1010mb) which will be reflected in the next TWD at 2pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

That area not looking so hot this morning.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 311507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY OR FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Sanibel]

It has very loose curvature. It will either develop by the islands like Ernesto or not.

[ConvergenceZone]

thanx for the update Luis, looks like we are going to go into a lull, hard to say how long it will last though, but I"m sure at least through the first week or two of September.


This dry air eating up all of the convection in these waves is puzzling...

[Evil Jeremy]

ABNT20 KNHC 311507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

DEVELOPMENT...IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY OR FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

first yime they ever say that!

[Windsurfer_NYC]

According to latest NHC Surface Analysis Chart, this wave has develop an area of low pressure (1010mb) which will be reflected in the next TWD at 2pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

Note that 6 hours later the Surface Analysis removes the closed low: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

DISPT is written on both, which I take to mean "Dissipating"...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

According to latest NHC Surface Analysis Chart, this wave has develop an area of low pressure (1010mb) which will be reflected in the next TWD at 2pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

Note that 6 hours later the Surface Analysis removes the closed low: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

DISPT is written on both, which I take to mean "Dissipating"...

Nope, the one we are talking in this thread says New...Which means a new area of low pressure is expected to develop there...

[cycloneye]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W.
THE GFS MODEL IS FORECASTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO FORM IN 24 HOURS IN A LOCATION A BIT WEST OF WHERE
THIS WAVE IS SITUATED NOW.


From the 2 PM Discussion.

[tgenius]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W.
THE GFS MODEL IS FORECASTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO FORM IN 24 HOURS IN A LOCATION A BIT WEST OF WHERE
THIS WAVE IS SITUATED NOW.


From the 2 PM Discussion.

That sure does lead one to believe that they are expecting it to form.. I still doubt it...

[sma10]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W.
THE GFS MODEL IS FORECASTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO FORM IN 24 HOURS IN A LOCATION A BIT WEST OF WHERE
THIS WAVE IS SITUATED NOW.


From the 2 PM Discussion.

That sure does lead one to believe that they are expecting it to form.. I still doubt it...

They are probably paying attention to the models. The model solutions are quite convoluted, but they are unanimously developing something in this area by the weekend. In fact, most models feel that two systems will develop (one at around 35W the other around 20W)

[mettski]

[GeneratorPower]

Looking better with every frame. I haven't heard any pro met opinions on this one, but would like to.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Weathermaster]

Looking better with every frame.

For sure I have been watching all day, in the visible loop since this morning you see a nice rotation. Now convection has begun to flare up. I believe it is more develope than NHC is thinking. 24hrs-invest-36 to 48 TD..

[jhamps10]

i agree that it is looking much better today, I think that florence is going to wait until ernesto is finally dead and gone, and then we will still be up until 1 or 2 in the morning tracking this one, and who knows it may even be close enough for recon to get into it in a couple of days! More fun for us.

[Josephine96]

Maybe that'll soon be #6... keep it busy.. I like a busier tropics.. Keeps us on our toes..

[Aquawind]

Maybe that'll soon be #6

I think it has a very good chance..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[NFLDART]

Gonna need more No-Doz

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.