NW Carribean

[HurricaneHunter914]

August will be the month the Gulf Coast and Florida will have to watch out for major canes.

[mvtrucking]

Wow 57 that's a good bit farther than the models were predicting earlier, last I heared, it was only going to may it to the NGOM coast today then start retreating.
I didn't think the wave had any chance, but this tail of moisture that is being enhanced by the small upper trough over the Yucatan, I thought could if it stayed in the NW Carribean long enough, but if that kind of shear is realized then forget about it.
Maybe a weekend with no Invest huh.

I can't see it going any further south than it is right now.

Looking at the WV loop it is still diving pretty good, Watch out when it lifts though.
That's when JB will be hopping all over the gulf for development, after a trough lifts or spilts this far south.

Any idea when that is supposed to happen? (It starting to retreat)

[TS Zack]

We had Northerly winds most of the day yesterday.

It depends on what you classify a front as.

[Opal storm]

August will be the month the Gulf Coast and Florida will have to watch out for major canes.

Yes,and September and October.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Look at that low shear in the GOM. I don't care if this map is inaccurate, that is some pretty low shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[wxman57]

Look at that low shear in the GOM. I don't care if this map is inaccurate, that is some pretty low shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

The upper trof down to south LA is building southward fast. Should extend down to the southern Gulf by Sunday, increasing shear all across the Gulf and NW Caribbean.

[O Town]

Look at that low shear in the GOM. I don't care if this map is inaccurate, that is some pretty low shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

That is not the actual shear, it is the tendency. The actual shear is on this map, correct me if I am wrong somebody. It is 10kt in the GOM, still pretty low though.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If this wave was in the GOM right now, would it have a better chance of development than it does now?

[mvtrucking]

Look at that low shear in the GOM. I don't care if this map is inaccurate, that is some pretty low shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

That is not the actual shear, it is the tendency. The actual shear is on this map, correct me if I am wrong somebody. It is 10kt in the GOM, still pretty low though.

I believe you are right. But look at the shear just behind that.(Looks like 30-40 descending into the Gulf?)

[AJC3]

We had Northerly winds most of the day yesterday.

It depends on what you classify a front as.

Not surprising, since the frontal boundary was analyzed across central LA at 8AM yesterday. Most surface analysts will place the frontal boundary at the well defined wind shift, even if the discontinuity in temperature and/or dew point is lagging behind the wind shift by many miles.

[TS Zack]

Yupp....

I would call this more a wind shift because that dry air will never make it to us. It has made it in the mid-levels, hopefully we can get some storms to pop through it and then they would have the potential to go severe.

Anybody know who Bob Breck is, he is very up tight about his fronts. Therefore, thats why I brought it up because I will have to draw it later today when I go to work and he would shoot me if it was off the coast.

[White Cap]

Bob Breck uptight? Naahhhh... Now the big question - what did Viper say?

[Frank P]

Bob Breck uptight? Naahhhh... Now the big question - what did Viper say?

Yeah wasn't it Breck that was saying last year while Katrina was heading toward FL that she was NOT going to get into the GOM... and not to worry about it as it was going up the east coast... If my memory doesn't fail me now I do think that's what he said early on about Katrina... He served himself up a nice plate of crow, or at least he should have....

[skysummit]

Bob Breck uptight? Naahhhh... Now the big question - what did Viper say?

Yeah wasn't it Breck that was saying last year while Katrina was heading toward FL that she was NOT going to get into the GOM... and not to worry about it as it was going up the east coast... If my memory doesn't fail me now I do think that's what he said early on about Katrina... He served himself up a nice plate of crow, or at least he should have....

Yea that's him. Unfortunately that's what many people will know him by. I believe he's learned his lesson though. This year, I feel a little more confident listening to what he has to say.....plus, if he shows the wrong thing on TV, we can just blame Zack for it.

[White Cap]

I feel more confident in Bob this year too. I always get amused watching him because he is so antimated with his forecasting. One of these days he is going to get so excited his toupee will fly right off his head.

[Kennethb]

In Baton Rouge we had fropa early Thursday morning.

Today (Firday) have had low clouds most of the day so far, including some fog earlier in the morning, suggesting warmer air overiding a cooler air. Although it still rather muggy, the temp at 1:00 is only 84. A little sun is starting to make it through the low clouds.

[TS Zack]

plus, if he shows the wrong thing on TV, we can just blame Zack for it.

HAHAHA Real funny. He is getting old, always forgetting something. Around show time don't talk to him because he is paranoid. lol

Last year he blew katrina out the water, I nag on him all the time. Then I always tell him he should not believe the vipir model like he did last year. Chip is the same way as myself, he hates the vipir model. I am always teaching Bob something new about computers and now I taught he not to say never on air. I zackerized Bob Breck, that can't be good.

White cap be nice!

[Stormcenter]

Bob Breck uptight? Naahhhh... Now the big question - what did Viper say?

Yeah wasn't it Breck that was saying last year while Katrina was heading toward FL that she was NOT going to get into the GOM... and not to worry about it as it was going up the east coast... If my memory doesn't fail me now I do think that's what he said early on about Katrina... He served himself up a nice plate of crow, or at least he should have....

In his defense "every" weather personality/met had Katrina heading toward Florida on the Friday and even Saturday before her final landfall.

[White Cap]

I am sorry Zack. I like Bob - I really do. He makes me laugh and I do have confidence in him! I even like his Ohio accent! Oh gosh...is John Gumm going to get that Ohio accent too now? He never sounded before like he had an accent...but he may now! The only weather person that I can remember NOT saying Katrina was going to Florida was Zack!

[skysummit]

You know...what will we do if Bob ever decides to leave? I really don't care for anyone else now that John and David are gone. As for Margarett Orr....well, nevermind.