Another factor that may be causing Zeta to hang on longer may be the favorable MJO.
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cycloneye
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Another factor that may be causing Zeta to hang on longer may be the favorable MJO.
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Weatherfreak14
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cycloneye
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CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L
INITIAL TIME 18Z JAN 1
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 24.9 38.4 180./ 1.0
6 24.5 39.0 235./ 7.1
12 24.6 39.5 277./ 4.3
18 24.6 40.0 274./ 4.7
24 24.6 40.6 273./ 6.0
30 24.6 41.1 261./ 4.1
36 24.8 41.2 335./ 2.6
42 25.0 41.3 327./ 2.7
48 25.3 41.5 335./ 2.6
54 25.3 41.5 297./ .6
60 25.5 41.7 314./ 2.8
66 25.8 42.0 315./ 3.9
72 26.4 42.4 325./ 6.8
78 27.1 42.8 332./ 8.4
84 28.1 43.5 326./11.6
90 29.2 43.9 339./11.7
96 30.5 44.2 347./12.8
102 31.7 44.3 356./12.4
108 32.8 44.2 4./11.1
114 33.7 43.9 21./ 8.8
120 34.2 43.5 43./ 6.2
126 34.3 43.1 75./ 3.2
18z GFDL still hangs on Zeta for 126 hours.
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L
INITIAL TIME 18Z JAN 1
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 24.9 38.4 180./ 1.0
6 24.5 39.0 235./ 7.1
12 24.6 39.5 277./ 4.3
18 24.6 40.0 274./ 4.7
24 24.6 40.6 273./ 6.0
30 24.6 41.1 261./ 4.1
36 24.8 41.2 335./ 2.6
42 25.0 41.3 327./ 2.7
48 25.3 41.5 335./ 2.6
54 25.3 41.5 297./ .6
60 25.5 41.7 314./ 2.8
66 25.8 42.0 315./ 3.9
72 26.4 42.4 325./ 6.8
78 27.1 42.8 332./ 8.4
84 28.1 43.5 326./11.6
90 29.2 43.9 339./11.7
96 30.5 44.2 347./12.8
102 31.7 44.3 356./12.4
108 32.8 44.2 4./11.1
114 33.7 43.9 21./ 8.8
120 34.2 43.5 43./ 6.2
126 34.3 43.1 75./ 3.2
18z GFDL still hangs on Zeta for 126 hours.
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cycloneye
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01/2345 UTC 24.6N 38.3W ST2.5/3.0 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean
SSD dvorak sat estimates has Zeta as a subtropical system.
SSD dvorak sat estimates has Zeta as a subtropical system.
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060102 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060102 0000 060102 1200 060103 0000 060103 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.7N 38.4W 24.0N 37.8W 23.9N 36.7W 24.6N 35.3W
BAMM 24.7N 38.4W 24.0N 39.0W 23.5N 39.2W 23.3N 39.0W
A98E 24.7N 38.4W 24.6N 38.6W 24.8N 38.4W 25.1N 37.4W
LBAR 24.7N 38.4W 24.6N 37.8W 24.6N 37.1W 25.5N 36.7W
SHIP 45KTS 38KTS 28KTS 19KTS
DSHP 45KTS 38KTS 28KTS 19KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060104 0000 060105 0000 060106 0000 060107 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 34.3W 24.9N 35.4W 24.8N 37.0W 24.2N 38.3W
BAMM 23.1N 38.7W 22.0N 39.8W 21.7N 41.0W 20.3N 42.6W
A98E 25.3N 37.0W 25.5N 36.9W 25.9N 38.1W 24.9N 40.0W
LBAR 25.4N 35.3W 24.6N 30.9W 22.9N 26.6W 20.9N 22.1W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 38.4W DIRCUR = 200DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 38.4W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 25.5N LONM24 = 38.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 75NM
The 00:00z Model guidance has the same intensity as the 4 PM EST advisorie 45 kts.Also is making a small loop.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060102 0000 060102 1200 060103 0000 060103 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.7N 38.4W 24.0N 37.8W 23.9N 36.7W 24.6N 35.3W
BAMM 24.7N 38.4W 24.0N 39.0W 23.5N 39.2W 23.3N 39.0W
A98E 24.7N 38.4W 24.6N 38.6W 24.8N 38.4W 25.1N 37.4W
LBAR 24.7N 38.4W 24.6N 37.8W 24.6N 37.1W 25.5N 36.7W
SHIP 45KTS 38KTS 28KTS 19KTS
DSHP 45KTS 38KTS 28KTS 19KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060104 0000 060105 0000 060106 0000 060107 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 34.3W 24.9N 35.4W 24.8N 37.0W 24.2N 38.3W
BAMM 23.1N 38.7W 22.0N 39.8W 21.7N 41.0W 20.3N 42.6W
A98E 25.3N 37.0W 25.5N 36.9W 25.9N 38.1W 24.9N 40.0W
LBAR 25.4N 35.3W 24.6N 30.9W 22.9N 26.6W 20.9N 22.1W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 38.4W DIRCUR = 200DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 38.4W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 25.5N LONM24 = 38.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 75NM
The 00:00z Model guidance has the same intensity as the 4 PM EST advisorie 45 kts.Also is making a small loop.
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WindRunner
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cycloneye
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THE GFDL
INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IT IS
HARD TO GO AGAINST IT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT AND
DRY AIR HEADING FOR ZETA...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST
WEAKENING AGAIN AND AGAIN.
THIS IS LIKE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON ALL OVER AGAIN. MOST
OF THE CONVENTIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ZETA SHOULD HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATED BY NOW...WELL IT IS NOT INDEED...AND ZETA IS PRETTY MUCH
ALIVE AT THIS TIME.
The above quotes from 10 PM EST discussion from Avila.He always writes humorous things.
INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IT IS
HARD TO GO AGAINST IT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT AND
DRY AIR HEADING FOR ZETA...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST
WEAKENING AGAIN AND AGAIN.
THIS IS LIKE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON ALL OVER AGAIN. MOST
OF THE CONVENTIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ZETA SHOULD HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATED BY NOW...WELL IT IS NOT INDEED...AND ZETA IS PRETTY MUCH
ALIVE AT THIS TIME.
The above quotes from 10 PM EST discussion from Avila.He always writes humorous things.
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Margie
Even though Zeta's convection has dropped off and again been pushed to the NE, exposing the LLC, Zeta still looks good on satellite, oddly enough. The remaining convection has consolidated very close to the center, and, very importantly, some outflow is still occuring. The structure is still holding together well.
I'm wondering if it's possible the mid-level shear from the NW that is fueling some of the convection, is helping, because it has more moisture than the drier air to the SW. There is still some time before the diurnal max and so possibly by tomorrow morning Zeta will be able to build up some convection again.
Late evng update -- actually, dry air is eating into the convection, thinning it out, and making inroads from the east as it curves around.
But, significantly, what we have seen with these systems is that as long as there is some small amount of convection and some vertical structure, they manage to maintain on what would seem to be very little sustenance, regardless of whether convection grows or wanes, even if quite a bit of the LLC is exposed. So we can't gauge our expectations of how long the storm will last on whether it has significant convection. We also see over and over that the relationship to the shear is not as anticipated.
Stayed up way too late update -- Stewart's 4am discussion seemed on target to moi.
He didn't note though you can see the strong winds from the ridge to the N already having an impact, and pushing the upper level clouds from Zeta's earlier northern outflow to the southeast. With the late burst of convection, which seems to be continuing, it seems like the short comeback I anticipated earlier is starting, and Zeta may be looking pretty good by mid-morning, but I think now that the stronger westerlies are going to arrive earlier than the forecast 24-36 hours, unless Zeta ducks a lot more to the south, and convection could be gone by early tomorrow evening.
I'm wondering if it's possible the mid-level shear from the NW that is fueling some of the convection, is helping, because it has more moisture than the drier air to the SW. There is still some time before the diurnal max and so possibly by tomorrow morning Zeta will be able to build up some convection again.
Late evng update -- actually, dry air is eating into the convection, thinning it out, and making inroads from the east as it curves around.
But, significantly, what we have seen with these systems is that as long as there is some small amount of convection and some vertical structure, they manage to maintain on what would seem to be very little sustenance, regardless of whether convection grows or wanes, even if quite a bit of the LLC is exposed. So we can't gauge our expectations of how long the storm will last on whether it has significant convection. We also see over and over that the relationship to the shear is not as anticipated.
Stayed up way too late update -- Stewart's 4am discussion seemed on target to moi.
He didn't note though you can see the strong winds from the ridge to the N already having an impact, and pushing the upper level clouds from Zeta's earlier northern outflow to the southeast. With the late burst of convection, which seems to be continuing, it seems like the short comeback I anticipated earlier is starting, and Zeta may be looking pretty good by mid-morning, but I think now that the stronger westerlies are going to arrive earlier than the forecast 24-36 hours, unless Zeta ducks a lot more to the south, and convection could be gone by early tomorrow evening.
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cycloneye
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WHXX04 KWBC 021117
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L
INITIAL TIME 6Z JAN 2
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 24.3 39.4 265./ 6.0
6 24.2 40.4 265./ 9.0
12 24.1 41.1 258./ 6.8
18 24.0 41.5 259./ 3.4
24 24.0 42.1 266./ 5.1
30 24.3 42.5 308./ 4.6
36 24.1 42.6 207./ 2.4
42 24.1 42.9 280./ 3.5
48 24.1 43.3 260./ 3.1
54 24.2 43.8 285./ 4.7
60 24.3 44.5 278./ 6.3
66 24.7 45.0 306./ 6.2
72 25.3 45.3 333./ 7.1
78 26.1 45.6 338./ 8.6
84 27.2 45.7 355./10.7
90 27.9 45.7 1./ 6.5
96 28.2 45.7 6./ 3.7
102 28.5 45.7 350./ 2.9
108 28.5 46.1 263./ 3.6
114 28.2 46.8 250./ 6.2
120 28.2 47.9 267./ 9.7
126 28.5 49.2 285./12.6
6z GFDL mantains Zeta for 126 hours.
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L
INITIAL TIME 6Z JAN 2
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 24.3 39.4 265./ 6.0
6 24.2 40.4 265./ 9.0
12 24.1 41.1 258./ 6.8
18 24.0 41.5 259./ 3.4
24 24.0 42.1 266./ 5.1
30 24.3 42.5 308./ 4.6
36 24.1 42.6 207./ 2.4
42 24.1 42.9 280./ 3.5
48 24.1 43.3 260./ 3.1
54 24.2 43.8 285./ 4.7
60 24.3 44.5 278./ 6.3
66 24.7 45.0 306./ 6.2
72 25.3 45.3 333./ 7.1
78 26.1 45.6 338./ 8.6
84 27.2 45.7 355./10.7
90 27.9 45.7 1./ 6.5
96 28.2 45.7 6./ 3.7
102 28.5 45.7 350./ 2.9
108 28.5 46.1 263./ 3.6
114 28.2 46.8 250./ 6.2
120 28.2 47.9 267./ 9.7
126 28.5 49.2 285./12.6
6z GFDL mantains Zeta for 126 hours.
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cycloneye
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TPNT KGWC 021215
A. TROPICAL STORM ZETA
B. 02/1131Z (139)
C. 24.0N/6
D. 40.0W/4
E. FOUR/GOES12
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HR -02/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FT BASED ON DT, PT AND MET AGREE.
AODT: 3.5 (SHEAR)
CAMPBELL
Air Force sat estimates are going down as the center is fully exposed.
02/1145 UTC 23.7N 40.4W T2.5/3.0 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean
SSD dvorak sat estimates are almost the same from yesterdays data.
A. TROPICAL STORM ZETA
B. 02/1131Z (139)
C. 24.0N/6
D. 40.0W/4
E. FOUR/GOES12
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HR -02/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FT BASED ON DT, PT AND MET AGREE.
AODT: 3.5 (SHEAR)
CAMPBELL
Air Force sat estimates are going down as the center is fully exposed.
02/1145 UTC 23.7N 40.4W T2.5/3.0 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean
SSD dvorak sat estimates are almost the same from yesterdays data.
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060102 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060102 1200 060103 0000 060103 1200 060104 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.8N 40.4W 23.6N 39.6W 24.1N 38.3W 24.5N 37.4W
BAMM 23.8N 40.4W 23.4N 41.1W 23.0N 41.4W 22.5N 41.7W
A98E 23.8N 40.4W 23.2N 41.3W 22.8N 41.9W 22.0N 42.1W
LBAR 23.8N 40.4W 23.9N 40.2W 24.5N 39.7W 24.6N 38.6W
SHIP 45KTS 38KTS 29KTS 19KTS
DSHP 45KTS 38KTS 29KTS 19KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060104 1200 060105 1200 060106 1200 060107 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 37.5W 22.8N 37.9W 21.3N 35.2W 20.6N 32.1W
BAMM 21.7N 42.5W 20.8N 44.3W 20.0N 45.2W 18.3N 48.5W
A98E 21.4N 42.1W 20.5N 41.0W 20.1N 39.3W 19.4N 36.3W
LBAR 25.1N 37.0W 25.9N 35.8W 25.0N 34.5W 23.4N 32.1W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.8N LONCUR = 40.4W DIRCUR = 235DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 24.6N LONM12 = 38.8W DIRM12 = 238DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 38.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 100NM
No change in intensity 45kts.Moving WestSouthwest at 7kts.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060102 1200 060103 0000 060103 1200 060104 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.8N 40.4W 23.6N 39.6W 24.1N 38.3W 24.5N 37.4W
BAMM 23.8N 40.4W 23.4N 41.1W 23.0N 41.4W 22.5N 41.7W
A98E 23.8N 40.4W 23.2N 41.3W 22.8N 41.9W 22.0N 42.1W
LBAR 23.8N 40.4W 23.9N 40.2W 24.5N 39.7W 24.6N 38.6W
SHIP 45KTS 38KTS 29KTS 19KTS
DSHP 45KTS 38KTS 29KTS 19KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060104 1200 060105 1200 060106 1200 060107 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 37.5W 22.8N 37.9W 21.3N 35.2W 20.6N 32.1W
BAMM 21.7N 42.5W 20.8N 44.3W 20.0N 45.2W 18.3N 48.5W
A98E 21.4N 42.1W 20.5N 41.0W 20.1N 39.3W 19.4N 36.3W
LBAR 25.1N 37.0W 25.9N 35.8W 25.0N 34.5W 23.4N 32.1W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.8N LONCUR = 40.4W DIRCUR = 235DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 24.6N LONM12 = 38.8W DIRM12 = 238DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 38.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 100NM
No change in intensity 45kts.Moving WestSouthwest at 7kts.
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