95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mike815]

Im very dissapointed this is a very healthy storm what are they waiting for this is Delta hands down.

[HURAKAN]

Well, it's official, 10:04 PM EDT and no storm! Just heart-breaking.

[krysof]

Well, it's official, 10:04 PM EDT and no storm! Just heart-breaking.

They made the sheared Gamma a storm, but not this strong looking system.

[MGC]

I guess there must be some kind of office pool at the NHC and whoever has 25 named systems the rest of the forecasters don't want that person to win. Sure looks worthy of a name to me......MGC

[Hurricanehink]

Come on NHC. Just upgrade it. It is similar to Vince, and much stronger looking than many other iffy subtropical systems at their first advisory (Noel, Otto, Olga).

[Rainband]

Gamma was closer to land...more of a threat.

[cycloneye]

Gamma was closer to land...more of a threat.

Yes that is the difference.If this would be near the Lesser Antilles or in the GOM already it would be Delta.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EST on November 22, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

a strong and large non-tropical low pressure system over the central
Atlantic centered about 1050 miles southwest of the Azores
Islands is moving slowly south-southwestward. This system is
gradually acquiring tropical characteristics and could become a
tropical storm on Wednesday. Additional information on this system
can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service...under AWIPS header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Forecaster Pasch

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, it's official, 10:04 PM EDT and no storm! Just heart-breaking.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EST on November 22, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

a strong and large non-tropical low pressure system over the central
Atlantic centered about 1050 miles southwest of the Azores
Islands is moving slowly south-southwestward. This system is
gradually acquiring tropical characteristics and could become a
tropical storm on Wednesday. Additional information on this system
can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service...under AWIPS header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Forecaster Pasch

It is hard to beat such a classic insult to injury. With this latest Tropical Weather Outlook it sounds almost like it has actually gotten LESS organized when it really hasn't.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I thought according to the latest T numbers it was already fully tropical?

[Forecaster Colby]

It isn't, those numbers are definetly bad. QuickScat shows uncontaminated vectors of 50+ knot all over the place, and a blindingly obvious circulation...where are you NHC!

[JamesFromMaine2]

It isn't, those numbers are definetly bad. QuickScat shows uncontaminated vectors of 50+ knot all over the place, and a blindingly obvious circulation...where are you NHC!

You don't think this system is fully tropical?

[wxmann_91]

Gosh, give the NHC a break. They obviously see something we don't.

[WxGuy1]

Gosh, give the NHC a break. They obviously see something we don't.

Thank you. The NHC doesn't have any motive to NOT upgrade this area if they think it is legimately tropical or subtropical. There is obviously a good enough reason to preclude initiating advisories, or else we'd see the advisories initiated. They have quite a bit of data that many of us don't have, so you really shouldn't just look at an IR image (with a very low angle of incidence at that longitude) and say "stupid NHC"... Yes, they're not always correct, but it seems like some of us want to see Delta just for the sake of seeing Delta.

[Weatherfreak000]

Or not.




This is delta hands down. This makes Subby #22 and Lee look pathetic.

[superfly]

Or not.




This is delta hands down. This makes Subby #22 and Lee look pathetic.

Actually those had far more convection but they were sheared.

[Forecaster Colby]

Gosh, give the NHC a break. They obviously see something we don't.

Thank you. The NHC doesn't have any motive to NOT upgrade this area if they think it is legimately tropical or subtropical. There is obviously a good enough reason to preclude initiating advisories, or else we'd see the advisories initiated. They have quite a bit of data that many of us don't have, so you really shouldn't just look at an IR image (with a very low angle of incidence at that longitude) and say "stupid NHC"... Yes, they're not always correct, but it seems like some of us want to see Delta just for the sake of seeing Delta.

One of the great things about meteorology is that we DO have the same data, or at least very close. I run a site for a reason, namely, that the NHC turns a blind eye to far too many signs.

[WxGuy1]

One of the great things about meteorology is that we DO have the same data, or at least very close. I run a site for a reason, namely, that the NHC turns a blind eye to far too many signs.

Cool... Let's see some FSU Superensemble output. What are the T-numbers from each of the 3 main agencies? Hmm, I can only find 6-hourly METEOSAT images online... Yes, we largely have the same data, but they do have access to some things that MOST of us don't... My comment was more in response to folks that look at a single IR image and jump to conclusions, or take a T-number reading from one of the agencies and conclude that there's no way whatsoever that the low could be anything other than a 100% tropical storm.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

how old are you?

I can almost certainly guarantee you 100% that the NHC has more and better data than you.

When they feel like it has fully acquired tropical characteristics and can remain stable, they will initiate advisories.

Stop trying to egg it on.

[Forecaster Colby]

It's NOT a tropical storm. It's clearly subtropical, but it is CERTAINLY not the extratropical gale they're calling it.