92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[MiamiensisWx]

Oh tell me about it. The past couple days we have had so much rain in south florida its ridiculous and now this system to deal with? blah.

<RICKY>

Yep... meanwhile, areas that DO need the rain get either nothing or too little precipitation...

[MiamiensisWx]

peachy

Are you referring to me or the models? Sorry if I sound dumb...

[wzrgirl1]

Oh tell me about it. The past couple days we have had so much rain in south florida its ridiculous and now this system to deal with? blah.

<RICKY>

Yep... meanwhile, areas that DO need the rain get either nothing or too little precipitation...

I actually don't mind the rain and a little bit of wind ....it's the strong wind, lightning and thunder I can do without.

[MiamiensisWx]

I actually don't mind the rain and a little bit of wind ....it's the strong wind, lightning and thunder I can do without.

True... it can be cozy. Still, southern Florida has had very much rainfall this year so far.

By the way... when you responded to me about the models and said the word "peachy", were you referring to me or the models? Sorry if I sound very stupid...

[CHRISTY]

is it me our or is the convection getting more concentrated?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20051003 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051003 1800 051004 0600 051004 1800 051005 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.1W 23.0N 76.5W 23.2N 77.8W 23.9N 79.1W
BAMM 23.3N 75.1W 23.3N 77.0W 23.6N 78.6W 24.4N 80.1W
A98E 23.3N 75.1W 23.5N 77.4W 23.7N 79.2W 24.2N 80.7W
LBAR 23.3N 75.1W 23.4N 77.0W 23.7N 79.0W 24.4N 81.2W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051005 1800 051006 1800 051007 1800 051008 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 80.4W 28.6N 83.3W 31.5N 84.0W 37.6N 74.0W
BAMM 25.6N 81.4W 28.4N 83.7W 30.0N 85.0W 32.6N 80.7W
A98E 25.3N 81.9W 27.4N 83.0W 30.3N 82.3W 35.5N 73.7W
LBAR 25.0N 83.3W 27.1N 86.3W 28.8N 88.4W 32.5N 86.0W
SHIP 60KTS 73KTS 80KTS 71KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 57KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 75.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 72.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 22.7N LONM24 = 68.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Tropical Models for those who are interested to see the plots.

[ronjon]

can't get my models to load where are most of them headed?

Most of them take the system first into southeastern, southern, or east-central Florida.

From NWS Afternoon Disc:

Tallahassee:

THERE IS CLOSE AGREEMENT AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WITH CLOSING A LOW OUT OF THE DISTURBED AREA IN THE BAHAMAS AND BRINGING IT W THROUGH THE FL STRAITS REGION INTO THE ERN GULF. THE NAM SOLUTION IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE LOW AND IT TAKES THE LOW UP THE W COAST OF FL. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN WITH A HIGHLY LAND-INFLUENCED TRACK LIKE THIS.

Miami:

THE NAM DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH MOVES ACROSS KEY LARGO AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK TO NAPLES BY MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE DISSOCIATED AND MORE LIKE AN OPEN WAVE...NEAR ANDROS ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...KEY LARGO BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEST OF NAPLES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ONCE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE GETS AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BOTH MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WOULD BE IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CONNECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF VERTICAL MOTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY RAINS AND TRAIN ECHO EFFECTS. HEAVIEST RAINS MAY ACTUALLY BE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD ALL OF THIS WORK OUT AS THE GFS IS SHOWING.

Jax:

THUS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE TRPCL WAVE PASSES OVER FLORIDA TUE/WED POPS WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY (60-70%) ALONG THE COAST FIRST THEN LIKELY POPS SPREAD OVER MOST OF AREA EXCEPT NW PORTION. BY THURSDAY A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OF THE WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.


I dunno - seems like alot of agreement with the tropical disturbance entering the GOM and becoming a closed low.

[Ivanhater]

shift left in the 18z models....doesnt mean a whole lot right now

[SamSagnella]

shift left in the 18z models....doesnt mean a whole lot right now

Yeah, a shift to the left among the NHCA98E, the BAM suite and the LBAR....
...I'd like to see what what the 18z GFDL says before drawing any conclusions.

[Ivanhater]

shift left in the 18z models....doesnt mean a whole lot right now

Yeah, a shift to the left among the NHCA98E, the BAM suite and the LBAR....
...I'd like to see what what the 18z GFDL says before drawing any conclusions.

thats why i said "doesnt mean a whole lot right now"

[Derek Ortt]

Stan's outflow seems to be shearing that system, kind of like how Rita sheared Philippe

[Air Force Met]

is it me our or is the convection getting more concentrated?

I think it's you

The convection is no where close to the vort max at the sfc. Given the strong flow to the east of that vort max...it is highly unlikely anything will form close to the convection...which is still scattered and disorganized. Any low that forms (and I do agree there will be one form eventually) will form on the existant vort max unless the flow really slows down and some concentrated convection can develop and linger for a while. As Derek pointed out...you now have the dagger of death (strong outflow) coming from Stan...headed for 92L. You can see the cirrus screaming east across the southern tip of Florida.

[skysummit]

I really do not think this is anything to get worried about in the short term.

[wxman57]

Most of them take the system first into southeastern, southern, or east-central Florida.

From NWS Afternoon Disc:

Tallahassee:

THERE IS CLOSE AGREEMENT AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WITH CLOSING A LOW OUT OF THE DISTURBED AREA IN THE BAHAMAS AND BRINGING IT W THROUGH THE FL STRAITS REGION INTO THE ERN GULF. THE NAM SOLUTION IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE LOW AND IT TAKES THE LOW UP THE W COAST OF FL. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN WITH A HIGHLY LAND-INFLUENCED TRACK LIKE THIS.

Miami:

THE NAM DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH MOVES ACROSS KEY LARGO AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK TO NAPLES BY MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE DISSOCIATED AND MORE LIKE AN OPEN WAVE...NEAR ANDROS ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...KEY LARGO BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEST OF NAPLES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ONCE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE GETS AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BOTH MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WOULD BE IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CONNECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF VERTICAL MOTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY RAINS AND TRAIN ECHO EFFECTS. HEAVIEST RAINS MAY ACTUALLY BE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD ALL OF THIS WORK OUT AS THE GFS IS SHOWING.

Jax:

THUS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE TRPCL WAVE PASSES OVER FLORIDA TUE/WED POPS WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY (60-70%) ALONG THE COAST FIRST THEN LIKELY POPS SPREAD OVER MOST OF AREA EXCEPT NW PORTION. BY THURSDAY A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OF THE WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.


I dunno - seems like alot of agreement with the tropical disturbance entering the GOM and becoming a closed low.[/quote]

Why would ANY NWS office even look at the NAM for a tropical system? It's about the most worthless of models. I'd also point out that the mid-level circulation center is way back near 71W, not at 75W. Any LLC would likely form farther east in the convection than at 75W in front of the convection. This thing would really have to fly to reach Key Largo by tomorrow evening (over 500 nautical miles). Satellite indicates that it isn't moving so quickly.

I suspect that there may be two main focci for development, one east of the Carolinas and one in the eastern Gulf. Both systems probalby hybrid lows along the cold front. Very complex situation. Could be rainy for Florida and up the east U.S. Coast.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Haha those 18Z models hate me- 3 bring it up right towards the
bay...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO the path will shift East because the LLC will likely form further
east... but since the models underestimate the bermuda high

I think it will go west later in the period into the GOM...from there
it is a coin toss...

[Ivanhater]

it is highly unlikely anything will form close to the convection...
(airforce met)

Any LLC would likely form farther east in the convection (wxman57)


who do we believe?

[Air Force Met]

Why would ANY NWS office even look at the NAM for a tropical system? It's about the most worthless of models. I'd also point out that the mid-level circulation center is way back near 71W, not at 75W. Any LLC would likely form farther east in the convection than at 75W in front of the convection. This thing would really have to fly to reach Key Largo by tomorrow evening (over 500 nautical miles). Satellite indicates that it isn't moving so quickly.

I suspect that there may be two main focci for development, one east of the Carolinas and one in the eastern Gulf. Both systems probalby hybrid lows along the cold front. Very complex situation. Could be rainy for Florida and up the east U.S. Coast.

Agreed on ALL accounts. The very fact they are paying attention to the NAM for tropical development is a "little disconcerting" to say the least.

Second...agreed on development. The MLC to the east is the better bet...but that is a couple of days down the road. Also agree this looks to be a hybrid system...it will have the right upper level environment to develop one...I have a picture of Allison (2001) in my head (without the stalling and 40 inches of rain ) where there is a lot of rain on the east side and a bunch of cu on the west where the upper low is centered.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

it is highly unlikely anything will form close to the convection...
(airforce met)

Any LLC would likely form farther east in the convection (wxman57)


who do we believe?

Hopefully NOT the 18Z models... Cause I'd get whacked hard
if that happened.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Meet the Models that HATE ME:
I hope these do not verify...
18Z:

[Brent]

I especially hope the UKMET doesn't verify. Ugh... crazy.