Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[underthwx]

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible through the middle of next week while it
remains nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Nearly stationary?

Thats got me even more curious....

[ElectricStorm]

Not trying to be rude, but I am getting tired of the phrase "Happy Hour" in some of the posts about different models. I really enjoy this site, but that phrased is really over used.

I think the 18z GFS is the only one that has that title. Because it tends to make everything intense

[aspen]

18z GFS-Para squishes the 10/30 AOI again and has a developing/weak TC at 126 hours. Let’s see if it remains weak like the GFS or it explodes like the last couple of Para runs.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS PARA... What are you doing???


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[ElectricStorm]

I know some of the models are trending weaker... But I still don't trust any storm forming way down there in the SW Caribbean. Given the bathwater and very high OHC down there, depending on the upper-level environment, I think it can get rather strong. The models had a really tough time with Gamma and Delta down there, especially Delta. None of them showed Delta getting that strong until it was close to, or already formed. After watching the RI's of Gamma and Delta, anything that forms down there is automatically a big concern for me right now, regardless of what the models show.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS P with missing frames, weaker and smaller for sure:

[aspen]

Tiny circulation + GFS-Para + 18z run = probably another nuts run in terms of intensity and track

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM has been remarkably bearish on this system. Nothing even shows up on the latest run.

If something big is going to form, this model would probably be showing it, as it can have a bias for Western Caribbean genesis.

[Frank2]

A few observations...

Per the 8 p.m. TWO the NHC is statig a more typical disturbance for October that moves little. In fact the SW Caribbean season so-to-speak is almost year-round. That area generated a TS in February, 1950 that made landfall in Tampa...

But normally as it gets later very few tropical lows survive once they cross 20N, and especially 25N...

The GFS might have initialized the low further west, but as the other models they are trending weaker and to the east.

P.S. Winter is quickly making itself felt up north (very surprised to see a low of 7F for Calgary by this weekend).

P.P.S. I was looking at the Wilma photos, and from the outset that was a large low pressure area - I think most here at the time knew it was trouble if it consolidated.

[SFLcane]

18z Para Lol 929mb down there...

[aspen]

Tiny circulation + GFS-Para + 18z run = probably another nuts run in terms of intensity and track

Call it. 929 mbar and stalling near the Yucatán.

Let’s see how low the Para can go, just for entertainment purposes.

[underthwx]

I know some of the models are trending weaker... But I still don't trust any storm forming way down there in the SW Caribbean. Given the bathwater and very high OHC down there, depending on the upper-level environment, I think it can get rather strong. The models had a really tough time with Gamma and Delta down there, especially Delta. None of them showed Delta getting that strong until it was close to, or already formed. After watching the RI's of Gamma and Delta, anything that forms down there is automatically a big concern for me right now, regardless of what the models show.

Agree....probably the most rational assessment anyone can make at this point...

[TheStormExpert]

So basically we went from talk of a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean to talk of basically nothing or something weak. Oh how the tides change!

[TheStormExpert]

The NAVGEM has been remarkably bearish on this system. Nothing even shows up on the latest run.

If something big is going to form, this model would probably be showing it, as it can have a bias for Western Caribbean genesis.

https://i.postimg.cc/vTzKKhGN/nvg10-sfc10m-180-go-mex.gif

Basically the Subtropical Atlantic storm robs all the energy.

[toad strangler]

The NAVGEM has been remarkably bearish on this system. Nothing even shows up on the latest run.

If something big is going to form, this model would probably be showing it, as it can have a bias for Western Caribbean genesis.

https://i.postimg.cc/vTzKKhGN/nvg10-sfc10m-180-go-mex.gif

Garbage tropical model

[aspen]

Zeta refuses to budge in the medium to long range on this run. The GFS-P is definitely very confused regarding the steering currents after 7-10 days out.

[Loveweather12]

Where did you get that conclusion from?

So basically we went from talk of a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean to talk of basically nothing or something weak. Oh how the tides change!

[MetroMike]

Zeta refuses to budge in the medium to long range on this run. The GFS-P is definitely very confused regarding the steering currents after 7-10 days out.

What are you prematurely calling Zeta anyhow?

[aspen]

Zeta refuses to budge in the medium to long range on this run. The GFS-P is definitely very confused regarding the steering currents after 7-10 days out.

What are you prematurely calling Zeta anyhow?

This Caribbean system. It looks like any subtropical development will happen soon enough to steal the name Epsilon.

[TheStormExpert]

Where did you get that conclusion from?

So basically we went from talk of a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean to talk of basically nothing or something weak. Oh how the tides change!

Going off the models and the fact that the only mode that really does much with this the GFS-P, and that doesn’t seem like a reliable model.