Wave in Central Caribbean

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srainhoutx
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Re: Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#201 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jul 30, 2010 7:38 pm

Interesting to note the continued disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean. NHC stated the SW Caribbean could be favorable regarding development...

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#202 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Jul 30, 2010 8:30 pm

Looking very impressive tonight
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Re: Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#203 Postby Florida1118 » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:44 am

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
UNTIL IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

Does this mean Invest 91?
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#204 Postby BrianD » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:45 am

Indeed it is looking pretty healthy in this region
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#205 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:26 am

Convection has nearly totally poofed this morning, its the least convectivly active I've seen the Caribbean in a while!
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Re: Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#206 Postby Tropics Guy » Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:29 am

Went poof overnight, may refire when it nears the western Caribbean...........

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#207 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:32 am

Great example of how South America can rip apart a wave in the Eastern Caribbean if a wave hasn't developed prior to reaching the Eastern Caribbean (John Hope rule).
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Re: Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#208 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:05 am

It wasn't much of a wave to begin with. The hostile July Caribbean wiped it out. Meanwhile 90L rebloomed its convection.
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Re: Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#209 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:32 am

12z GFS develops this quite nicely

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Re: Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#210 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:36 am

12z Nam

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#211 Postby lester » Sat Jul 31, 2010 3:16 pm

18z nam at 36 hrs:

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Re: Wave in Eastern Caribbean

#212 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:03 pm

GFS still develops this

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#213 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:42 pm

Models quite keen on at least hinting development, though whether or not it makes it is uncertain thats for sure!
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#214 Postby rockyman » Sat Jul 31, 2010 8:07 pm

A ship is currently reporting a 1005 mb pressure off the coast of Colombia:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... 000&loop=0
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Re: Wave in Central Caribbean

#215 Postby andyis » Sat Jul 31, 2010 8:47 pm

I'm seeing some spin southeast of Jamaica, anybody else?
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Re: Wave in Central Caribbean

#216 Postby Macrocane » Sat Jul 31, 2010 9:01 pm

I see it too, I looked a the WV loop to see if it is an ULL but to my amateur eyes it is not, maybe is something at the mid level, maybe it's a low pressure is trying to form as the models have been hinting.
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Re: Wave in Central Caribbean

#217 Postby ROCK » Sat Jul 31, 2010 10:20 pm

its trying to consolidate a center. It was a pretty broad low to begin with....has model support so inclined to say this will develop before slamming into CA...even for 1005mb low current steering is west....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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Re: Wave in Central Caribbean

#218 Postby Recurve » Sat Jul 31, 2010 10:29 pm

GFS plows it along pretty much due west

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#219 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 01, 2010 4:30 am

GFS really wants to spin this up into at least a tropical storm before hitting Central America despite this system rapidly running out of real estate. So much for that weak bias on the new model I suppose. :roll:
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Re: Wave in Central Caribbean

#220 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:41 pm

I like looking at the MIMIC-TPW loop for early signs of rotation.. and it looks like it has some slight turning to the system as a broad low area... also shows a pretty good rotation on 91L as it hints of gaining TD status soon.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html
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