EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

[KWT]

Risk has gone up 10% upto 20% so it looks like the NHC are starting to think this one may have a cyhance, though most models don't develop this area for another 72hrs, which I think is reasonable enough.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

72 hours ... the NHC may increase the developing chances soon

[HURAKAN]

12z NAM @ 84 hours

[Macrocane]

ECM is very agressive on its 0z run with it developing a fairly decent system by 96hrs which turns northwards towards Mexico...

Though suych systems are not common in the early season, you don't often get landfalling systems in the early season in the EPAC, they are far morem common in late season.

Actually they're not too uncommon, especially in the last few years some examples:

1997 Andres
2005 Adrian
2007 Barbara
2008 Alma

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[clfenwi]

Relevant passage from the 16Z TWD:

TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO 13N91W.
STRONG SW WINDS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 84W-105W.
MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST OF EL SALVADOR BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE STRONGEST
WITH WINDS TO 35 KT WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS WINDS TO 25
KT.

[KWT]

Big blow up of convection there, if we do have a low developing within the convection then it won't take many pluses of activity from the convection to get something developing from this...

I'd imagine we may only be 12-18hrs away from an invest with this region, and the upgrade to an orange warning must be soon as well given the models are getting quite keen on developing this region, some getting going within the next 48hrs...

Also given the steering currents this ssytem would be a big risk for a landfalling system...

[Category 5]

Wouldn't be shocked to see an invest up tonight or tomorrow morning if the trend continues. And you always have to watch for crossovers in these situations.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 25 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED JUST OT THE WEST OF
NICARAGUA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

I'd expect some development from this system, see no reason why it should slowly develop over the enxt few days...I'm fully expecting 90E from this system very soon....

Also as others have said, a crossover can't totally be ruoled out as the energy will be pulled into the Caribbean region at some point I'd have thought.

[tina25]

NHC keeps upping the percentage. This could get interesting.

[cycloneye]

[Category 5]

Make that, invest by tonight.

[ronjon]

Check out what the 12Z GFDL run for 90L wants to do with this system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010052512-invest90l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[KWT]

Very impressive, thats a decent TS even when its not on the GFDL's grid so to speak...

I wouldn't rule out a crossover, even if its only the energy that makes it across, of course much is depending on just how far east it ends up forming of course.

[cycloneye]

Is now invest 90E.Go to active storms forun to continue the discussions there.Thread is locked.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108035&p=1984435#p1984435